The last UFC for 2021 kicks off Saturday and packed, eight-fight prelims will set the table for a banger of a main card. The UFC betting odds indicate plenty of big favorites, which could lead to plenty of upsets as we give the skinny on each of them.
- Date: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, United States
- Watch on: ESPN+
UFC Fight Night Prelim Picks
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Gerald Meerschaert
- Moneyline: Dustin Stoltzfus +185, Gerald Meerschaert -235
- Round Totals: Over 1½ (175), Under 1½ (+145)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Middleweight (185 lbs) (3 Rounds)
It’s usually reckless to bet Gerald Meerschaert at this price, but not against Dustin Stoltzfus. Meerschaert (33-14-0) should be able to wrestle down Stoltzfus (13-3-0) just like Rodolfo Vieira and Kyle Daukaus did. He would make a great piece for a parlay.
Pick: Gerald Meerschaert -235
Raoni Barcelos vs Victor Henry
- Moneyline: Raoni Barcelos -375, Victory Henry +275
- Round Totals: Over 2½ (-110), Under 2½ (-110)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Bantamweight (135 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Raoni Barcelos is the best unranked fighter in the division and he gets Victor Henry, who arguably was the best fighter not in the division. If this was not such a short notice fight for Henry (21-5-0), he would have been worth an underdog bet online. As for Barcelos (16-2-0), he should win. But the play here is to bet the over.
Pick: Under 2½ (-120)
Justin Tafa vs Harry Hunsucker
- Moneyline: Harry Hunsucker +245, Justin Tafa -325
- Round Totals: Over 1½ (+155), Under 1½ (-190)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Heavyweight (265 lbs) (3 Rounds)
The main event is not the only big-boy fight that could feature a thunderous knockout here. The UFC knows exactly what it’s doing here: give the hard-hitting Justin Tafa Harry Hunsucker to KO and get the fans fired. No disrespect to Hunsucker (7-4-0), but he’s on his way out of the UFC. But instead of laying the juice on Tafa (4-3-0), bet the under.
Watching @Justin_Tafa stand and bang never, ever gets boring! 🤯🤯🤯
📺📱 Tafa is back this weekend at #UFCVegas45 pic.twitter.com/r7vokIJuFw
— UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) December 15, 2021
Pick: Under 1½ (-190)
Sijara Eubanks vs Melissa Gatto
- Moneyline: Sijara Eubanks -165, Melissa Gatto +135
- Round Totals: Over 2½ (-200), Under 2½ (+160)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Women’s Flyweight (125 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Sijara Eubanks, once upon a time, had plenty of potential. But Eubanks (7-6-0) is getting old and has a rough time cutting weight. This is problematic over the course of 15 minutes against Melissa Gatto. The unbeaten Gatto (7-0-2) should be able to edge this one.
Pick: Melissa Gatto +135
Charles Jourdain vs Andre Ewell
- Moneyline: Andre Ewell +160, Charles Jourdain -200
- Round Totals: Over 2½ (-120), Under 2½ (-110)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Featherweight (145 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Charles “Air” Jourdain is an exciting but flawed prospect getting a tailormade matchup against Andre Ewell. Jourdain (11-4-1) is the type of fighter you break by pressuring and Ewell (17-8-0) just isn’t that type of fighter. He’s got a sizable reach advantage, which will let Jourdain stay at range and light him up.
Pick: Charles Jourdain -200
Raquel Pennington vs Macy Chiasson
- Moneyline: Macy Chiasson +150, Raquel Pennington -180
- Round Totals: Over 2½ (-280), Under 2½ (+210)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Women’s Featherweight (145 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Under most circumstances, we would take Raquel Pennington to win here as she has a wrestling advantage and Macy Chiasson is coming in on short notice. But Pennington (12-8-0) will be significantly smaller than the natural featherweight. “Rocky” could edge this one but from online sports betting perspective, it’s Chiasson (7-1-0) or pass.
Pick: Macy Chiasson +150
Don’Tale Mayes vs Josh Parisian
- Moneyline: Josh Parisian +160, Don’Tale Mayes -200
- Round Totals: Over 2½ (-110), Under 2½ (-110)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Heavyweight (265 lbs) (3 Rounds)
A battle between low-level heavyweights is usually unpredictable and that’s why the lean here is on the underdog, Josh Parisian. Don’Tale Mayes should be able to keep him on the outside and jab away at him. But Mayes (8-4-0) has poor endurance and Parisian (14-4-0) can take over late.
Pick: Josh Parisian +160
Jordan Leavitt vs Matt Sayles
- Moneyline: Matt Sayles -105, Jordan Leavitt -125
- Round Totals: Over 2½ (+110), Under 2½ (-140)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Lightweight (155 lbs) (3 Rounds)
You won’t have any UFC best bets here. This fight is one to stay away from though with a gun to our heads, we’d pick Jordan Leavitt. Leavitt (8-1-0) is, at least, a much better grappler and can use that to neutralize Matt Sayles (8-3-0), who is too much of a generalist to threaten anywhere.
