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UFC Vegas 86 Deep Dive: MMA Odds and Betting Preview – Hermansson vs Pyfer

There’s no rest for the wicked, particularly if the wicked love to handicap the Ultimate Fighting Championship because another highly anticipated main event is upon us, and we’re sharing our best UFC bets tonight.

After just three fights with the promotion, rising star Joe Pyfer puts his undefeated UFC streak on the line versus a veteran of the game in Jack Hermansson.

UFC Vegas 86 Deep Dive: MMA Odds & Betting Preview – Hermansson vs. Pyfer
UFC Vegas 86 Deep Dive: MMA Odds & Betting Preview – Hermansson vs. Pyfer

UFC Vegas 86 is just three days away; the betting lines are live, so let’s waste no time and jump straight into our deep dive of the Hermansson vs. Pyfer main event contest.

UFC Vegas 86 Information

1. Date and Time: Saturday, Feb. 10, 2024 – 04:00 p.m. ET
2. Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
3. Hermansson vs Pyfer Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
4. Main Event Bout: Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer
5. Moneyline Probability: Hermansson – 31.7% (+215) Pyfer – 73% (-270)


Hermansson vs Pyfer Betting Odds

UFC Vegas 86: Fighter Previews

Jack “The Joker” Hermansson

Reaching his eighth year as a competitive UFC middleweight, Sweden’s Jack Hermansson is no stranger to rising stars looking to make a name off his top-tier ranking. Sure, he isn’t getting any younger, and a record displaying alternate wins and losses doesn’t look the best on paper. However, he’ll unquestionably be the most challenging fight of Pyfer’s career to date.

In his own words, Hermansson said: “It’s a basic game plan: hit him without getting hit.” The question is, can the gritty veteran avoid Pyfer’s concrete fists for five rounds?

  • Moneyline Odds: Hermansson (+215)
  • Hermansson Betting Trends
  • Hermansson has alternated wins and losses since 2019 (He lost his previous bout)
  • Hermansson has cashed as a betting underdog in just 1 of his 16 UFC bouts
  • Hermansson has been knocked out on three occasions in the UFC

Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer

Since garnering the attention of UFC betting fans and the UFC’s top brass on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022, Joe Pyfer has rapidly emerged as one of the top middleweight prospects despite competing as an official UFC roster member in a mere three contests.

Why? Well, it’s simple; he’s run through the competition, including Alen Amedovski, Gerald Meerschaert, and Abdul Razak Alhassan, all of whom suffered a first or second-round knockout or submission.

Three fights deep into his UFC tenure, and Pyfer will headline a Fight Night event this weekend, as his star potential is now under the spotlight even more so after beating Francis Ngannou’s hardest-punch record at the UFC Performance Institute. No, this isn’t a typo; according to the computers, science, and all that good stuff, he hits harder than the most feared heavyweight bomber in sports history.

  • Moneyline Odds: Pyfer(-270)
  • Pyfer Betting Trends
  • Pyfer hasn’t fought beyond a second round since his second pro bout in 2018
  • Pyfer has won 5 consecutive pro-MMA bouts inside the distance (KO or Sub)


Hermansson vs Pyfer: Tale of The Tape

Fighter Jack Hermansson/b> Joe Pyfer
Country Sweden USA
Age 35 27
Pro Record 23-8-0 12-2-0
KO/Sub/Dec 10 KOs, 7 Submissions 8 KOs, 3 Submissions
Height 6’1” 6’2”
Reach 77.5” 75.0”
Knockdown Avg (15 min) 0 1.19
Avg Strikes Landed Per Min 5.13 3.64
Takedown Avg (15 min) 1.66 2.97
Win/Loss (Last 5) L/W/L/W/L W/W/W/W/W

UFC Vegas 86: Main Event Breakdown and Analysis

Hermansson Fight Style and How Can Hermansson Defeat Pyfer

Experience and ability to point-fight his way to a decision are two key factors that give Hermansson a chance to conquer the hype train of Joe Pyfer this weekend.

The Swede has demonstrated a simple yet effective game plan versus the likes of Chris Curtis and Edmen Shahbazyan in the past. However, unlike those contests, he won’t have a size advantage, as delivering jabs and low kicks at range could prove more difficult.

The Best path to victory for Hermansson: Frustrate Pyfer by keeping his distance, attack low kicks, and drag the fight into the later rounds where his opponent is unproven.

Pyfer Fight Style & How Can Pyfer Defeat Hermansson

It’s Pyfer’s time to shine, and it’s undoubtedly a contest in which the UFC will support their rising middleweight star.

The most obvious path to victory for Pyfer would fall behind his power-striking and aggressive nature. He’s eight years younger, significantly faster, and, honestly, owns a violent nature that’s perfectly fearless for breaking through the range of Hermansson to knock the underdog unconscious.

Pyfer is the best UFC betting pick of the night.

The Best path to victory for Pyfer: “Be like Joe Pyfer” and break the will of Hermansson with aggression, forward pressure, and heavy shots before finding the kill shot.

Hermansson vs Pyfer Prediction:

UFC Vegas 86 Best Bet: Pyfer By KO, TKO, or DQ (+125)

I don’t expect Hermansson to have the muscle or durability to withstand Pyfer’s oncoming attacks. In a kickboxing battle, we know the former will want to stay out of range, but that’s easier said than done, and eventually, the youth and speed of Pyfer triumph in the small Apex cage where movement is limited and smaller spaces favor power punchers.

Sportsbook opening odds of -250 have since moved to -270, but as I’m confident in Pyfer’s finishing ability, backing him to win by KO is offering +125 in the UFC this week.

UFC Vegas 86 Main Event: The Crystal Ball Predictions

In this striker v striker matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that Pyfer will find his way inside the pocket of Hermansson, back him up against the cage, and find the finishing shots to land a KO or TKO finish by the second round.

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Potential Bets from Pyfer Round 2 Knockout:




Questions of the Day

Is Joe Pyfer the hardest puncher in the UFC?

According to the PowerKube punch machine at the UFC PI center, Joe Pyfer registered the hardest-even punch (170 units of force) and defeated the previous record of 129 units held by Francis Ngannou.

Is Joe Pyfer the rightful betting favorite versus Jack Hermansson?

Experience and a higher level of competition suggest that Hermansson is being slightly overlooked at +215. Still, given the age and speed advantages Pyfer owns in this bout, it isn’t difficult to see why he’s favored at UFC Vegas 86

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