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UFC Vegas 40: Lock of the Week

UFC Vegas 40 is set for the Apex in Las Vegas Saturday and we’ll look to rely on Octagon experience for one of our UFC bets. Jim Miller is set to face Erick Gonzalez on the main card that begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Miller Will Take No Chances

Avoiding Knockout helps

Everybody is talking about the number of fights Jim Miller has had under the UFC banner but the competition he’s faced is what really makes him scary. Competition against champions and former champions makes a pick against Miller difficult.

Jim Miller Brawls UFC Vegas 40 Picks
Anthony Geathers/Getty Images/AFP

Miller has faced the likes of Benson Henderson, Dan Hooker and is even 1-1 with current UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. You can make the argument that Miller deserved a title shot early in his UFC career when he was on a seven-fight win streak defeating all of those opponents by Submission, TKO or decision.

His ground game is on another level and he has experience in the octagon that allows him to know what to expect against big punchers. He does well with dodging power and has not been knocked out since facing Dan Hooker when he absorbed a knee in the first round in 2018.

Gonzalez Strategy

Gonzalez could potentially finish an opponent with one punch but it doesn’t come often. He has a TKO finish on the regional circuit this year but that is not something with which Miller is uncomfortable.

Miller’s one fight with Anthony Pettis alone should be enough to prepare for the striking department, not to mention his ability to negate striking with a takedown.

It would make sense for Miller to take Gonzalez down and secure one of his signature submissions. All of his last 5 submission wins have come in the first round. Punch your ticket at the sportsbook for the under between Miller and Gonzalez.

Pick: Jim Miller 2½ (+155u)

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