As outlined in our prelim piece, upsets will be plentiful Saturday. As the UFC finally makes its way to Elmont, we’re fishing for plenty of lucrative UFC odds courtesy of the props section. Whether it’s an unlikely finish or a big upset, it’s worth casting a net over these five fights.
- Date: Saturday, July 16, 11 a.m. ET
- Venue: UBS Arena, Long Island
- Livestream: UFC Fight Pass
UFC on ABC 3 Props
Soriano Smashes Lungiambula
Punahele Soriano (8-2-0) is a crowd-pleaser: this Hawaiian fights like he’s in a bar brawl. Both of his wins in the UFC have come via a knockout and he’s a good bet to dust Dalcha Lungiambula (11-4-0). The Congolese fighter is built like a superhero but that’s about it. Soriano will light him up. Bet online on a 2nd round KO for “Puna”.
Pick: Soriano In Round 2 by KO, TKO or DQ +750
Schnell Takes Down Su Mudaerji
Even as flyweights, there is a high chance of this fight being finished early. That could be the best UFC bet. In most cases, Su Mudaerji (16-4-0) will knock Matt Schnell (15-7-0) out cold. The American has a frail chin and one clean shot from the “Tibetan Eagle” could do it.
But at 8-1, we like to roll the dice on Schnell being able to exploit Mudaerji’s weakness: grappling. All four of his losses have come via submission and it only happens that Schnell is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu whiz.
Pick: Schnell by Submission +800
The Kung Fu Master Educates The Leech
Muslim Salikhov (18-2-0) is on a roll and a win over Li Jingliang (18-7-0) sets him up with a ranked opponent. We’re not so fond of his moneyline odds on the sportsbook but there is a sharp prop for him: to win by submission. Salikhov is aptly nicknamed the “King of Kung Fu” and he’s as precise as you can get even if he is a low-volume striker.
We expect Salikhov to land clean on Jingliang’s big head and finish him on the ground via submission. He only has two career submission wins but Salikhov could just find a hurt Jingliang’s neck and do him in.
Pick: Salikhov by Submission +1200
That right hand of Muslim Salikhov landed 𝑪𝑳𝑬𝑨𝑵 🧼
— UFC (@ufc) July 11, 2022
Fading Lemos (Again) With Waterson
We were one decision away from successfully fading Amanda Lemos (11-2-1) against Angela Hill. We’re doubling down but with Michelle Waterson (18-9-0) this time. The “Karate Hottie” is an experienced veteran who has shared the Octagon with the division’s best and is a former champion herself.
Lemos has big power but only does well against flat-footed fighters. Waterson has good footwork and won’t be a sitting duck for Lemos. She can even mix it up with her wrestling. Even after a long hiatus, a straight bet on Waterson is a solid bet. For the extra cash, grab her decision prop.
Pick: Waterson To Win By Decision or Tech. Decision +400
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Ortega Hands Rodriguez First Sub Loss
Our main event pits two of the UFC’s most exciting fighters. Now we say “exciting” to also indicate that these guys can make their bettors sweat profusely. In Brian Ortega’s case, he is too hittable and is absorbing a whopping 6.7 significant strikes per minute. For Yair Rodriguez (14-3-0), it’s his lack of wrestling/grappling.
That’s why we’re siding entirely on Ortega (15-2-0) here. The American is one of the best BJJ players in the UFC and he’s got one of the deadliest chokes. Rodriguez got exposed on the ground by an over-the-hill Frankie Edgar. Ortega will get him down and submit him at one point. Book it.
Pick: Ortega By Submission +225