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UFC Mexico City: The Perfect UFC Prop Bets

Another week of octagon goodness is just around the corner, and I’ve dove into the thirteen scheduled bouts for UFC Mexico City to unravel the most noteworthy UFC props that hold the MMA odds.

The Vegas odds for UFC Fight Night in Mexico are live; my tiresome tape study is complete, so let’s not waste any more time and jump into my perfect proposition bets for this weekend.

UFC Mexico City: The Perfect UFC Prop Bets
UFC Mexico City: The Perfect UFC Prop Bets


UFC Mexico City Information

  1. Date & Time: Saturday, February. 24, 2024 – 07:00 p.m. ET
  2. Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City
  3. UFC Mexico City Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
  4. Main Event Bout: Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval
  5. Co-Main Event Bout: Yair Rodriguez vs Brian Ortega
  6. No.1 of Scheduled Fights: 13
  7. Biggest UFC Mexico Betting Favorite: Muhammad Naimov (-600)
  8. Biggest UFC Mexico Underdog: Erik Silva (+400)


Chairez vs Lacerda Prop Betting Preview

One of three rematches at UFC Mexico City involves the home nation favorite, Edgar Chairez (10-5-0), and Brazil’s Daniel Larcerda (11-5-0).

The first meeting between these rugged fighters delivered exactly what was predicted by many MMA analysts: another stoppage defeat for Lacerda, who can’t seem to manage his cardio beyond the first five minutes of a fight.

He’s explosive, dangerous, and I’d go as far as saying ‘talented,’ but unfortunately, he was submitted by Chairez in the last fight (Overturned NC), which resulted in five straight losses in the UFC, all of which arrived via KO/TKO or submission.


UFC Mexico City Best Prop Bet 1: Chairez by KO/TKO (+140)

Sure, the UFC betting odds are slightly juiced in favor of Chairez, but once you realize how awful Lacerda’s ability to withstand punishment beyond the first five minutes has been thus far, you’ll understand why.

Last time, it was a submission that ended it all, but ground and pound alongside a very questionable chin point me toward the KO/TKO prop this time out.

Lacerda entered the UFC as a bright prospect boasting an 11-1 record, but it’s become clear he isn’t ready for a UFC level of opposition, and once Chairez is welcomed to the cage via a roaring Mexico crowd, I expect him to pummel the Brazilian early with another round one stoppage to emulate their initial meeting.



  1. Lacerda has lost all of his UFC bouts via KO/TKO or submission
  2. Chairez defeated Lacerda inside the distance in their initial meeting (Overturned)
  3. Chairez has won all 10 of his pro-MMA bouts inside the distance



Quinonez vs Barcelos Prop Betting Preview

Raoni Barcelos (17-5) was previously on the verge of Bantamweight title contention after winning five straight bouts, which included Chris Gutierrez by submission and Said Nurmagomedov by decision. Unfortunately, once he reached the division’s upper echelon, father time seemed to kick in as the 36-year-old now has a record of 1-4 in his last five, with his most recent loss being against Kyler Phillips in August 2023.

Despite the downtrend, I still don’t think he’s finished, and he’s got one more run in him – particularly versus the lower-ranked fighters at bantamweight. It’s OK to lose against powerhouses like Umar Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips, and despite his dwindling boxing speed, he still poses a danger on the ground and power in those hands. He’s still a worthy UFC betting pick this weekend.


UFC Mexico City Best Prop Bet 2: Barcelos by KO/TKO or Submission (+350)

Quinonez (18-4) looks like a great match on paper, but his opposition level is incomparable to Barcelos’s. Watching him get completely outworked by Kyung Ho Kang was telling, and now, he’s matched with what’s arguably a much more challenging opponent.

On the mat, Quinonez was utterly outclassed by Kang. Whatever happens Saturday, Quinonez will wind up on his back because even if his sprawl holds, the Brazilian has the capabilities in his right hand to knock him out or down.

The MMA betting lines on Barcelos to win by knockout or submission at +150 are simply too tempting. I understand the worries around his decline, but with a huge drop in the level of competition, the skill disbalance will heavily favor him.



  1. Barcelos is undefeated versus fighters ranked outside of the bantamweight top-20
  2. Barcelos has collected 8 knockout and 2 submission wins during his pro MMA career
  3. All four of Quinonez’s career defeats came by KO/TKO or submission



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Our Favorite UFC Mexico City Proposition Wagers

  1. Edgar Chairez by KO/TKO (+140)
  1. Raoni Barcelos by KO/TKO or Submission (+350)


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