UFC Vegas 104 Parlay Picks: Bet on Vettori vs Dolidze to Go the Distance on March 15

· Mar 14 - 7 minutes read

Bet on Vettori vs Dolidze to go the distance (-200)
Add Musasa vs Vera over 1.5 rounds (-160)
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We’re still on a comedown from UFC 313, but there’s no rest for the wicked regarding UFC betting, as Dana White and Co. are heading straight back to Vegas with a fight night event worthy of our handicapping attention.

UFC Vegas 104 Parlay Picks: Bet on Vettori vs Dolidze to Go the Distance on March 15 — Marvin Vettori | Christian Petersen/ Getty Images via AFP

UFC Vegas 104 might not be the prettiest card on paper, but there are undeniably a few sleepers that deserve our attention. More to the point, as your BetUS MMA expert, I’m back with my top UFC parlay picks that will guide you to bankroll profits this weekend!

What Bruce Buffer said!

Their first meeting was a BATTLE ⚔️@MarvinVettori & @RomanDolidzeUFC run it back SATURDAY in the #UFCVegas104 main event! pic.twitter.com/2mmnpABpLp

— UFC (@ufc) March 13, 2025

UFC Vegas 104 How to Watch

Date & Time: Saturday, March. 15, 2025 – 04:00 p.m. ET
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
Scheduled Fights: 13
Main Event Bout: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze 2
Co-Main Event Bout: Elizeu Zaleski vs. Chidi Njokuani

Get UFC expert picks for all fights here.

UFC Vegas 104 Prediction and 2 Best Parlay Picks

1. Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze 2

Marvin ‘The Italian Dream’ Vettori… the man’s been absent from UFC news for a minute, but let’s not forget his position as a middleweight competitor, shall we? The majority of his UFC career, which dates back to 2018, has been spent fighting the best at 185 lbs, and although injuries have plagued him since 2023 to keep him sidelined, aged 31, it wouldn’t be surprising if he has a lot more to offer on the big stage.

Then we have Georgia’s Roman Dolidze. While he has not yet reached the heights of his fellow countrymen Ilia Topuria and Merab Dvalishvili, we cannot deny his slow rise through the rankings. Back-to-back successes over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland saw him halt a two-fight losing skid, but more interestingly, he’s aiming for redemption this weekend, as one of those defeats was against Vettori back in March 2023.

So, we have a rematch two years in the making that nobody really asked for, and I’ve already given my complete breakdown and winner prediction for Vettori vs. Dolidze 2, so you might be thinking, ‘What gives’?

Well, it’s quite simple: the best value I see on this weekend’s main event doesn’t involve a winner; it focuses on the durability of two fighters who have never lost a pro-MMA bout by knockout or submission!

Bet This Pick: Vettori vs Dolidze – Fight Goes the Distance (-200)

Marvin Vettori reveals where he’s been following a near two-year layoff from the sport.

“I’ve been in Miami. Big booty Latinas, you know.”#UFCVegas104 pic.twitter.com/b3NNfslxSh

— Verdict (@VerdictMMA) March 12, 2025

Durability Wins

For a skillset breakdown and outright winner prediction, you can read the article I mentioned above. However, if you’re looking for a parlay pick that I believe has a much higher probability of cashing than most other outcomes on this card, stay tuned.

We don’t need to get complicated with UFC future or UFC prop bets because this outcome is clear as day. With Vettori owning a head made of bricks and Dolidze having the ability to eat shots like breakfast, in addition to both men being equipped in the BJJ department, I envision Saturday’s rematch emulating the outcome of the first fight: it’s going the distance!

I know; there’s a first time for everything. However, much like death and taxes, Vettori’s lack of finishing ability combined with that massive head taking this fight to the judges’ scorecards is guaranteed.

Fight to Go the Distance Supporting Betting Trends:

In 26 pro-MMA bouts, Vettori has never lost inside the distance
6 of Dolidze’s 11 UFC bouts went the distance
Dolidze has never lost by KO/TKO or submission
Vettori has gone the distance in 12 of his 14 UFC bouts

Both @MarvinVettori and @RomanDolidzeUFC have NEVER BEEN FINISHED 🤯

Will that change this weekend at #UFCVegas104?
[ B2YB by the UFC Insights Engine built by IBM watsonx ] pic.twitter.com/Xdfg0FImTH
— UFC (@ufc) March 13, 2025

2. Josias Musasa vs Carlos Vera

Josias Musasa (8-0-0) is nicknamed ‘The K.O. Wizard,” so, of course he’s going to win by knockout, right? While this outcome is his most viable path to victory, we have to look at his short career in detail, and I don’t believe an early stoppage versus an experienced Carlos Vera (11-4-0) is as likely as some believe.

Now, the -1000 UFC odds on Musasa is ridiculous, especially for a UFC debutant whose only knockout wins have come from the African MMA regional scene. Then we look at his Dana White’s Contender Series win, which saw him go the distance in his first fight outside of Africa.

Vera is a dangerous jiu-jitsu who isn’t lost in striking exchanges. However, you can only imagine that he’ll want to slow this fight down via grappling, and with that in mind, approaching the totals betting market is supported heavily.

Bet This Pick: Musasa vs Vera Over 1.5 Rounds (-160)

This one went to the judges 👊

Josias Musasa earns the split decision!
[ #DWCS live NOW on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/f12eO1ueVk
— UFC (@ufc) September 11, 2024

Bet the Over

Don’t get me wrong, Vera is no world beater, and Musasa is the rightful favorite. In addition, I do believe the D.R. Congo native can finish his Ecuadorian foe this weekend. That said, with a grappling threat to fend, much like his DWCS bout, I envision a calm and patient Musasa fending the guard-pulls or takedown attempts early, and this will drain the clock.

Once we reach late round two, the 37-year-old Vera will eventually falter to the more athletic and dangerous striker, but as there’s zero value on Musasa’s side, while the over 1 ½ rounds at a respected -160 feels like a sleeper piece of value that’s perfect to cap off our parlay! It’s also worth noting that Vera has never been knocked out during his pro career, and defensively, he isn’t bad at all, so even a Musasa win by decision or submission loss wouldn’t surprise me.