UFC 314 Rodriguez vs Pitbull Prediction, Picks: Bet Over 2.5 Rounds April 12

Yair Rodriguez welcomes a Bellator legend to the UFC: Patricio “Pitbull” Freire. The UFC fight odds may favor “El Pantera” by 2/1, but Pitbull has his fair share of supporters. We’re not among them, as we see the former interim title holder with significant edges over the fighter many deemed as the greatest outside the promotion.

“(Yair Rodriguez) is a top-five contender and it puts me in a great place in that division.”

Patricio Pitbull (@PatricioPitbull) shares what it would mean to him to leave #UFC314 with a win.

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— UFC News (@UFCNews) April 6, 2025

Best Prop and Round Betting Picks for Rodriguez vs Pitbull

• Rodriguez (-195) Neutralizes Pitbull

Size matters. Even if both Rodriguez and Pitbull fight at featherweight, there is a size discrepancy here. Rodriguez is 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach while Pitbull is 5-6 with a reach of 65.5 inches, per UFC betting tips. While Pitbull has experience facing taller and lankier fighters, he’ll have issues bridging the gap with Rodriguez. As such, Rodriguez is the right side to bet on the UFC lines.

The Mexican fighter also knows he can get a quick trip back to title contention with a win over the high-profile newcomer. Pitbull said many fighters “ducked” him as he is a tough opponent who has a knockout win over Michael Chandler.

But Rodriguez is incredibly durable and has only been finished by strikes by Alexander Volkanovski and Frankie Edgar, former UFC champions and prolific wrestlers. Pitbull can wrestle, but he’s also past his prime at 37 with two losses (one by KO) in his last three fights.

Pitbull is also used to fighting five rounds, so he may not be used to the urgency of three rounds. Rodriguez also starts fast and throws nearly seven significant strikes per minute. On the ground, he is good off his back thanks to his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

A lot is going on in this fight, and most favor the favorite. He’s our UFC pick to win this featured bout of the main card.

Bet on Yair Rodriguez (-210)

Just how good is the Mexican Panther Yair Rodriguez 🇲🇽 pic.twitter.com/ihAeCuRyHF

— MannyBoom (@CutGuyMMA) December 17, 2023

• Fight Goes Over 2.5 Rounds or a Decision

This is a fight to watch, and we wish it could be five rounds. But it’s set at three rounds and may be slower-paced than fans anticipate. We see this going to a decision or the third round, at least. Yes, Rodriguez is always dangerous, as is Pitbull. At least half of their wins in the top promotions have come via finish. But the best UFC bet is to bet on this to go long.

There will be a “feeling out” process here, and we may see Rodriguez win the first two rounds by keeping Pitbull at bay. He’s old and does not have that same killer instinct he once had. Physically, he’s been through plenty of wars.

Rodriguez’s last four fights did not go to a decision, and neither did Pitbull’s last two, per Rodriguez vs Pitbull stats. But Rodriguez also went five rounds with Max Holloway in a slobberknocker while three of Pitbull’s last four fights against similarly built opponents went to the judges. Our UFC prediction is for this one to follow suit. Bet on over 2.5 rounds or a decision.

Bet on Over 2.5 Rounds (-170)

How to Watch UFC 314

• Fight: Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0), Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (36-7-0)
• Date/Time: Saturday, April 12, 10:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
• Rodriguez vs Pitbull Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

Question of the Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets