Paulo Costa has a lot to prove despite his success in the Octagon Saturday as the UFC returns to the Apex for a UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas. Costa will be facing the heated Marvin Vettori as the headliner following a bizarre turn of events on fight week with Costa having issues making the initially agreed 185 pound weight limit.
You’ll Hate Costa’s Smile More after the Fight
Costa’s Weight is Confusing
UFC odds had Costa open as the slight favorite at -110 prior to the news of him showing up on fight week at 211 pounds, 25 pounds over the middleweight limit. History shows that fighters that come in overweight have an advantage over the fighter who did his or her part to make weight, which is why a purse-deduction is common in situations like these.
Fighters who don’t make weight usually experience a more straight-foward consequence. Usually a manager will let the promotion know that his fighter will not make weight, introduce a new weight to fight at, and a typical 20-30% purse deduction. The fight goes on.
This case was a lot different. Not only was Costa significantly overweight, he couldn’t make the newly suggested catchweight of 195 pounds by his team. The two fighters eventually agreed to a bout at 205 pounds. Costa is built like an absolute warrior so dealing with his size when he makes weight is difficult enough for many middleweights.
This case is different because Costa’s weight is too significant, raising questions of his dedication during training camp, and part of the reason why his line swung to being the underdog at +160 when you bet online.
Pull the Trigger on Costa
Costa is a guy that can spring up to a hefty 213 pounds on fight day even if he made 185 during weigh-ins. His body is probably significantly more comfortable at light heavyweight and the UFC banning him from the middleweight division is an indicator of that.
Vettori is a guy that can really do damage against the cage and on the ground. The issue with Vettori is that he’s shown that he can struggle taking down smaller opponents and small is something Costa is not. He’s also a fighter that can allow emotions to get the best of him, something Costa is not.
Costa’s Likability Is Making Public Pick Against Him
Nick Diaz had a similar situation with his fight where he couldn’t make 170 pounds. Diaz was not nearly as persecuted as Costa. Beloved by his fans, it was easier for Diaz and his camp to be more transparent.
Costa is coming off of a long layoff, but not a six-year layoff like Diaz. His body is still more conditioned to a cage and he’s probably in way better shape than Diaz going into his fight with Robbie Lawler.
Don’t let the public hate towards Costa fool you at the sportsbook. He’s prepared for this fight and will take the win over the emotional Vettori.