If you’re looking for some easy chalk bets on Saturday, look elsewhere. The UFC Fight Night in Austin, Texas, is an underdog bettors’ stage. Given the betting odds, the best UFC picks and parlays should consist of underdogs from the main card down to the prelims. Here, we’ll snipe some props that are not as unlikely to happen as their long lines indicate.
Green to Submit Turner at Juicy Odds
It’s not every day that we can say that a UFC line of 16-1 is a must-bet. This is not just a “Hail Mary” as Green has better than a 6% chance of submitting Jalin Turner in their co-main event fight. For one, Green shouldn’t be this wide of an underdog. He’s coming off an upset win in a main event and has much more experience than his opponent.
Turner is coming in on late notice and just missed weight. That tells us he did not have enough time to train or cut weight. This is the guy you’re supposed to lay chalk on? Green is a 10-year UFC veteran and has shared the octagon against champions and legends. Turner has not beaten a top-10 opponent.
— UFC (@ufc) July 30, 2023
Furthermore, Dan Hooker, a striker, nearly submitted Turner. Green is a much more versed Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu player than Hooker. He tapped Tony Ferguson and has nine career submissions. Bet online on Green to sub Turner.
UFC Pick: Bobby Green By Submission (+1600)
Guida Exposes Silva
Here is another shady line: Joaquim Silva is widely favored over Clay Guida. We get it: Guida is old. He’s 41 years old and has more UFC fights (35) than Silva’s age (34). But check his stats. Guida is 3-3 in his last six fights and has wins over Leonardo Santos and Michael Johnson, two former top-15 fighters. He is not entirely washed up.
As for Silva, there is no sane reason why he should be this short of a favorite. He’s been knocked out in three of his last four fights. His only win in this span came against Jesse Ronson, who went 0-5 in the UFC. While he’s the younger and more skilled fighter here, we can’t trust him.
Instead, bet on Guida to find a way to get past him. His most likely path to victory is via a decision as 61% of his UFC victories have come in that manner. But Silva’s glass chin could get exposed. Guida only has two career UFC knockouts. But you never know. A KO or decision win for Guda could be the best UFC bet on Dec. 2.
Stoltzfus Outlasts Soriano
Like Turner and Silva, Punahelo Soriano is another fighter who is too juiced on the betting lines. How on Earth is he this heavily favored? Sure, Dustin Stoltzfus is on the verge of getting cut. He’s 1-4 in the UFC and was finished three times. But “Puna” is not exactly a world-beater: He’s 1-3 in his last four fights. Both are also coming off KO losses.
The difference here is that Stoltzfus is a moderate underdog in the sportsbook. While he could get smashed in the first round, it becomes a near 50-50 fight after. Soriano is a fast starter but will fade down the stretch. That is Stoltzfus’ chance to outwork him and possibly even secure a late submission when Soriano is spent. It’s worth a shot.
UFC Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus in Round 3 (+2500)
UFC Fight Night Information
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 2, 6 p.m. ET
- Venue: Moody Center, Austin, TX
- UFC Fight Night Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
Questions Of The Day
What is the best UFC Fight Night Parlay bet for this weekend?
Bettors can bet and parlay any combination of underdogs on the main card for a massive payout on the UFC odds.
What are the best value bets for the UFC Fight Night this week?
Plenty of underdogs, including the main card fights, have great value for betting for the UFC Fight Night this Saturday.