UFC Vegas 104 Perfect Prop Picks and Predictions for This Weekend: Bet on Cunningham at +550 Odds

· Mar 14 - 7 minutes read

Our first prop pick is Da’Mon Blackshear by Submission (+210).
AJ Cunningham to win by KO/TKO (+550) holds some insane betting value.
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Another week of octagon brutality is just around the corner, and we all know these Fight Night cards don’t hit right without some UFC prop bets to boost the bankroll.

UFC Vegas 104 Perfect Prop Picks and Predictions for This Weekend: Bet on Cunningham at +550 Odds — Da’Mon Blackshear | Paul Rutherford/Getty Images/AFP

Fortunately, I’m a connoisseur of UFC expert picks, and with my week-long study complete, I’m back to share my best MMA picks and predictions on this weekend’s UFC Vegas 104 fight card, headlined by a middleweight rematch involving Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze.

The time for talking is over, let’s find the UFC betting value!

UFC Vegas 104 How To Watch

Date and Time: Saturday, March. 15, 2025 – 04:00 p.m. ET
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
Main Event Bout: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze 2
Co-Main Event Bout: Elizeu Zaleski vs. Chidi Njokuani
Scheduled Fights: 13
Biggest UFC Vegas 104 Betting Favorite: Josias Musasa @ -900
Biggest UFC Vegas 104 Betting Underdog: Carlos Vera @ +575

UFC Vegas 104 2 Best Prop Picks and Predictions

1. Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson

UFC rumors will have you believing that Da’Mon Blackshear (15-7-1) is more talented than what his pro record suggests, and to some extent, they’re not wrong. We all know styles make fights, and there’s a reason why oddsmakers have attached a -390 moneyline to his name this weekend, and that’s mostly due to the lacklustre abilities of his opponent, Cody Gibson (21-10).

Gibson, 37, arrived at the UFC in 2024, lost three of his four fights, and was justifiably cut from the promotion. He spent the next six years clawing his way through various MMA promotions before eventually returning to the big stage via The Ultimate Fighter. Unfortunately, not a lot has changed, and arguably, as a competitor in his late thirties, his chance of success is worse than ever.

I don’t want to be overly critical because stepping into the octagon is no easy feat. That said, Gibson isn’t on a UFC level. He’s 2-2 since returning, giving him a 3-5 UFC record overall. Now he’s faced with a young, athletic Blackshear, who, despite suffering various setbacks, is a dangerous opponent for anyone in the lower end of the rankings.

Bet This Pick: Da’Mon Blackshear by Submission (+210)

Da’Mon Blackshear snubs Cody Gibson’s handshake in their face-off 😬#UFCVegas104

pic.twitter.com/CEyV8c5Ydf

— Verdict (@VerdictMMA) March 14, 2025

Blackshear on the Mats

What I find interesting about this fight is that Gibson does love a takedown or two. Considering that he’ll be slower to the punch in striking exchanges, the takedowns feel inevitable. I wouldn’t be surprised if he lands them either, but he’ll be playing right into the wheelhouse of Blackshear, which is, jiu-jitsu!

Blackshear has a mean grappling offense, and when you combine this with youth and athletic prowess, you have a fighter who has finished 10 of his 15 pro career wins by submission. Whether he eventually catches Gibson’s back for a rear-naked or locks his neck elsewhere, e.g., guillotine, eventually, I envision the favorite finishing this one and adding another submission finish to his record.

Conor McGregor’s famous quote: “Who the f*** is this guy,” has been spiralling around the latest UFC news because Jeremy Stephens is returning to the octagon. You might be wondering how that’s relevant, but funnily we should be asking that question for Saturday’s prelim clash between Su Young You and AJ Cunningham… “Who the f*** are these guys”?

More to the point, why the f*** is You, an unproven, untested Korean wrestler entering this fight with -625 moneyline price attached to his name? This is arguably the craziest set of odds you’ll see when you bet on UFC this weekend, and while Cunningham’s abilities are nothing to run home about, this matchmaking and odds-making has dog or pass written all over it!

Blackshear vs. Gibson Betting Trends

Blackshear has won 10 of his 15 pro-MMA bouts by submission
40% of Gibson’s pro career losses were by submission (4)
Blackshear has a 100% finish rate in his UFC wins

“I want to make sure it’s in my hands, I want to go out there and finish”

Da’Mon Blackshear anticipates a win and an early night at #UFCVegas104 this weekend.

Fight By Fight Preview: https://t.co/niiLUQpePc

— UFC News (@UFCNews) March 13, 2025

2. Su Young You vs. AJ Cunningham

Yes, you will have a wrestling advantage. However, he’s fought a bunch of cans throughout his career, mostly low-level opponents on the regional scene, and what we do know about AJ Cunningham is that he’s definitely going to fight for your money.

In striking exchanges, I don’t envision a world where You comes out on top. The takedown threats are real, but at this price, we cannot ignore the chance for an upset in a contest that’s literally 50/50 and should be -110 either side!

Bet This Pick: AJ Cunningham by KO/TKO or Decision (+550)

This is AJ Cunningham.

He’s fighting on Dana White’s Contender series tonight to win a UFC contract.

AJ had an insane childhood being forced to eat dog food & take steroids by his Neo-Nazi father until he eventually got adopted into a new family.

We’re all rooting for him. pic.twitter.com/ko6ZhtKMJs

— 𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙤💫 (@sinoUFC) September 12, 2023

The Dog Will Bark

Cunningham might get taken down, but will this continuously happen for 15 straight minutes? It’s also worth noting that Cunningham is 5’10 “, just went the distance with Ludovit Klein at 155 lbs, and is now dropping to 135 lbs to face a 5’6” opponent!

Here’s the reality: You came to prominence via The Road to UFC. This Asian-based product of the UFC hasn’t provided much talent worth mentioning. He also took a split decision against Daermisi Zhawupasi, landed 8 of 14 takedown attempts, and managed just 3 minutes of control time because he couldn’t keep his opponent down. Now, you’re fighting a much larger opponent with great durability who can crack, and you’re a -600 fave. No thanks, mate!

Cunningham has been severely outclassed in recent contests, fair. However, this is a huge drop in competition, and for the first time in a while, he’s fighting a grappling-based fighter whom he should be able to molly whop on the feet.

Give me the KO/TKO or decision prop for +550 because there are just too many red flags on this Korean “prospect.”

Yu vs. Cunningham Betting Trends

Here are some UFC betting trends to consider:

You lost by knockout in 2023 on the Russian MMA regional scene
Cunningham has won 7 of his 11 pro-MMA bouts by KO/TKO or decision

“I feel like I’m super underestimated going into this bout and I’m ready to shock the world”

AJ Cunningham is ready to prove to everyone the extent of his training and preparation ahead of #UFCVegas104 this weekend.

Fight By Fight Preview : https://t.co/niiLUQoGZE

— UFC News (@UFCNews) March 11, 2025