UFC on ESPN 38 Parlay
UFC on ESPN 38 is shaping up to be a fun and frenetic event with plenty of the promotion’s top prospects in action. With this much hype comes a lot of imbalance on the UFC betting lines. We’re here to exploit these overpriced lines by stacking plus-money bets that can be extremely lucrative if they hit.
- Date: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC APEX
- Watch on: ESPN, ESPN 2
Morozov-Paiva Under 2½ (+130)
We start off with the “anchor” to our parlay: A potential slugfest between Sergey Morozov and Raulian Paiva. These bantamweights are strikers who will do damage. In Morozov’s case, he is the better technical boxer but his chin is not the best. One clean shot from Paiva could stagger him. Paiva, on the other hand, blocks punches with his face.
Neither of these 135ers is going to make the top 15 but it doesn’t mean they can’t scrap. The online sports betting lines have this going over 2½, which is inaccurate given how much damage the two could do to each other. Someone will get knocked out before the 2:30 mark of the third. Bank on it.
Curtis-Vieira Over 1½ (+120)
On the other end of the spectrum are Chris Curtis and Rodolfo Vieira. Most bets online are hammering the “under” 1½ rounds given these two’s propensity to finish. If we go by these lines, it means Curtis either knocks Vieira out early or he gets subbed trying. That’s a possibility. But it’s also just as possible that this one goes beyond the halfway point of the fight.
“I’m always looking for the submission and for the Performance of the Night [bonus].”
— UFC News (@UFCNews) June 23, 2022
While Curtis does have tremendous power, he is still more of a welterweight than a middleweight. Vieira is also significantly bigger and could just bully Curtis with his size. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion will also outgrapple Curtis, preventing “The Action Man” from doing too many flying knees or spinning attacks. A finish will still materialize, but it will come much later than folks anticipate.
Parlay: Paiva-Morozov Under 2½ and Curtis-Vieira Over 1½ at +406
Add: Christos Giagos +200
An upset will happen on UFC on ESPN 38 and Christos Giagos will be one of the underdogs to get it done. The lightweight should not be a 2-1 underdog against Thiago Moises. While Moises does have the grappling edge, Giagos is better on their feet and is the better all-around fighter.
Moises’ wrestling isn’t even the best so there is a good chance Giagos keeps this fight standing where he outstrikes Moises for a victory. Bet online on Giagos and add him to this parlay to push the odds to 14-1.
Parlay: Paiva-Morozov Under 2½, Curtis-Vieira Over 1½ and Christos Giagos at +1418
Add: Mateusz Gamrot +220
Capping off this parlay is Mateusz Gamrot in the main event. While we did pick Arman Tsarukyan earlier, the widening line on Gamrot is too long to ignore. The Pole is being underestimated as he has fought in championship bouts and against UFC-caliber opponents. Tsarukyan is more of a polished fighter and his wrestling is better.
In a five-round fight, there will be plenty of tight rounds here. It could be that Tsarukyan wins three rounds, but not with how judging is these days. The best UFC bet here is for the fight to go over 4½ rounds. But for this parlay, take the dog shot on Gamrot.
Parlay: Paiva-Morozov Under 2½, Curtis-Vieira Over 1½, Christos Giagos and Mateusz Gamrot at +4758