UFC Fight Night Tampa Prediction: Over/Under Best Bet for Buckley vs Covington on December 14

One more weekend of octagon action before Dana White and Co. pack up for the Holidays. While the Christmas spirit is cool and all, we’re going to miss our weekly dose of adrenaline-fuelled MMA. On the positive side, this weekend’s main event in Tampa is an absolute slobber-knocker and the perfect way to end the year in style.

Colby Covington, the man everyone loves to hate, steps up to compete versus a serious rising contender in the welterweight division in Joaquin Buckley. Per usual, I’m back to dissect the main event festivities, provide you with my best UFC Fight Night picks, and hopefully fill your stocking with cold, hard cash!

One more for the people in 2024: “It’s time!!!!!”

Fiiiiiiight weeeeek!

Covington vs Buckley is LIVE and FREE SATURDAY on ESPN2! #UFCTampa pic.twitter.com/tQiYYpTSKb

— danawhite (@danawhite) December 9, 2024

UFC Fight Night Tampa Event Information

• Date and Time: Saturday, December. 14, 2024 – 07:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
• Main Event Bout: Joaquin Buckley vs Colby Covington
• Co-Main Event Bout: Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo
• Moneyline Probability: Buckley – 7% (-280) Covington – 3% (+220)

Buckley vs Covington Betting Preview

Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington: Rising from the Ashes

Say what you will about the Maga-hat-wearing, brash, and cocky attitude of ‘Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington, but no matter how high your disdain might be for the Oregon native, one cannot simply begin jading reality to fit a narrative… He’s that damn good, and we must respect it, as the former interim champ has been competing versus the welterweight elite for the best part of eight years.

Covington’s lack of in-octagon activity – 16 fights in 10 years – and recent losses – 3 defeats in the last 5 fights – might give the illusion that he’s “washed” on paper, but look at the level of competition he’s been facing (Leon Edwards, Jorge Masvidal, Kamaru Usman), and then watch those fights to realize he hasn’t exactly been dominated outside of the Usman knockout in their first meeting.

The pace he puts on is never easy to deal with 😮‍💨@ColbyCovMMAreturns Saturday in the#UFCTampamain event!pic.twitter.com/6gNQQvkIfD

— UFC (@ufc)December 9, 2024

Saturday’s clash with Buckley does present an intriguing moment in Colby’s career, however. It’ll be the first fighter he’s fought that’s younger than him since 2016, and the first fighter who isn’t ranked in the top-five at 170lbs since 2017. Should UFC betting fans expect him to rise from the ashes and still bring the “chaos”? Or is it time to pass the torch?

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Joaquin ‘New Mansa’ Buckley: Snatching the Torch

St. Louis, Missouri, isn’t just ice cream cones. Josephine Baker, the Show-Me State, has produced a serious up-and-coming UFC contender in recent years, and it all began with the spinning back kick knockout heard around the world in 2020.

Joaquin ‘New Mansa’ Buckley is a freak athlete, and as we watched him elevate in the air, spin his body 360 degrees, land a kick to the skull of Impa Kasanganay, and knock him out cold, we knew the division had a problem on its hands.

Despite suffering a handful of setbacks since (10-4 UFC record), fortunately, New Mansa’s spin-kick KO hasn’t been the lone highlight of his career. A 70% KO/TKO rate, including a five-fight win streak and recent knockout of Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson, has elevated him to the top of the division, where he’ll be looking to snatch the torch from another veteran this weekend in Tampa, in what’s arguably the biggest fight of his professional MMA career!

The Octagon-side angle might be the best one yet 😳 #UFCFightIsland5 pic.twitter.com/WbPJzbvDZH

— UFC (@ufc) October 11, 2020

Buckley vs Covington: The Tale of The Tape

Make sure to check the latest UFC news before placing your bets.

Inside the Octagon: Buckley vs Covington Skillset Breakdown

Going the Distance

If there are two aspects of Colby Covington’s skill set that he can rely on, they are wrestling and cardio. Sadly, we’ve only seen it on four occasions over the last four years, and at 36, how much longer can we rely on his durability to see him through in five-round battles?

An impressive win over Tyron Woodley displayed his ability to strike and wrestle when need be, and he completely drowned Masvidal in the wrestling department. However, with a strong and young opponent with a wrestling background standing in front of him, can he overcome the incoming kill shots to take this war down the stretch?

I say this because that’s Colby’s best path to victory. He needs to use his durability and cardio while capitalizing on New Mansa’s gas tank, which hasn’t looked great beyond round two. The Edwards bout doesn’t give much hope, but he was injured during the fight, and perhaps the pressure-based wrestler can be the kryptonite to Buckley’s overwhelming power.

Colby Covington says he’s going to “break” and “drown” Joaquin Buckley 😳

“He’s never been in a 5 round fight with an elite fighter like me… Saturday night I’m gonna drown this guy.”

🎥 @ufc #UFC #MMA #UFCTampapic.twitter.com/AEus9Gs3Zf

— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) December 11, 2024

Welterweight is Home

Since Buckley shifted to the welterweight division, he’s been on a roll. Now, with five straight wins, what have we seen? Well, a much calmer striker in the cage than what we used to see, Buckley hasn’t been afraid to use his jab and wait for the right moment to pounce on opponents. His overall ground abilities have risen, and his athleticism delivers a level of speed that most haven’t been able to handle.

Fading Buckley on his current high doesn’t give me confidence, especially when combined with Colby’s lack of activity and his older age. We have one fighter who’s been to the top versus a very hungry St. Louis representative. While Colby’s experience and skill might be a notch above, it isn’t easy to back him at the sportsbook when we literally have zero evidence of how he fares versus younger, faster, and more athletic opponents.

Wheels up to Tampa 🛫

Our last fight card of the year is on the way!

[ B2YB: @StakeUSA | #UFCTampa ] pic.twitter.com/jJRGcMNVwe

— UFC (@ufc) December 9, 2024

Buckley vs Covington Betting Trends

• Buckley is riding a five-fight win streak
• Covington has lost 3 of his previous 5 UFC bouts
• Covington has fought just 4 times in four years
• Buckley has fought 14 times in four years
• Buckley has won 7 of his 10 UFC bouts by KO/TKO

Buckley vs Covington Prediction: Bet This Fight Under 4.5 Rounds

Do I like the juice we’re seeing from UFC odds on Buckley? Not particularly. However, based on the aforementioned reasons, I believe he’s on the side. That said, I have a feeling this fight isn’t going to reach the fifth round, no matter who walks out victorious.

The under 4½ rounds is sitting at a great price, and with Buckley’s power, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end this fight early. In contrast, Colby has the five-round cardio. At the same time, Buckley has struggled in three rounds before, so if he does reach the championship rounds, watching the underdog finish a fight for once wouldn’t shock the system.

Bet This Pick: Under 4 ½ Rounds (+120)

Question of the Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.