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UFC Vegas 87 Rozenstruik vs Gaziev: MMA Odds and Predictions

The UFC Apex in Las Vegas plays host to an intriguing heavyweight main event this weekend, and I’m here to assist with all your UFC betting needs.

A formidable knockout artist, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, with all seven of his UFC triumphs arriving via knockout, welcomes a fresh-faced heavyweight to the division, Shamil Gaziev, a Dagestan native who’s maintained an unblemished 12-0 pro record to date.

UFC Vegas 87 Rozenstruik vs Gaziev: MMA Odds and Predictions
UFC Vegas 87 Rozenstruik vs Gaziev: MMA Odds and Predictions

These heavyweights are guaranteed to throw heavy leather; the betting lines are live, so let’s waste no time and jump straight into our deep dive of the UFC Vegas 87 main event and our UFC picks for the fight.

 

UFC Vegas 87 Event Information

1. Date/Time: Saturday, March. 2, 2024 – 01:30 p.m. ET
2. Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
3. How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass / ESPN+
4. Main Event Bout: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev
5. Co-Main Event Bout: Victor Petrino vs Tyson Pedro
6. Moneyline Probability: Rozenstruik – 2.4% (+125) Gaziev – 8% (-155)

 

Rozenstruik vs Gaziev Betting Odds

 

UFC Vegas 87: Fighter Previews

Jairzinho “Bigi-Boy” Rozenstruik

Suriname native Jairzinho Rozenstruik was in a similar position to his UFC Vegas 87 opponent just four years ago. He entered the UFC undefeated, behind a vicious track record, and managed to kickstart his tenure amongst the upper echelon of pro-MMA by finishing his first four UFC bouts by KO.

With a decorated background in kickboxing, “Bigi Boy” has been an octagon pleasure for MMA betting enthusiasts. While he couldn’t maintain the undefeated record, losses to Francis Ngannou, Ciryl Gane, and Alexander Volkov, all of whom are former champions and top-five-ranked heavyweights, bear no shame.

 

  • All 7 of Rozenstruik’s UFC wins are by knockout
  • Five of Rozenstruik’s 7 UFC wins finished in round one

Shamil Gaziev

From the preliminary card of UFC 296 to a Fight Night main event positioning, Shamil Gaziev has been fast-tracked to the heavyweight spotlight, and it’s easy to see why.

The Dagestan-born, former IMMAF champion has steamrolled all but one of his opponents since turning professional in 2020. A round one rear-naked choke on Dana White’s Contender Series caught the UFC’s eye, and after a vicious standing TKO in his promotional debut, it’s evident that Dana White and company have his superstar potential with a main event slot in just his second appearance.

 

  • Gaziev has finished 97% of his pro-MMA bouts via KO/TKO or submission.
  • Gaziev has fought beyond the second in just 1 of his 12 pro bouts.


 

Rozenstruik vs Gaziev: Tale of The Tape

Rozenstruik
Gaziev
Suriname
Country
Bahrain  
35
Age 
34
1-1
Pro Record (Win/Loss)
1-1
12 KOs, 0 Submissions 
KO/Sub/Dec
8 KOs, 3 Submissions
6’2” 
Height 
6’4” 
78.0”
Reach
78.0” 
7:39 
Avg Fight Time 
4:17
1.14
Knockdown Avg (15 min)
1.75
2.81
Avg Strikes Landed Per Min
6.19
0
Takedown Avg (15 min)
0
L/W/L/L/W
Win/Loss (Last 5)
W/W/W/W/W

 

UFC Vegas 87: Main Event Breakdown and Analysis

Rozenstruik fight style and how can Rozenstruik defeat Gaziev

Nothing changes for Rozenstruik. He’ll be working at American Top Team to fine-tune his takedown defense and get-up game, but regarding an in-cage game plan, the former kickboxer wants to strike and strike alone.

With relentless power, a refined and technical striking output, fluid movement, and excellent countering abilities moving backward or in stationary positions, he’s a problem in striking situations for most unranked heavyweights, and his game plan will be clear this weekend.

The Best path to victory for Rozenstruik: Technically out-strike Gaziev and find the kill shot.

Gaziev fight style and how can Gaziev defeat Rozenstruik

Gaziev undoubtedly enters this bout as the more well-rounded of the two, but as we’ve seen him fail to attempt takedowns in his previous two bouts, confidence in his striking ability would cost him dearly this weekend.

While he’s no slouch on the feet, he cannot match Rozenstruik in speed, power, or striking experience, and his decision-making this Saturday will reveal the fight IQ he owns. Should he decide to wrestle early and take this fight to the ground, he’ll give himself a significantly greater chance of victory.

The Best path to victory for Gaziev: Wrestle early and lock in a submission or ground and pound.

Rozenstruik vs Gaziev Prediction

UFC Vegas 87 Best Bet: Under 1 ½ Rounds

Rozenstruik is a huge step up in competition for Gaziev, and the moneyline juice on an untested fighter isn’t pretty – no matter how good they’ve looked on the regionals. “Bigi Boy” presents a knockout threat to a fighter who could have some false striking confidence from his most recent bouts; we’re unsure about Gaziev’s long-term gas tank, and for these reasons, the moneyline is a hostile wagering position to put ourselves in.

At the same time, Rozenstruik’s kryptonite has been defending takedowns and fighting back from the bottom position. While it’s an automatic underdog or pass situation regarding Las Vegas odds pricing, the over/under presents an alternative betting spot we can attack.

Whether it’s Rozenstruik or Gaziev walking out of Vegas victorious, we shouldn’t expect this fight to last long. Therefore, the under 1 ½ rounds at -170 is one of the lone trustworthy sportsbook values I see for this main event contest.

Two heavyweights who’ve regularly finished their fights are always prime for under-bettors, but the betting trends also support this outcome. Gaziev has gone the distance in just 1 of his 12 career bouts, and those 11 stoppages finished under 1.5, whereas Rozenstruik has seen under 1.5 in 6 of his previous 8 UFC bouts.

 

UFC Vegas 87 Main Event: The Crystal Ball Predictions

In this captivating heavyweight matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that Gaziev’s aggressiveness and confidence will collide with Rozenstruik’s elite counter-striking ability to end the fight via an early second-round knockout.

 

Potential Bets from a Rozenstruik Round 2 KO/TKO

1. Rozenstruik Moneyline [+125]
2. Under 1 ½ Rounds [-170]
3. Rozenstruik by KO/TKO [+130]
4. Rozenstruik Round 2 [+600]
5. Fight To Go The Distance/No [-1400]

 

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