While UFC 266 proved to be a party for the favorites, this next UFC Fight Night could be a real chaotic affair. This means you best guard against upsets and unforeseen outcomes. That’s a problem if you’re looking to parlay favorites or bet the heavy chalk but great if you’re looking to snipe some plus-money via underdogs or props.
We look at four of the best UFC bets that could break the bank in different categories.
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 2, 4 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, United States
- Watch on: ESPN+
Props: Betting Our Own Performance Bonuses
Round of the Night: Johnny Walker Over Thiago Santos
Alright, so we went the other way and picked Thiago Santos (21-9-0) in our breakdown. But the value on the underdog, Johnny Walker (18-5-0) ending this fight in round 1 at +450 is too good to ignore. This is likely Walker’s most realistic path to success seeing as all of his UFC fights have been either a first-round finish or a loss.
Walker is an unpredictable and creative striker. He can throw spinning fists or flying knees and he starts fast. Santos has lost a step and has never been the same fighter since his knee injury. If he does survive the first, he will likely be a solid live betting play. But if you’re looking for the best bang for your buck, Walker via a round 1 finish is gold.
Bet: J Walker To Win In Round 1 +450
Finish of the Night: Krzysztof Jotko Over Misha Cirkunov
Misha Cirkunov (15-6-0) is cutting to 185 for the first time and he looks good doing it. But we doubt this would improve the fatal flaws he’s displayed in his time at 205: an inability to take a punch and a poor gas tank. Cutting even more weight can exacerbate these problems so even if he looks good, color us skeptical.
— Amy Kaplan (@PhotoAmy33) October 1, 2021
Jotko (22-5-0) is not exactly a power puncher and he hasn’t finished anyone in five years. But Cirkunov has also never gone to a decision, win or lose, in the UFC. This Cirkunov in one round or bust is similar to the fight above. But bet online with Jotko to get this done inside the distance.
Bet: K Jotko To Win By KO, TKO, DQ or Submission +160
Macy Chiasson over Aspen Ladd (FIGHT CANCELED)
Update: Aspen Ladd was shaky at the weigh-in Friday and the prudent decision was made to call off the fight.
Spoiler of the Night: Alejandro Perez vs Johnny Eduardo
Speaking of long layoffs, 41-year-old Johnny Eduardo (28-12-0) returns to the octagon after three years away. That’s why the UFC betting lines are steep on Alejandro Perez (21-8-1) to win and to finish the Brazilian (+130). Perez should win, but there is a solid chance he does it by decision
UFC bantamweight fights tend to end in a finish around 51% of the time per Fight Matrix. That translates to betting odds at -105. At +120, we’re getting a bit more value with Perez and Eduardo fighting to the scorecards.