UFC Vegas 40 is getting slandered as it looks to be the worst free offering from the organization in a long time. It’s these unsuspecting cards with relative unknowns that can produce some brilliant mixed martial arts action. Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont headline the event and we did not shy away from backing the dog here.
True to that theme, we scoped the UFC betting odds and found at least three more underdogs on the undercard to support. Along with a lucrative prop bet, here are our plus-money picks for UFC Vegas 40.
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 16, 4 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex, Enterprise, NV, United States
- Watch on: ESPN+
UFC Vegas 40 Prelim Picks
Jim Miller vs Erick Gonzalez
Moneyline: Erick Gonzalez +175, Jim Miller -220
Total: Over 2½ (-150), Under 2½ (+120)
Weight Class (Rounds): Lightweight (155 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Jim Miller (32-16-0) debuted in the UFC the same year iPhone 3G came out. Yep, the grizzled veteran holds several records in the division including the most submission wins. He submitted current champion, Charles Oliveira. And he enters this fight as a slight favorite over late replacement Erick Gonzalez (14-5-0).
Gonzalez is a decent fighter but nowhere near the caliber of opponents Miller has faced. Even in his advanced age, Miller should be able to get the job done against Gonzalez. In fact, Miller to get his fifth straight submission victory here. At over 2-1, that’s the best UFC bet.
Pick: J Miller To Win By KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission +220
Julian Marquez vs Jordan Wright
Moneyline: Jordan Wright +200, Julian Marquez -250
Total: Over 1½ (+115), Under 1½ (-145)
Weight Class (Rounds): Middleweight (185 lbs ) (3 Rounds)
Julian Marquez (9-2-0) versus Jordan Wright (12-1-0) is like a fight between a tank and a fighter jet. Either the fighter jet blows up the tank quickly or the tank withstands everything the jet fires at it and shoots it out of the sky. The latter scenario is more likely here hence why Marquez is the sizable favorite.
However, 7-1 on the sportsbook for a first-round victory for Wright is too good to pass up. This is his only avenue to winning. The “Beverly Hills Ninja” has 10 of his 11 victories in the first round. While Marquez has a granite chin, Wright has powerful legs and unpredictable moves that could floor any fighter. It’s worth a dart throw at these odds.
Pick: J Wright To Win in Round 1 (+700)
Ludovit Klein vs Nate Landwehr
Moneyline: Nate Landwehr +260, Ludovit Klein -360
Total: Over 2½ (+125), Under 2½ (-155)
Weight Class (Rounds): Featherweight (145 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Like the Marquez-Wright fight, this is another dog shot worth taking. Ludovit Klein (17-3-0) is expected to knock Nate Landwehr (14-4-0) out, likely in the first round. But even with his array of first-round finishes, one does not simply knock out UFC fighters.
Landwehr has what many consider a suspect chin thanks to his two KO losses. But Landwehr is a hardcore grinder and can constantly pressure and break Klein. He either eats another knee and goes down early, or he takes Klein to deep waters and pulls the upset. The latter is a lot more appealing.
Pick: Nate Landwehr +260
Brandon Davis vs Danaa Batgerel
Moneyline: JP Buys +425, Montel Jackson -650
Total: Over 1½ (-155), Under 1½ (+125)
Weight Class (Rounds): Bantamweight (135 lbs)
We mean it as a compliment when we say Brandon Davis (14-8-0) is a discount Diaz brother. The American returns to the promotion, this time as a bantamweight, where he will be bigger than Danaa Batgerel (9-2-0). Davis is durable and has cardio for days.
If he is unaffected by the weight cut, Davis has solid value as an underdog here. He will be the one coming forward and pressing the attack. Even if Batgerel will be landing the cleaner shots, Davis’s volume and aggression will be what wins the judges over. Bet online for Davis to pull the slight upset here.