UFC Vegas 97 Predictions: Best Bets for Burns vs. Brady 9/7/24

Following some brutal Fight Night headline matchmaking in 2024, we’re being gifted a pay-per-view-worthy bout this weekend when two of the welterweight divisions’ top-ranked competitors prepare to trade leather – or scrambles – inside our beloved octagon.

On that note, the UFC betting odds are live; I’ve completed my digging on these two studs, so let’s get straight into my complete breakdown of Burns vs. Brady, including some of the best UFC picks for avid bettors!

 

UFC Betting Fans: Bet $200 & Get a $450 Bonus on your first time deposit!

 

THE OCTAGON RETURNS ‼️

Can Gilbert Burns bounce back? or will Sean Brady move a step closer to avenging his only loss? 🤔 #UFCVegas97 #MMA #UFC pic.twitter.com/hwmvqzmEeM

— Against The Fence (@AgainstTheFenc3) September 2, 2024

UFC Vegas 97 Event Information

• Date & Time: Saturday, September 7, 2024 – 04:00 p.m. ET  
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
• Main Event Bout: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
• Co-Main Event Bout: Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva
• Moneyline Probability: Brady – 64.3% (-180) Burns – 40% (+150)

 

Burns vs Brady Odds and Moneyline 

 

UFC Vegas 97 Betting Preview – Burns vs Brady

Gilbert “Durinho” Burns: Snapping the Negative Streak     

Gilbert Burns has been a top-ranked UFC competitor for some time, yet he’s only just suffered his first two-fight losing streak in over a decade as a pro mixed martial artist. Said losing streak came against the current champion, Belal Muhammad, and a fellow top-ranked contender, Jack Della Maddalena.

These losses shouldn’t leave us doubting his potential, yet the reoccurring consensus is that Burns, aged 38, can no longer compete with the best. Funny, because he was beating the brakes off JDM before the third-round stoppage, he gave the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev the fight of his life, and his dominant performances over Jorge Masvidal, Neil Magny, and Stephen Thompson are still fresh in our minds.

He might not be competing in the prime years of his career, but doubting “Durinho” too soon could backfire for MMA betting fans, especially when his opponent, Sean Brady, only has one significant win worth mentioning (Kelvin Gastelum) from a five-year UFC tenure.

💥 Gilbert Burns was the first fighter to drop Kamaru Usman.

Hoping to see this version of Gilbert against Sean Brady. pic.twitter.com/JV8rvkMlCB

— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) August 31, 2024

Sean Brady: The Next Big Thing, Or the Next Big Flop?     

Sean Brady burst onto the UFC scene in 2019, and with an authoritative grappling style, this twenty-something product of Renzo Gracie Philly smashed through his opponents like they owed him something. Unfortunately, as he approached 30 and arguably his prime fighting years, he crossed paths with the new champion, Belal Muhammad.

Muhammad, known for his wrestling long game, recorded his first knockout win from a 24-fight career against Brady. Thus proving that when you remove the grappling upside, this fairly inexperienced welterweight still has much to learn in other facets of MMA.

No disrespect to Brady, but the hype behind his name isn’t backed up with credible wins. Overcoming Gastelum was impressive, but even then, he faced a version of Gastelum that had lost five of his previous seven fights.

Historically, Brady has thrived against fellow grapplers, but their credentials weren’t as high, and the striking threats have been minimal due to the matchmaking. And now, with arguably the best and most experienced grappler he’s faced to date in Burns, how will the BJJ black belt ace fair versus a fellow elite?

Sean Brady smothers Ben Saunders to set up the kimura

Cool pic.twitter.com/qVATNZmCH1

— William – Open Note Grappling 📝 (@OpenNoteGrapple) August 30, 2024

As always, remember to check the latest UFC news before placing your bets!

 

Burns vs. Brady: The Tale of The Tape  

Styles Make Fights: Grapple-Fest or Nah?      

The fact that Khamzat Chimaev – one of the UFC’s highest-level grapplers – didn’t want anything to do with Burns on the ground shows how intimidating and talented he is in this area of the fight game. But how much will grappling play a part in this upcoming main event now that we’re presented with two black belt-level jiu-jitsu artists?

We’re used to dissecting striker versus striker or wrestler versus striker, but it’s incredibly rare to witness two grapplers of this caliber go toe-to-toe, and typically, it wouldn’t be surprising if Burns and Brady canceled each other out, resulting in a striking exchange for the most of this five-round contest.

There’s no escape when 🔥@GilbertDurinho locks it up! 🔒

He returns this weekend as he takes on Sean Brady in #UFCVegas97‘s main event! pic.twitter.com/W3fWHC9GzR

— UFC_Asia (@UFC_Asia) September 2, 2024

The matchup itself is truly fascinating. Although I was critical of Brady previously in the article, you cannot deny his ability to create entries, force his opponents to the ground, and, more often than not, attack relentless submissions with a level of physicality that most cannot handle.

Anticipating a grapple-fest is expected, and predicting who finds more success is anyone’s guess. However, should this result in more kickboxing, Brady backers should have concerns for their man surviving the well-season Burns, who sure might throw some wild, swinging bombs but is still the more dangerous of the two in this regard.

Brady looked suspect in multiple striking exchanges even before the Muhammad knockout loss, and now he’s faced with a championship-caliber opponent with a significantly higher level of experience who can match him in the grappling realm and arguably have a much more favorable offensive striking game.

Sean Brady’s top half guard is phenomenal.

Heavy pressure, nonstop ground and pound, and (not shown in this clip) a constant submission threat.

Brady vs Gilbert is going to be a grapplers dream fight.#UFC pic.twitter.com/MRxPUeIQuG

— MMA Breakdownz (@MMAbreakdownz) September 1, 2024

Burns vs. Brady Betting Trends  

• Brady’s first UFC loss was a knockout defeat to Belal Muhammad
• Burns has lost two consecutive bouts and is winless since early 2023
• Burns has gone the distance in 50% of his UFC bouts

 

Burns vs. Brady: UFC Vegas 97 From a Betting Perspective  

Burns and Brady have the potential to deliver a fight-of-the-night performance, but this doesn’t mean we should blind bet the UFC Fight Night odds on either fighter. The red flags are waving on both sides, which forces me to look outside of a straight play on this bout.

Burns is 38, riding the first two-fight losing streak of his career, and although we haven’t had definitive proof, backing him isn’t viable at this stage. Then, Brady is untested against the 170lb elite; he has too many questions about his striking potential now that he’s facing an elite grappler; he’s also been pulled from six fights due to injury in the past four years, and although he’s seven years younger, inactivity could be a downside opposed to a fighter in Burns that competes regularly.

Instead, backing durability and the potential of grappling stalemate leads me to over 3 ½ rounds. The price of -200 isn’t great, but it’s indicative of how BetUS Sportsbook believes Burns and Brady could be in the cage for a while. Early knockout losses aren’t commonplace for either man, but going the distance is.

Brady has gone the distance in 50% of his pro career bouts, and Burns has done the same in 5 of his last 7 UFC contests. Two elite grapplers hold great potential to drain the clock, and while punching power is present for Burns, neither man has presented an alarming knockout threat during their respective careers.

 

Bet This Pick: Burns vs Brady Over 3 ½ Rounds (-200)

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

 

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