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UFC Underdog Opportunity: Why Holloway Is a Must-Bet on Saturday

Max Jerome Holloway will be a two-time champion this Saturday… sort of. The former featherweight champ is an underdog as he challenges Justin Gaethje for his ‘BMF’ title. Hence, it is a five-round fight even if the title is just for show. But despite his odds, we find Holloway to be one of the best UFC bets on Saturday.


UFC Underdog Opportunity: Why Holloway Is a Must-Bet on Saturday
UFC Underdog Opportunity: Why Holloway Is a Must-Bet on Saturday

Gaethje vs Holloway Fight Information

  • Fight: Gaethje (25-4-0) vs Holloway (25-7-0)
  • Date/Time: Saturday, Apr. 13, 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
  • Gaethje vs Holloway Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass


Holloway opened at +185 and has been bet down to +125 now. There is still value in his UFC odds as we estimate he has better than a 45.5% chance of winning. The Hawaiian has an iron jaw and is known for his work rate. Fighting at 155 pounds means he won’t have to cut as much weight, which could make him even better.

Gaethje vs Holloway Odds


  • Holloway is 3-2 in his last five fights as an underdog
  • Gaethje is 1-2 in his last three fights against younger fighters
  • Holloway is 5-0 in her last five fights against fighters outside of Alexander Volkanovski
  • Gaethje is 1-2 in his last three title fights (counting the ‘BMF’ fights)
  • The total has gone over in six of Gaethje’s last 10 fights against a striker
  • Eight of Holloway’s last nine fights have gone to a decision (and over the total)
  • Holloway has won four of his last five victories via decision
  • An average of 14.85 significant strikes per minute are absorbed in Gaethje’s fights


Gaethje vs Holloway ML Pick: Max Holloway (+125)

It’s time to bet online on the “Blessed” one while he is still at plus-money. This is a fight Holloway should win as Gaethje will try to stand and trade. Sure, Gaethje is also an All-American wrestler and can try to take Holloway down. But Gaethje has also only landed one takedown in his UFC career.

Holloway also has an 84% takedown defense and has not been taken down in five of his last seven fights. He will keep this fight standing and light up Gaethje, who absorbs a whopping 7.5 significant strikes per minute.

Gaethje may be the harder puncher here. But his power is overstated. Other than Edson Barboza, all the fighters he’s finished with his fists are either on a losing skid or out of the UFC. Our UFC expert pick is on the underdog, Holloway. Bet on him to win with confidence.



Gaethje vs Holloway O/U Pick: Over 4½ Rounds (-120)

Another solid UFC prediction is for this fight to go over 4½ rounds. At -120, this is not a bad secondary wager. Holloway is not a power puncher and his KO win over “Korean Zombie” is his first KO victory in over seven years. On the flip side, we don’t see Gaethje knocking Holloway out. This one is going to the judges.



Gaethje vs Holloway Player Prop Pick: Holloway to Win by Decision (+250)

On this note, get a better UFC line on Holloway by betting on his decision prop. At +250, this is almost a steal as we can’t envision Holloway finishing Gaethje. Both men are too tough and only a doctor’s stoppage will end this one prematurely.

UFC Betting Fans: Bet $200 & Get a $450 Bonus on your first deposit!



Gaethje vs Holloway Prediction

Holloway defeats Gaethje via unanimous decision



Questions Of The Day

Will Gaethje or Holloway land over 200 significant strikes?

Both fighters average around 7.2 significant strikes landed per minute. If the bout goes all 25 minutes, this is close to 200 strikes on each side.

What is the best betting line for Gaethje vs Holloway this UFC 300?

Betting Holloway at +125 is one of the best betting lines for UFC 300.

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