UFC: To Finish or Not to Finish?

• Date: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET
• Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Watch on: ESPN+

UFC on ESPN+: Big Money Props

Vieira Earns Judges’ Nod Over Tate

At the risk of contradicting ourselves, we’re offering this prop because +250 to win by decision is the best value prop between both Miesha Tate and Ketlen Vieira. While Tate (19-7-0) is the likelier winner, this one will go to a decision (-150) and between Tate’s +185 and Vieira’s +250, the higher payout is more attractive.

Tate is one of the toughest fighters and unless you’re Amanda Nunes or Ronda Rousey, you’re not tapping her. Vieira (11-2-0) has been a decision machine in the UFC. She’s not submitting or knocking Tate out and if she gets the win, it’s because she squeezes it out by a decision.

Pick: Vieira to Win by Decision or Tec. Decision +250

Chiesa Takes Brady Down Via Decision

Again, this is another prop that goes against our initial pick. But if you’re not sold on Sean Brady and want to go with the underdog in Michael Chiesa, bet him to win by decision at almost three times the payout. Five of Chiesa’s (17-5-0) 11 UFC wins came via submission. But only one came in the welterweight division: over Carlos Condit, a man allergic to wrestling.

It’s likely that Chiesa uses his strong wrestling to grind out Brady (14-0-0), who is the significantly smaller fighter here. Brady will still have the advantages on their feet, but Chiesa has fought superior strikers and outlasted them. If we’re riding with the dog, this is the best UFC bet for him.

Pick: M Chiesa to Win by Decision or Tec. Decision +330

Grant Shocks Yanez Early

Adrian Yanez is pegged on the online sports betting lines as the largest favorite (-325) among the male fighters. That’s a bit steep. But he is a knockout artist fighting Davey Grant, who just got the crap kicked out of him five months ago. Yanez (14-3-0) is likely to just starch Grant like the -120 betting line indicates.

But what if Grant (13-5-0) flips the tables on him? He is called “Dangerous” for a reason, having one-punch knocked out two fighters prior to getting whooped by Marlon Vera. Yanez is not bulletproof. In fact, he’s quite hittable, absorbing 4.80 significant strikes a minute including 57 in one round against Randy Costa. Grant may be “shot” but a shot fighter can land clean and still KO you.

Pick: D Grant to Win by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission +550

McKinney Edges Ziam

Terrance McKinney looks to follow up his seven-second UFC debut with another finish here (+125). But he’s supposed to be in a tougher fight against Frenchman Fares Ziam. This seems to be a case where McKinney (11-3-0) either starches Ziam (12-3-0) quickly or he loses. But we don’t buy it.

“One does not simply” knock UFC-caliber fighters out. The flash KO against Matt Frevola, a battleworn “Just Bleed” throwback of a fighter, is a one-off. McKinney may just beat Ziam here but he won’t be putting him away. Instead, his decision prop at over 7-1 is the best prop bet here when betting online.

Pick: T McKinney To Win By Decision or Tec. Decision +750