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UFC Vegas 89 Betting Preview: Namajunas vs Ribas

In the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return to Sin City, women’s flyweight contenders will battle in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your UFC bets tonight.

The formidable, former two-time strawweight champ, ‘Thug’ Rose, will stand across the octagon from Amanda Ribas on Saturday night, and we’re expecting fireworks.

UFC Vegas 89 Betting Preview: Namajunas vs. Ribas
UFC Vegas 89 Betting Preview: Namajunas vs. Ribas

The stage is set, and the MMA betting lines are live, so let’s skip ahead to our deep dive of the UFC Vegas 89 main event.




UFC Vegas 89 Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, March. 23, 2024 – 07:00 p.m. ET
    • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
    • UFC Vegas 89 Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
    • Main Event Bout: Rose Namajunas vs Amanda Ribas
    • Co-Main Event Bout: Karl Williams vs Justin Tafa
  • Moneyline Probability: Namajunas – 68.8% (-220) Ribas – 35.7% (+180)


Namajunas vs Ribas Betting Odds


UFC Vegas 89: Fighter Previews

‘Thug’ Rose Namajunas

Following a decorated career as a former two-time divisional champion at 155 lbs, ‘Thug Rose’ made her flyweight debut in 2023 after more than twelve months on the sideline. She faltered in her efforts, as Manon Fiorot took a unanimous decision, thus putting the former champ on her first consecutive losing streak.

Many questions surround Namajunas’ mental state. She doesn’t embrace the bright lights or care for the fame that the UFC brings to the table. Her skill set has never been in question, and when her A-game is presented, she’s arguably the best women’s striker in the promotion. To date, she is notably the lone competitor to overcome the talents of the current strawweight queen, Weili Zhang. She’s the deserving UFC betting favorite for this match.



  • Namajunas is riding a two-fight losing streak
  • Namajunas is the only woman in history to defeat Weili Zhang
  • Namajunas has won 55% of her UFC bouts inside the distance


Amanda Ribas

Brazil’s Amanda Ribas is one of the most lovable personalities in professional mixed martial arts. However, don’t let her cute persona fool you because once she steps into the octagon, it’s all blood and violence.

With a 7-3 UFC record, she’s almost spent half of her UFC tenure bouncing between the strawweight and flyweight division. While this could be a testament to her professionalism, as she’s never missed weight in either weight class, it’s interesting to note that she’s lost two and won two at flyweight compared to a 5-1 record at 115 pounds.

This weekend, she returns to flyweight in an attempt to better her undesirable record in this division, but she’ll face her most difficult striking test to date in Rose Namajunas.



  • Ribas is 2-2 at flyweight but 5-1 at strawweight
  • Ribas has lost via KO/TKO on two occasions
  • Ribas has alternated wins and losses in her previous six UFC bouts


Namajunas vs Ribas: Tale of The Tape

Pro Record (Win/Loss)
2 KOs, 5 Submissions 
3 KOs, 4 Submissions
Avg Fight Time
Knockdown Avg (15 min)
Avg Strikes Landed Per Min
Takedown Avg (15 min)
Win/Loss (Last 5)


UFC Vegas 89: Main Event Breakdown & Analysis

The echo chamber in the MMA betting community can be fickle, but this weekend, I believe we’re all in unison, and it surrounds the sentiment that Rose Namajunas’ is one of the best in the world when her mental clarity is clear.

Rose came up as a renowned submission expert, locking in flying armbars, kimura’s, and a wealth of chokes during her Invicta and early UFC stint. However, we watched her evolve into title contention as one of the most technically sound strikers in women’s strawweight history.

Rose’s jab is mesmerizing, and she does an excellent job of baiting her opponents into positions where she can land clean offensive strikes. Her kick game is just as impressive, and her education in offensive striking is something to behold.

Ribas isn’t the most impressive striker, and her grappling isn’t likely strong enough to cause Rose many problems. However, the Brazilian does have a path to victory, and it ultimately relies on her opponent’s mental state. We’ve watched the former titleholder drift off during bouts, and should she forget her job this Saturday, Ribas’ aggressiveness and forward pressure can take over.

Namajunas vs Ribas Prediction:

UFC Vegas 89 Best Bet: Rose Namajunas by KO/TKO or Dec [-190]

Amanda Ribas is defensively exposed in the majority of her bouts, and this will be a huge concern versus Rose’s technical striking supremacy. Whether Namajunas can keep her head in the game for five rounds, I believe, won’t need to be answered because she’ll beat Ribas into a pulp before the championship rounds are required.

With her grappling abilities in her back pocket and a huge discrepancy in all facets of kickboxing, this weekend’s main event is truly Rose’s fight to lose. Although the mentality is a concern, when evaluating this bout skill-for-skill, there’s only one potential winner in my eyes… ‘Thug Rose, Thug Rose’!

Whenever I evaluate the odds for our UFC picks and parlays, I attempt to find the best betting value at the time of writing. It’s difficult to beat the CLV on occasions and Rose did open at -182, so I wouldn’t want us to lose 40+ in value in this situation. That said, backing the KO or decision prop is a viable alternative that brings us closer to that original ML line at the sportsbook.

UFC Vegas 89 Main Event Prediction: The Crystal Ball

In this women’s flyweight main event matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that the striking excellence of Rose will be too much for Ribas to handle. The Brazilian is tough, so she’ll survive the first round, but before the end of the second, the referee will be forced to intervene as Namajunas’ continuous and damaging strikes will leave him no choice but to call the fight.

Potential Best Bets for Namajunas vs Ribas:

  • Namajunas Moneyline [-220]
  • Under 4 ½ Rounds [-140]
  • Namajunas Win By KO [+110]
  • Namajunas Round 2 [+500]
  • Fight To Go The Distance/No [-175]


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