UFC Fight Night Predictions: Best Bets for Cannonier vs Rodrigues on February 15

With Nassourdine Imavov securing a victory over Israel Adesanya at 185 pounds, the storyline of the middleweight division continues on Saturday with a triple threat of bouts scheduled, including former title contender and familiar top-ranked brute Jared Cannonier and the Brazilian finishing machine, Gregory Rodrigues.

Some suggest the middleweight division is stale, but what do they know because Rodrigues, with 14 of his 16 pro career wins coming by knockout or submission, is guaranteed to bring the violence to “The Killa Gorilla,” whose moniker says it all!

As usual, I’m back to break down the main event festivities, and alongside the best UFC betting odds, I will provide you with my fight analysis and best bets for the UFC Fight Night main event.

Middleweight action at the APEX 👊

Don’t miss Jared Cannonier vs @Gregory_MMA this Saturday!

[ #UFCVegas102 | Live on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/fPuZ0kzGl8

— UFC (@ufc) February 10, 2025

UFC Fight Night How To Watch

• Date & Time: Saturday, Feb. 15 – 04:00 p.m. ET
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
• How to Watch: UFC Fight
• Main Event Bout: Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues
• Co-Main Event Bout: Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal

Jared ‘The Killa Gorilla’ Cannonier

For the last decade, Jared Cannonier has been a main fixture amongst 185-pound competitors, and while his name value holds up, his results, on paper and online bets, aren’t so pretty. He’s lost three of his previous five UFC appearances, and as he’ll be 41 years old come Saturday night, it’s unlikely that he’ll be making another title run before retirement.

Now, it must be highlighted that despite returning from a two-fight losing streak and three losses from his last five, those defeats involved Caio Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov, two rapidly rising prospects, and the former champion, Israel Adesanya. There is zero shame in losing to these men!

So, it’s not like Cannonier is out here losing to bums. That said, he’s clearly been relegated to gatekeeper status, and with another rising contender that holds reminiscent trajectories of Imavov and Borralho, should we assume that his name will be another stepping stone this weekend?

Jared Cannonier doesn’t plan to be fodder for another surging middleweight in Gregory Rodrigues at #UFCVegas102.

“Hopefully the third time’s the motherf*cking charm.”

(via @MikeBohn) pic.twitter.com/N7OYOmxlDB

— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) February 11, 2025

Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues

With nine UFC appearances in the bag since vacating his LFA middleweight title to join the promotion in 2021, Brazil’s Gregory Rodrigues has been an absolute force in the octagon, win or lose.

He’s won seven of those nine bouts and holds a 71% knockout rate, per Rodrigues vs Cannonier stats. He’s now unbeaten since January 2023, behind a three-fight win streak, and elite competition awaits the eight-time jiu-jitsu world champion.

Speaking of jiu-jitsu, what’s most fascinating about Robocop’s octagon battles is that we see him engage in striking battles more often than not. With his knockout power, it’s understandable, but considering his black belt level in BJJ and wrestling knowledge gained from an Olympic trainer, it’s quite surprising that he isn’t rag-dolling and tapping his opponents, especially those focused on offensive kickboxing.

Jiu-jitsu or not, Rodrigues has remained consistent throughout his career for MMA predictions. Whether it’s been under the UFC banner or not, just five of his 21 pro career MMA fights have gone the distance, and with 14 stoppage wins to his name, he’s undeniably one of the fiercest finishers in the 185-pound weight class.

Bet on Gregory to beat Jared Cannonier (-225)

Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues Fight week #UFCVegas102 pic.twitter.com/pyIr7Yk9jo

— Haduucken (@Haduuuucken) February 11, 2025

Cannonier vs. Rodrigues: Tale of The Tape

Inside the Octagon: Skillset Breakdown

Is the Gorilla ready to be put down?

Jared Cannonier approaches his UFC bouts with vicious intent. He wants to knock his opponents out with heavy strikes, and in this stylistic matchup, he’s undoubtedly the more proven of the two. As a former title contender, he holds wins over former champ Sean Strickland, credible wrestler Derek Brunson, and Marvin Vettori, and in each of those contests, he’s utilized his offensive striking to gain the upper hand.

However, despite being known as a heavy hitter, he hasn’t flat-lined a foe since 2022, per UFC betting trends. With only one knockout win in five years and eight appearances, The Killa Gorilla has looked more like the timid rabbit regarding knockout and finishing potential.

It should be stated that Cannonier also has an overlooked wrestling game. He’s no stranger to beating his opponents with ground and pound from top position, but for the most part, he likes his fights standing. Despite a lack of technical ability, his punching power and credible cardio make him a problem in this area.

Tha Killa Gorilla has absolutely devastating KO power 👊

Jared Cannonier is back in the Octagon this Saturday at #UFCVegas102! pic.twitter.com/ZFjJOWRt5W

— UFC (@ufc) February 10, 2025

Robocop Rodrigues

As previously highlighted, Gregory Rodrigues is an eight-time world champion in the jiu-jitsu world, but you’d struggle to know this by watching his UFC fights. Much like his weekend opponent, the Brazilian has bombs in his fists, and he likes to use them!

Robocop is a heavy-handed brawler, and once he smells blood, it’s usually over. Should Cannonier display one hint of being hurt this Saturday, expect to see the Brazilian transform into a man possessed as he hunts the finish.

Now, Robocop’s problem is his lack of footwork and technical striking ability. Yes, he can easily drop and knock out opponents, but he doesn’t have the fastest strikes or reactions and can sometimes be flat-footed during standing situations.

Five UFC finishes and he’s hungry for more 😮‍💨@Gregory_MMA is back Saturday in the #UFCVegas102 main event! pic.twitter.com/m2WYsN7r96

— UFC (@ufc) February 11, 2025

Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Betting Trends

• Cannonier has lost 3 of his previous 5 UFC bouts
• Rodrigues has won 3 consecutive UFC bouts
• Rodrigues has won by KO in 5 of his 7 UFC appearances

Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Betting Perspective

I know the competition levels haven’t been easy, but at age 41, you have to look at Cannonier’s recent performances and ask: What have you done lately?

Well, watching him versus Borralho, who’s known as a grappler, he looked slower than ever on route to losing a striking battle, which was concerning. The Imavov bout was a similar story, where The Killa Gorilla just looked lethargic in striking exchanges until he couldn’t handle any more punishment and was finished in the fourth.

While Rodrigues might not have the hype of Borralho or Imavov, he is arguably the most dangerous of the three. Not only does he have the power to end the fight standing, but he also owns the jiu-jitsu skills capable of wrapping up a neck.

Do I like the current -220 odds on Rodrigues? Not really, but with an age, grappling and potential durability edge, having fought in significantly fewer wars than Cannonier, I’m taking the Brazilian to win in my UFC pick as I believe he has more tools to finish the fight in a contest that’s highly likely to end inside the distance.

If the -220 moneyline doesn’t suit you, pay the -265 juice on this fight to end inside the distance.

My Best Bet: Rodrigues Moneyline -225

My Best Bet 2: Fight Goes the Distance/No -265

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