Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card is headlined by Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot for a potential lightweight title contender fight.
Fiziev is the -150 favorite to bounce back following a loss, and he has taken most of the betting action.
Gamrot is always tough to beat, and with 22 wins on his record, he should provide a good challenge for Fiziev in Las Vegas.
Title Shot on the Line
In his latest fight, the 30-year-old fighter suffered a defeat at the hands of the BMF title holder, so that form has at least been franked.
Gamrot is known to be a tough fighter, like Gaethje, so it should be a good form guide for bettors looking at the UFC betting line of -150.
Therefore, Fiziev should have a clear understanding of what to anticipate. He was deeply disappointed with his strategy in the Gaethje fight, so expect changes.
“I don’t like this fight. I made a lot of stupid decisions. A lot of stupid decisions. I played his game. I go in and fight, like just want to make everything crazy,” Fiziev said.
“Game plan was try to use I.Q., like how he did. He did it perfect. He just played. He just tried to play and I tried to fight crazy. … Maybe I was excited in the moment, maybe I’m still young and stupid.”
The Kazakhstan fighter defeated Rafael dos Anjos in 2022 by knockout, and having wins like that on his record holds him in good stead for another highlight finish.
He also has knockout wins over Brad Riddell and Renato Moicano, who are tough to send to the canvas.
Our UFC bets Sep 23 are likely to feature Fiziev.
Underdog Gamrot Up for the Challenge
Boasting an impressive record of 22 wins and just two losses, Gamrot is a fighter you should not underestimate.
The 32-year-old Polish athlete secured a decision victory over Jalin Turner, which, while not particularly flashy, marked yet another solid win for him.
Gamrot was coming off a setback in the lightweight rankings following a loss to Beneil Dariush. However, a victory against Fiziev could potentially position him for a shot at the title in 2024.
He scored four successful takedowns against Turner, so that’s an area where he could dominate. The +120 betting online underdog opened at +125, so there has been money coming for him, and more money could come with live betting markets should he win the opening round.
Should Gamrot manage to take his opponent to the mat, he has the capability to grind out a decision win over the course of five rounds. He has previously submitted Jeremy Stephens and endured five rounds with Arman Tsarukyan.
He’s good enough to test Fiziev, and although we don’t think he’s as dynamic, he could go the distance and give Fiziev something to worry about.
Fiziev vs Gamrot Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting between Fiziev and Gamrot.
Fiziev vs Gamrot Fight Information
- Fight:Fiziev (12-2) vs Gamrot (22-2)
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
- Day/Time: Saturday, Sept. 23, 7 p.m. ET
- Fiziev vs Gamrot Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
Fiziev vs Gamrot Betting Lines
Fiziev vs Gamrot Best Bet
We have identified the best bet online value with Fiziev. Gamrot might be firming at the sportsbook, but Fiziev is the better fighter.
He has the power advantage, and he just needs to stay off the canvas against the wrestler.
It could go the distance, but we’re picking Fiziev to end the fight early. Under 4½ rounds pays even money, which is worth including in your UFC selections.