UFC Vegas 106 Perfect Prop Picks for This Weekend: Bet on Ruziboev and Bellato

Another week of octagon violence awaits, but those Fight Night festivities aren’t the same without betting on UFC prop markets to boost the bankroll.

Fear not; your resident UFC expert is back, and I’ll share my best picks and UFC odds for this weekend’s UFC Vegas 106 fight card, headlined by welterweight standouts Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales.

Let’s get straight into it!

Top 2 Prop Bets for UFC Fight Night

1. Nursulton Ruziboev vs Dustin Stoltzfus: Ruziboev by KO/TKO or Submission (-185)

Are you a Nursultan Ruziboev believer, or a hater? I’m the former, and while some will claim his 46-fight pro MMA record was padded outside of the UFC, that hasn’t stopped him from collecting a 3-1 record thus far, with all three of his UFC wins coming by knockout!

So, let’s talk about his lone defeat. Joaquin Buckley, the welterweight brute who has rapidly risen through the rankings to place himself as a top contender. That’s not a bad loss for Ruziboev, by any means, and as we’ve seen, a lower level of opposition means one thing… the experienced Uzbek will deliver some pain.

In step, Dustin Stoltzfus, who holds a negative 3-5 UFC record, with 4 of his 5 losses coming by knockout or submission. MMA math isn’t always the most truthworthy of approaches, but trust me on this one, once you watch the tape on Stoltzfus, you’ll realise that he’s in for a rough night versus the always-dangerous Ruzi!

Bet on Ruziboev by KO/TKO or Submission (-185)

NURSULTON RUZIBOEV, WELCOME TO THE UFC 💥 #UFCVegas76 pic.twitter.com/ZupJfANQid

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) July 1, 2023

Night Night!

I’ll give Stoltzfus credit because his kickboxing game is credible when he’s focused and tactical. However, time and time again, we’ve watched him get too wild in the octagon, and this has cost him against much lower-talent opponents than what Ruziboev will be.

Expect speedier combinations, the more precise outside striking, and most importantly, a deadly kill shot from Ruziboev in this bout. And should Stoltzfus want to play on the ground, Ruzi has an underrated ground game and can easily wrap up a submission should he need to in order to secure our UFC prop picks!

Ruziboev vs Stoltzfus Betting Trends

• 4 of Stoltzfus’ 5 UFC losses came by KO/TKO or submission
• Ruziboev is 3-1 in the UFC with three knockout wins.
• Ruziboev has 33 career wins by KO/TKO or submission

Another finish added to the resume ✅

Nursulton Ruziboev gets the KO early in round 2 at #UFCSeattle! pic.twitter.com/3B6u1FKlpY

— UFC (@ufc) February 22, 2025

2. Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato: Bellato by KO/TKO (-165)

The ‘Bearjew,’ who has been absent from UFC news for some time, is back! And while he’s everyone’s favorite Scottish fighter, his days of cashing as a betting underdog are well behind us. Having lost 5 of his last 6 UFC appearances, including defeats to Bo Nickal and Johnny Walker that haven’t aged well, the 37-year-old is reaching the latter stage of his career, and Saturday’s scrap might, albeit a drop down in competition in the eyes of many, could result in more upset for the Brit.

Rodolfo Bellato has just one win and one draw in the UFC. However, after dropping the first round to Jimmy Crute last time out, it was clear to see he was the better striker in rounds two and three, despite the majority draw decision. It would seem that he underrated his own kickboxing here, and with the correct game-planning, overcoming a one-dimensional grappler in Craig might be as easy as the UFC lines suggest.

Bet on Bellato by KO/TKO (-165)

Ruthless matchmaking from the UFC by giving, the already chin-less, Paul Craig a fight w/ Rodolfo Bellato.

Would’ve liked to see a more age-friendly matchup.

Instead, at 37, he gets Bellato after coming off fights vs Nickal, Allen, & Borralho.

RD1 KO. Incoming.#UFCVegas106 pic.twitter.com/ev3TyODGmh

— I AM SATURDAY (@I_AM_SATURDAY) May 12, 2025

Bellato Has More Tools

Undoubtedly, Craig has the experience advantage, but as a lifelong grappler who thrives on his BJJ skill set, how will he fare versus a fellow grappler who will also be the more talented striker of the two?

Bellato should know that Craig’s path to victory is on the ground. Therefore, a striking game plan is the obvious path. But even if we get some grappling, the Brazilian isn’t going to get caught in some tricky Craig triangle, and much like the Crute scrap, I believe Bellato can own this fight on the feet.

At some point during this fight, Craig will realize the takedowns aren’t an option. Bellato will throw with intent for 15 straight minutes if needed, but with the blistering shots we’ve seen him throw in the past, I don’t believe Craig’s durability can withstand them.

And let’s be honest, if you’re getting knocked out by Caio Borralho, a known grappler, his probability of surviving a legit power puncher like Bellato isn’t high.

Bellato by knockout… Book those UFC fight odds!

Craig vs Bellato Betting Trends:

• Craig has lost 5 UFC bouts by knockout
• 7 of Bellato’s 12 pro-MMA wins ended by KO/TKO
• Craig has a 9-9 UFC record and has lost 3 straight

Rodolfo Bellato vs Ihor Potieria

December 2nd 2023

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan pic.twitter.com/lqJVi2nVNM

— OG_Trillmatic (@OTrillmatic) March 26, 2024

UFC Vegas 106 Best Prop Bets

• Nursultan Ruziboev by KO/TKO or Submission (-185)
• Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO (-165)

UFC Vegas 106 How to Watch

• Date and Time: Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 04:00 p.m. ET
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
• Co-Main Event Bout: Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato
• Scheduled Fights: 12
• Biggest UFC Vegas 106 Betting Favorite: Michael Morales @ -600
• Biggest UFC Vegas 106 Betting Underdog: Gilbert Burns @ +425

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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