UFC Vegas 101 Prediction: Ribas vs Dern Odds and Best Bet for January 11

I’ve missed you, fight fans!

Just 82 hours, 16 minutes, and 45 seconds remain (At the time of writing) until our beloved UFC athletes return to the octagon and deliver that cage violence we’ve dearly missed. Four consecutive weeks without UFC programming has been a painstaking wait, not just because we’ve been unable to attack the UFC betting odds but because Saturdays don’t just hit right without the knockouts, submissions, and all-out-wars we’re so accustomed to watching each weekend.

I’ll be honest: Mackenzie Dern rematching Amanda Ribas as the first main event of 2025 isn’t the most hyped-about MMA contest, but these two ladies are as tough as they come, and they’re guaranteed to bring the heat.

On that note, it feels so good to be back. Naturally, I’ve dissected this Saturday’s main event festivities from an analytical standpoint to assist my fellow bettors in discovering the best UFC Vegas 101 betting picks and predictions.

IT’S FINALLY FIGHT WEEK!!!!

2025 kicks off with #UFCVegas101 👊

[ Saturday on @ESPNPlus | 4pmET/1pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/ndhkdLWKcw

— UFC (@ufc) January 6, 2025

UFC Vegas 101 Event Information

• Date/Time: Saturday, January 11, 2025 – 04:00 p.m. ET
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
• UFC Vegas 101 Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass, DAZN
• Main Event Bout: Mackenzie Derb vs Amanda Ribas 2
• Co-Main Event Bout: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris
• Moneyline Probability: Dern – 39.2% (+155) Ribas – 64.9% (-185)

Amanda Ribas vs Mackenzie Dern Betting Preview

1. Mackenzie Dern

Having obtained a 3rd degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and championship titles at every belt level in the sport, she’s known as one of the most highly regarded women’s BJJ practitioners in history. This doesn’t just make her a bad b! However, transitioning to MMA gave her an advantage over many competitors en route to joining the UFC in 2018.

While Dern’s grappling dominance hasn’t always panned out inside the octagon, she’s 9-5 under the UFC banner with four submission wins and a plethora of grappling exchanges where she’s looked untouchable against the competition.

With a no.6 ranking in the women’s strawweight division, Dern returns to action this weekend following an impressive out and win over Loopy Godinez. Still, on paper, victories against foes with higher-ranking placements have been few and far between. To truly make a stamp on the division and push herself into the title picture, defeating divisional floaters like her opponent this weekend is a must, and it would seem BetUS Sportsbook doesn’t have much faith in her doing so.

Looking to start 2025 off with a BANG 💥@MackenzieDern headlines #UFCVegas101 this SATURDAY! pic.twitter.com/BH4ydkbXt1

— UFC (@ufc) January 6, 2025

2. Amanda Ribas

Flyweight or strawweight? Pick a division, Amanda! It would seem everyone’s favorite smiling Brazilian doesn’t love the 115lb weight cut – with regular appearances at flyweight – but has been willing to compete at the lower weight to find her ideal fighting home. We’re still waiting for this to happen, and after a recent 125lb losing battle with Rose Namajunas, her only fight of 2024, the Brazilian is again back down a weight class to compete versus a familiar foe.

A lot, however, has changed since Ribas first met Dern in 2019, particularly for the latter, who’s been crafting her all-around MMA tools to blend with her jiu-jitsu prowess. In contrast, in recent years, we’ve watched Ribas compete less and lose more often, with three of her previous five bouts ending in misery.

She has no problem finishing a fight on the ground 💪

Don’t miss @AmandaRibasUFC in the #UFCVegas101 main event! pic.twitter.com/EM2D1ZRM1m

— UFC (@ufc) January 6, 2025

Ribas vs Dern: The Tale of The Tape

Stay updated! Make sure to check the latest UFC news here.

Inside the Octagon: Ribas vs Dern Skillset Breakdown

Here’s the ongoing consensus: Ribas is the better striker, with respectable ground skills and a greater overall MMA skillset. Therefore, she will win the rematch, similar to how she did in 2019.

Here’s the kicker: While Ribas is more efficient in striking exchanges and is undeniably a credible defensive grappler with zero submission losses on her record, she’s not exactly a kickboxing whizz. Recent bouts have displayed many concerns in her tactical approach, alongside other red flags such as confusion about the best weight class and fight IQ.

UFC betting fans know Ribas cannot wrestle very well, and her striking isn’t pretty. She’s viable in all areas, but cardio and toughness are her greatest assets. With Dern, she also has solid cardio and toughness. Although she’s the less technical striker of the two, her kickboxing has leveled up enough to where I wouldn’t be surprised to see her enter the pocket like a mad woman, throwing bombs, just to engage in a clinch to drag this fight to her world.

When Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas first met in the Octagon…

Repeat or Revenge at #UFCVegas101 on Saturday?! pic.twitter.com/c458Rpbp2f

— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) January 8, 2025

Ribas vs Dern Betting Trends

• Ribas has lost 3 of her previous 5 UFC bouts
• Ribas has fought on just one occasion since November 2023
• Dern won her most recent UFC bout by unanimous decision

Ribas vs Dern: Best Bet Is on Underdog Dern

I see a fighter in Dern, who’s undeniably evolved and gained confidence since the first fight, versus Ribas, who, despite giving a credible performance against Rose Namajunas, is seemingly regressing in her performances.

Skill-for-skill, there’s no denying Ribas has more tools. And honestly, if this were a strict kickboxing contest, I’d be happy to back her as the victor, as she owns greater footwork, shot selection, and overall striking experience. Unfortunately for her, this is MMA, and as a fighter who struggles to avoid firefights, I envision her being dragged into Mackenzie’s world at some stage, where the jiu-jitsu champion, who’s proven to have consistent wrestling and ground capabilities, will win more of the five rounds than not.

Ribas feels like a jack of all trades but a master of none, whereas Dern has an elite skill set. Outside factors like cardio and durability will be even, but when I see a plus-money MMA odds on the fighter who does possess the elite tool of the two, I cannot ignore it.

Bet This Pick: Mackenzie Dern Moneyline (+155)

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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