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UFC Vegas 89: Insider Prop Plays for Saturday’s MMA Fury

Another week of octagon brutality is upon us, and I’ve dove into the 13 scheduled bouts for UFC Vegas 89 to provide you with the most noteworthy MMA props and my UFC expert picks.

Las Vegas odds for UFC Fight Night are live; my tape study is complete, so let’s not waste any more time and jump into my perfect proposition bets for this weekend at the Apex.

UFC Vegas 89: Insider Prop Plays for Saturday's MMA Fury
Edmen Shahbazyan reacts after defeating Dalcha Lungiambula | Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

 

 

UFC Vegas 89 Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, March. 23, 2024 – 07:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
  • How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
  • Main Event Bout: Rose Namajunas vs. Amanda Ribas
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Karl Williams vs Justin Tafa
  • No.1 of Scheduled Fights: 13
  • Biggest UFC Vegas 89 Betting Favorite: Namajunas (-220)
  • Biggest UFC Vegas 89 Betting Underdog: Ribas (+180)

 

UFC Vegas 89 Odds

Dobson
Shahbazyan
+165
Moneyline
-200
O 2½ +105
Total
U 2½ -135

 

 

Edmen Shahbazyan vs AJ Dobson Prop Betting Preview

Not so long ago, a 21-year-old Edmen Shahbazyan was a bidding UFC prospect with the world at his feet. Unfortunately, his middleweight tenure quickly went from dominant to struggling, as the promotion threw him to the wolves at a young age.

As a result, Shahbazyan is now 5-4 under the UFC banner and has lost four of his previous five bouts, with three of those losses arriving via KO/TKO.

Perhaps AJ Dobson this weekend will give Edmen a chance to get back on track. That said, while AJ undoubtedly has a much lower level of competition than what Edmen has been used to of late, success is no guarantee when the octagon door closes.

UFC Vegas 89 Best Prop Bet #1: Under 2½ Rounds (-135)

The UFC betting odds are slightly juiced in favor of Shahbazyan regarding the moneyline, but if there’s one outcome we can often rely on in his bouts, it would be the expectation that it’s not going to the judges’ scorecards.

Just one of Shahbazyan’s pro career wins came via decision, while 75% of his career losses were by KO/TKO. With a questionable level of durability and a level of aggression that’s seen him collect a 90% finish rate, how can we overlook the -135 price on this bout ending in under two and a half rounds?

 

 

Under 2½ Rounds Supporting Trends:

  • Three of Shahbazyan’s four career losses were by KO/TKO
  • Shahbazyan has gone the distance in just 11 of his 12 pro career wins
  • AJ Dobson finished all but one of his regional scene opponents in under 2½ rounds

 

 

 

Luis Pajuelo vs Fernando Padilla Prop Betting Preview

Two featherweight prospects open this weekend’s main card as Luis Pajuelo meets Fernando Padilla. The former makes his promotional debut riding a five-fight win streak as the former returns from his first UFC defeat to Kyle Nelson.

How do we evaluate Padilla’s skill set and find confidence in the sportsbook? The man stormed through a veteran in Julian Erosa in his promotional debut to then get out-worked by Nelson last time out. Aged 27, we can make excuses for his last performance, but Pajuelo will deliver exactly what Nelson did, and that’s a kickboxing scrap for 15 minutes.

Size goes to Padilla, and he certainly holds a small advantage, having already fought under the bright lights of the UFC on two occasions. However, Nelson’s performance won’t leave my mind, and Pajuelo is a live dog, in my opinion.

UFC Vegas 89 Best Prop Bet #2: Fight To Go The Distance/Yes (+125)

Regarding my UFC betting picks, the plus-money available on this fight going the distance is tempting. I understand the glaringly obvious concerns, as both men have collected a combined 20 stoppage wins during their respective careers. However, they’re both tough as nails and have equally proven their ability to eat shots and continue without the worry of a KO/TKO surfacing.

As mentioned, we can expect a kickboxing contest in this contest, and Pajuelo is a live underdog. Anyone leaning this side has to favor this fight going all three rounds when considering Padilla’s durability and unbreakable chin, which have consistently been on display during his pro tenure.

 

 

Supporting Trends:

  • Padilla has never lost inside the distance
  • Pajuelo has never lost inside the distance

 

 

 

Our Favorite UFC Vegas 89 Proposition Wagers

 

 

The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.

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