UFC Vegas 100 Predictions: Bet on Prates vs Magny Going Under 2.5 Rounds 11/9

Four years and 99 events later, the UFC Apex—originally used to help continue fight nights during the COVID-19 pandemic—approaches a significant milestone this weekend with its 100th showing.

The most exciting factor about UFC Vegas 100 isn’t the numerical value; however, it’s that a veteran in Neil Magny is going toe-to-toe with a 3-0 UFC newcomer who’s smashed all of his opponents inside two rounds since joining the promotion earlier this year.

The UFC betting lines are live, my fight tape is complete, and we’re a few sleeps from UFC Vegas 100. With that said, let’s dive into my complete breakdown and best bets for Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates.

The 100th Fight Night at the APEX 🤩@NeilMagny takes on Carlos Prates in the #UFCVegas100 main event!

[ Live on @ESPNPlus | SATURDAY | 7pmET/4pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/lbDaCYQPzC

— UFC (@ufc) November 4, 2024

UFC Vegas 100 Fight Information

• Date/Time: Saturday, November. 9, 2024 – 04:00 p.m. ET
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Carlos Prates vs Neil Magny Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Fight Bout: Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates
• Moneyline Probability: Magny – 16.7% (+500) Prates – 88.9% (-800)

Carlos Prates vs Neil Magny Betting Preview

Neil Magny: Veteran Dangers

Who do you call if everyone is scared to fight an up-and-coming prospect with eye-watering power? Neil “The Haitian Sensation” Magny. Since 2023, this UFC veteran has been on the promotion’s speed dial regarding call-ups to fight rising stars, including bouts with the likes of Ian Machado Garry, Mike Malott, and, most recently, Michael Morales.

Eleven years of service under the UFC banner, and although Magny never reached the heights of a champion, he’s fought and defeated some of the most recognizable former champions at 170lbs, e.g., Carlos Condit, Johnny Hendricks, Robbie Lawler.

Aged 32, of course, father time is creeping up on the Elevation Fight Team representative. Still, if there’s one thing we’ve learned about Magny over the years, it is that you should never overlook him as a betting underdog – shout out the +300 winning tickets that backed him over Malott earlier this year.

Neil Magny returns to the Octagon this Saturday at #UFCVegas100 against the hungry Carlos Prates! At 37, Magny holds numerous UFC records and is looking to add to his collection. Can he show the next generation that age and experience still dominate? #UFC #MMA #Fights pic.twitter.com/36f89sphVH

— The MMA District (@TheMMA_District) November 5, 2024

UFC Betting Fans: Bet $200 & Get a $450 Bonus on your first time deposit!

Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates: Turning Fight Night into Fright Night!

It’s quite fitting how Carlos Prates’ moniker is “The Nightmare” because whenever this Brazilian knockout artist enters the cage, Fight Night becomes “Fright Night” due to the scary punching power this welterweight slugger possesses.

You might believe that Halloween ended last week, but I wouldn’t be so sure with Prates scheduled to fight. He debuted for the UFC earlier this yearandknocked out Trevin Giles. Returned in the summer and sent his knee through the sternum of Charles Radtke for another KO victory, and then finished Jingliang Li in August with a blistering left hook, thus making him one scary dude!

Just 9 months after making his UFC debut, Carlos Prates is headlining his first main event! With 3 straight knockouts & Performance of the Night bonuses, Prates stock is quickly rising.

Will he secure another finish against the experienced Neil Magny this Saturday? #UFCVegas100 pic.twitter.com/BUy3q4pidc

— The MMA District (@TheMMA_District) November 5, 2024

Prates is stopping opponents at a high rate, dare I say, reminiscent of his fellow countryman and knockout artist Alex Pereira. Should he triumph over Neil Magny with his unruly power this Saturday, he’ll have finished four opponents inside the distance within nine months!

Oh, and did I forget to mention… He’s an avid cigarette puffer. This dude is just smoking hot right now.

“As an elite athlete, you have to have a perfect diet.”
Carlos Prates: pic.twitter.com/45HsFdqiK3

— Emiel Sardarean (@Standemup) November 5, 2024

Prates vs Magny: The Tale of The Tape

Prates vs Magny Inside the Octagon: Skillset Breakdown

Grappling is a MUST!

As a fourteen-year professional, Neil Magny hasn’t lost two consecutive fights since 2013. And yes, he’s coming off a loss heading into UFC Vegas 100, so that’s a serious trend for stat lovers out there. However, I think we can unanimously agree that without a successful wrestling game plan implemented, said trend will come crashing down, as Magny’s main priority will be to avoid drawn-out striking exchanges with his Brazilian foe, who thrives in such situations.

Fortunately for Magny, he’s a versatile martial artist, and dragging his opponents to the mat is often a viable option, especially if he can back them up against the cage. We’ve seen Prates back up in past fights, and Magny’s long length is useful when he throws the jab, so perhaps there is a world where he can cause the newcomer some issues.

Neil Magny winning this fight is genuinely hilarious. Clearly worse at every aspect of MMA except being tough & having good cardio. Malott let his shot at the top 15 slip through his fingers. Legit seconds away 😭 pic.twitter.com/4IzumQrZTm

— Liam Picks Fights (@LiamPicksFights) November 4, 2024

Constant Knockout Threat

The glaring problem with Magny backing Prates to the cage is that his power won’t be respected, and he’ll have to fight through many powerful strikes coming his way. Morales blasted through Magny’s chin, so, durability won’t be an issue for Prates either.

Prates must avoid the cage, and in turn, Magny’s best path to engaging a grapple fest will be removed. From there, it’s just a matter of time before the Brazilian makes his reads and turns the lights out versus a slower and older foe who’s previously lost seven fights inside the distance.

I don’t believe we need to worry about Prates smoking darts, either. He hasn’t displayed a tendency to waste energy; even when he initially dropped “The Leech,” he refused to pounce and patiently, like the sniper he is, allowed for the finishing sequence to arrive instead of pouncing on it and exerting energy.

Carlos Prates is a sniper 🇧🇷

Prates left hook knockout against The Leech #UFCVegas100 pic.twitter.com/5v1knr1qkj

— Delinquent MMA (@DelinquentMMA) November 3, 2024

Prates vs Magny Betting Trends

• Prates has won 9 consecutive MMA bouts by KO/TKO
• Magny was finished by a round 1 KO/TKO in August 2024
• Prates hasn’t fought beyond the second round in MMA since 2019
• 8 of Magny’s 11 UFC losses were by KO/TKO or submission

UFC Vegas 100: Best Pick for Prates vs Magny

Here’s the problem: the BetUS UFC odds on Prates’ moneyline is at -800. As much as I believe he’s live to collect another decisive victory, paying $800 to win $100 isn’t helping anyone’s bankroll on a long-term basis. Then, you might think the KO-prop can help us? Nope! -300 on the Prates by knockout is another juiced number I’m struggling to back.

Magny can sometimes be gun-shy, but Prates does have the jiu-jitsu capable of scrambling back to his feet, and I believe this will force a stand-up war where Magny will eventually engage and get flatlined as a result. Due to the odds, we’re limited in our selections; everything is juiced on Prates’ side, but the under 2 ½ rounds at -215 is the best of the bunch, especially when all but one of Magny’s eight losses by KO/TKO or submission were in rounds one or two and Prates has won 9 consecutive fights in rounds one or two.

Bet This Pick: Prates vs Magny Under 2 ½ Rounds (-215)

Prates vs Magny Betting Predictions

In this UFC welterweight main event matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that Neil Magny’s grappling upside will falter compared to that of the Brazilian knockout artist. The fight will start slow, but eventually, Magny’s confidence will fade once the takedowns don’t present themselves, and the blistering power of Prates will end this fight in the second round.

I don’t think Prates will be a future champ but man he’s entertaining asf to watch pic.twitter.com/zESWTwjAoK

— Veluta (@VelutaMMA) November 5, 2024

Potential Wagers from a Prates Round 2 Knockout

Here are my top UFC predictions for the Prates vs Magny fight

• Prates Moneyline [-800]
• Prates by KO/TKO [-300]
• Prates Round 2 KO/TKO [+400]
• Prates In Round 2 [+350]
• Under 2 ½ Rounds [-215]
• Fight Goes the Distance/No [-800]

Bet on any of these UFC 100 props at BetUS Sportsbook

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

Question of the Day