UFC 268 saw most of its underdogs get demolished, but this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night could see a return to glory for underdog bettors. We’re putting together a four-leg parlay comprised mainly of underdogs who could just cash this 20-1 ticket on the UFC lines.
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 13, 1 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, United States
- Watch on: ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Four-Leg Parlay With Three Dog Shots
Nzechukwu and Jung Go Long
A pair of light heavyweights kick off the card as Kennedy Nzechukwu and Da Un Jung go to war. The former is a notoriously slow starter and low-volume fighter while the latter gets off fast at the expense of slowing down. If you’re betting online on a side here, live bet Nzechukwu (9-1-0). But the play here is for the fight to go over 2.5 rounds.
Jung (14-2-1) will not be able to KO Nzechukwu, who is incredibly durable and the ever-so-patient Nzechukwu may not land that perfectly placed blow on Jung. There may be a late finish for Nzechukwu here but at -150, this one anchors our parlay.
Pick: Over 2½ (-150)
Lee Edges Calvillo
Andrea Lee could finally be living up to her promise as a future contender and she’ll build off her submission win over Antonina Shevchenko with another “W” here. Lee (12-5-0) should be able to fend off Cynthia Calvillo and outstrike her on their feet. Calvillo (9-3-1) may have only lost to the division’s best, but her knockout loss to Jessica Andrade was ugly.
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The online gambling folks are leaning on Calvillo here as she has the better resume and grappling. But Lee is bigger, stronger, and a better striker who can also grapple. She should win two of the three rounds and is our pick.
Pick: Andrea Lee +105
Parlay: Nzechukwu-Jung Over 2½ (-150) and Lee +105 at +241
Add: De Lima Stuns Rothwell
Ben Rothwell was at one point, a contender in the division. But that was ages ago and the big man has not beaten a top10-caliber fighter outside of Chris Barnett without a training camp. De Lima, not a spring chicken himself, is still getting better.
De Lima (18-7-1) only loses via submission, literally. And Rothwell (39-13-0) may have a few subs on his resume but he is not the type to hunt for it. Rothwell averages 0.68 takedowns per 15 minutes at 35%. Maybe he hurts de Lima and chokes him. But it’s more likely the fresher and faster De Lima will hurt him and finish him. Add this underdog to the parlay.
Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima +125
Parlay: Nzechukwu-Jung Over 2½ (-150), Lee +105, de Lima +125 at +668
Add: Jojua Upsets Casey
We can take this parlay to new heights by taking the big dog shot on Liliana Jojua over Cortney Casey. At +180, Jojua (8-4-0) is the liveliest of underdogs as she has a clear path to victory: her wrestling. Granted, Jojua has questionable endurance but Casey (9-9-0) has the worst takedown defense in the promotion.
If Jojua does not screw around and goes straight for takedowns, she can sit on Casey and beat her by controlling her. Even when she starts to tire, Casey will not win if she’s spending the bulk of her time laying at the bottom or defending takedowns. Adding this pushes the parlay to 20-1 and may just be the best UFC bet.
Pick: Lilian Jojua +180