UFC Vegas 106 Parlay Picks for May 17: Bet on Ruziboev, Erosa vs Costa Under 2.5 Rounds

Dana White and Co. return to the trusty Apex Center for UFC Vegas 106 this weekend. Although it’ll be difficult to match the excitement levels from last week’s UFC 315, Saturday’s schedule on paper does provide some absolute bangers we’re getting hyped up for!

As we approach another Fight Night, you already know it’s time for a ‘Punching Parlay,’ and with 12 fights to choose from, I’ve found what I believe to be the best UFC bets tonight for UFC Vegas 106!

It’s time!

#UFCVegas106 pic.twitter.com/GWUepSEJzb

— Jed I. Goodman © (@jedigoodman) May 12, 2025

Top 2 UFC Vegas 106 Parlay Picks

Nursulton Ruziboev vs Dustin Stoltzfus: Ruziboev Wins (+310)

Pennsylvania’s own, Dustin Stoltzfus, hasn’t had the worst UFC run at 185 lbs, but it hasn’t been the greatest either. Following his impressive Dana White’s Contender Series stoppage of Joe Pyfer way back in 2020, where he slammed the arm off the guy, he entered the UFC and lost three straight. Then, he lost another two between two wins over lackluster competition, giving him the 3-5 UFC record he holds today.

While the 3-5 record isn’t great, it’s the fashion in which he’s lost those five bouts that should concern bettors. Behind an 80% stoppage loss statistic, he’s split four of his losses between knockout and submission defeats. Offensively on the ground, his jiu-jitsu isn’t bad, but when it comes to back-takes, it’s almost like he doesn’t know how to defend them.

I believe Stoltzfus does display his best work on the feet. But again, much like his ground game, the defensive end of his striking can be reckless, with the absence of a high guard and predictable combinations.

Why does any of this matter? Well, his opponent, Nursulton Ruziboev, is a blood-hungry stopping machine with 33 of his 35 career wins coming by KO/TKO or submission (13 KOs, 20 submissions).

Bet on This Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev Moneyline (-310)

Nursulton Ruziboev(32-8-2) vs “The Hulk” Brunno Ferreira(10-0)

UFC FN: Strickland vs Magomedov

July 1st 2023 pic.twitter.com/T7S9BWur1k

— Underrated Tribal Chief (@MMAUnderrated) May 12, 2025

Staying on the Ruziboev Train

There was, perhaps, a little too much hype in UFC news on Ruziboev’s name when he joined the promotion, and it wasn’t long before Joaquin Buckley exposed him. However, this lone loss was against an elite welterweight contender, and as a large and natural middleweight, the Uzbek native has looked unstoppable with three wins inside the distance under the UFC banner.

Ruziboev will have more paths to victory, a pressured style that will force Stoltzfus’ recklessness. So long as he doesn’t play a technical game, I don’t envision anything other than another stoppage win for the favorite.

Sure, the odds are slightly juiced, but -310 is a nice addition for our punching parlay and UFC expert picks!

Another finish added to the resume ✅

Nursulton Ruziboev gets the KO early in round 2 at #UFCSeattle! pic.twitter.com/3B6u1FKlpY

— UFC (@ufc) February 22, 2025

Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa: Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

Juicy J is back, and you know what that means? He’s going to force his opponent into an exciting war, and a potential Fight of the Night contender.

Opposite Julian Erosa will be Melquizael Costa, and these two men have one thing in common: they’re both riding a 3-fight win streak, entering Vegas with all the confidence and some pretty dangerous skills to match.

Bet on This Pick: Erosa vs Costa Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

THREE IN A ROW NOW FOR JUICY J 😮‍💨

Julian Erosa earns the Round 1 TKO in Miami! 👊

[ #UFC314 LIVE NOW on @ESPNPlus PPV ] pic.twitter.com/Medzff42p2

— UFC (@ufc) April 13, 2025

No Judges Required

Costa has the BJJ defense to avoid one of Juicy J’s tricky submissions, and on the feet, this is where the Brazilian can shine. However, we’re not interested in the moneyline prices here because more than anything, this fight is screaming ‘stoppage.’

As mentioned, Erosa always brings the heat, and that’s whether he wins or loses. In 11 of his last 13 UFC appearances, he’s won or lost by KO/TKO or submission. For Costa, his UFC tenure hasn’t been that much different, besides the experience, as he’s only seen the judges in 2 of 6 bouts.

I don’t envision any room for playing it safe when these two enter the octagon, and considering the UFC fight night odds for the under are sitting at an excellent price, I have no qualms in making this the second leg of our parlay, which tips us into the plus-money region.

Not sure why, but this man is plus money for his fight not to go the distance this weekend…👀

Seems like value to me… #UFCVegas29 👊 #JulianErosahttps://t.co/zY7VPPOHBB

— Manyun🍀 (@DManyun_) June 17, 2021

UFC Vegas 106 Best Bets: 2-Leg Parlay (+115)

• Ruziboev Moneyline (-310)
• Erosa/Costa Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

Bet This Parlay at BetUS!

UFC Vegas 106 How to Watch

• Date and Time: Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 04:00 p.m. ET
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Scheduled Fights: 12
• Main Event Bout: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
• Co-Main Event Bout: Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Find the best UFC odds at BetUS

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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