Edwards Is Being Slept On in the UFC Odds
It’s not often we see Leon Edwards as a sizable underdog. But here is taking on the UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman, who many also see as the pound-for-pound best fighter. But as dominant as Usman has been, Edwards has been on a roll and is a lot better than the UFC odds are giving him credit for.
Usman Is a Wrestler, Don’t Get It Twisted
It’s phenomenal that Usman has evolved into becoming one of the best strikers in his division. In his core, Usman is a wrestler. That’s how he’s won most of his UFC fights. But fans will mostly remember him for dusting Jorge Masvidal and breaking Colby Covington’s jaw.
Usman has always been a powerful puncher. But under Trevor Wittman and Henry Hooft, Usman has polished his striking and can now hang with the best. The Nigerian lands over 4.6 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.6 in return.
Against Edwards, however, Usman is facing the most advanced striker. This isn’t Covington or Gilbert Burns. Usman can always turn to his wrestling, which he has used successfully against Edwards. The best UFC bet is for Usman to neutralize his British rival and win via a decision. Let’s get to it and Bet on UFC now!
Edwards Gets No Respect
It’s utter disrespect to Edwards that he is a 3-1 underdog against Usman. He’s the biggest underdog to fight Usman since Demian Maia back in 2018. But Edwards is the best striker Usman will fight. Even if “Rocky” is technical at the expense of being entertaining, he has a clearer path to victory here than those before him.
If Edwards can defend Usman’s takedowns well enough, he can keep the fight standing and outstrike Usman. The champion took him down at will in their first fight — six times over 15 minutes. By the third round, Usman was blanketing Edwards.
Edwards has since shored up his takedown defense. He defends over 70% of takedown attempts. He kept Belal Muhammad, who has been mauling opponents lately, at bay.
Usman vs Edwards 2 Head-to-Head
Edwards is the bigger man of the two although Usman will have a two-inch reach advantage. Usman is also already 35 while Edwards is turning 31. Both have nearly the same amount of professional experience with Usman at 21 fights and Edwards at 23.
Usman vs Edwards 2 Fight Information
- Fighters: Usman (c) (20-1-0) vs Edwards (19-3-0)
- Location: Vivint Arena
- Day/Time: Saturday August 20th, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Usmas vs Edwards 2: UFC Fight Pass
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Usman vs Edwards 2 Betting Lines
| Team | Handicap | Moneyline | Total | Team Total |
| Leon Edwards | +300 | 4½-155o | ||
| Kamaru Usman | -400 | 4½+125u |
Usman vs Edwards 2 Prediction
At the current online sports betting line, our money is on Edwards to pull off this upset. From a picks perspective, we still like Usman. We correctly picked him against Covington in the rematch but that fight was a lot closer than the final scorecards indicated. Edwards is a much better striker and tactician than Covington.
This comes down to how well Edwards can fend off Usman’s takedown attempts. Usman has a takedown accuracy of 49 percent and he averages three takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s outgrappled the likes of Masvidal and Tyron Woodley. But Edwards moves more fluidly than the two and he can control distance more effectively.
Usman should still walk away in this one. But this will be a much closer fight than the odds indicate and it’s worth betting on Edwards.
