Let’s be honest here: We, as humans, are biased towards attractiveness. Be it an attractive piece of food or an attractive co-worker, we tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. It’s proven. The same bias extends to how the betting public views UFC fighters. We break down this Saturday’s UFC betting odds and go against these hypnotized folk to profit — just like we cashed big last week.
- Date: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex, Enterprise, Nevada
- Watch on: ESPN+
UFC Fight Night Prelim Picks
Khama Worthy vs Jai Herbert
Moneyline: Jai Herbert -180, Khama Worthy +150
Total: Over 1½ (-125), Under 1½ (-105)
Weight Class (Rounds): Lightweight (155 lbs) (3 Rounds)
As a precursor to our “fade the hot fighter” theme, we have a spectacular setup between two bangers. Khama Worthy (16-8-0) duels Jai Herbert (10-3-0) in what should end with one man out cold. Neither fighter has seen a decision in their last four bouts and both have knockout power.
We lean on Herbert starching Worthy, who has seen himself get brutally finished in his last two bouts. But Herbert himself is not bulletproof and has taken two ugly losses in the promotion himself. The best UFC bet here is for the fight to not go to a decision or for this one to end early.
Pick: Under 1½ Rounds (-105)
Tabatha Ricci vs Maria Oliveira
Moneyline: Maria Oliveira +180, Tabatha Ricci -230
Total: Over 2½ (-165), Under 2½ (+135)
Weight Class (Rounds): Flyweight (125 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Bet online for underdog Maria Oliveira (12-4-0) to upset Tabatha Ricci (5-1-0). Oliveira is significantly larger than Ricci, who is built more like a 105-pound fighter if the division existed in the UFC. This means Oliveira will bring a five-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage.
The height advantage can work against Oliveira as Ricci can trip her up and submit her on the mat. But as the smaller fighter, Ricci will have a hard time keeping Oliveira on the mat. And Ricci is not even proven in her MMA career. Her best win is against a 2-3-0 fighter. But she’s got looks so she’s in the UFC.
Pick: Maria Oliveira +180
Livinha Souza vs Randa Markos
Moneyline: Randa Markos -105, Livinha Souza -125
Total: Over 2½ (-280), Under 2½ (+210)
Weight Class (Rounds): Strawweight (115 lbs) (3 Rounds)
This is another prime example of the online gambling scene being skewed because of attractiveness. Riddle me this: Which fighter has: a) the better record and is a former Invicta champion; and b) a losing record and is on a four-fight losing skid but is easy on the eyes?
The former is Livinha Souza (14-3-0), who should be a larger favorite here against Randa Markos (10-11-1). Souza has serious grappling credentials and is strong for the division. Markos is a feisty competitor but not near as skilled as Souza. Take Souza while her line is this good.
Pick: Livinha Souza -125
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Joselyne Edwards
Moneyline: Joselyne Edwards +115, Jessica-Rose Clark -145
Total: Over 2½ (-350), Under 2½ (+250)
Weight Class (Rounds): Bantamweight (135 lbs) (3 Rounds)
This scrap should be a fun one as we can expect the ever-popular Jessica-Rose Clark (10-6-0) to throw down against Joselyne Edwards (10-3-0). If we do the “MMA Math” (which never works), Rose-Clark should beat Edwards. She destroyed Sarah Alpar, who beat Edwards.
— Jessy Jess (@missjessyjess) October 19, 2021
Edwards had big a size advantage over Alpar and couldn’t capitalize on it. But that fight was many years ago and Alpar had to use her grappling to barely beat Edwards. Rose-Clark can try to outgrapple Edwards, but she won’t.