We have four fights for the prelims, including Mason Jones vs David Onama, Jamie Pickett vs Laureano Staropoli and Khama Worthy vs Jai Herbert.
Rodrigues vs Park
Bookmakers have this fight at -115 a piece, and there is excellent value with Rodrigues.
The 10-3 fighter had the significant reach advantage and his win over Dusko Todorovic was a solid first-up effort in the UFC.
“Robocop” is now on a three-fight winning streak after beating Josh Fremd and Al Matavao in the LFA organization. His only loss in the last 10 fights came in Dana White’s Contender Series to Jordan Williams, so he deserves another chance.
“I have all the tools I need to be a great fighter.”
— UFC News (@UFCNews) October 20, 2021
Park is 13-4 after beating Tafon Nchukwi, but he needs to improve to rise up the middleweight ranks. He struggles to put fighters away, and Rodrigues could outmuscle him on Saturday.
Our UFC best bets have Rodrigues anchoring the prelim parlay.
Pick: Gregory Rodrigues -115
Jones vs Onama
Jones is the raging-hot favorite at -450 to beat Onama, and we can’t disagree with bookmakers.
The 10-1 Jones comes off a no-contest against Alan Patrick in June, and although it followed his first career loss to Mike Davis, the level of opposition has been strong.
Onama is a relatively unknown Ugandan fighter who makes his UFC debut. He is coached by James Krause, and fighting Jones on short notice is a tough introduction to the company.
The 27-year-old has seven finishes from eight fights, but he has been facing much easier opponents than Jones, hence the price difference in betting markets.
It’s not easy to back a -450 fighter against an unbeaten opponent, but class is with Jones, who should secure the victory.
“I’m ready for any style, I was prepared for a wrestler, I’ll have a striker,” Jones told BBC.com. “I think he’s a credible threat but I think I’m better everywhere.
“Every fight I do will be a highlight reel and in Cage Warriors they were always the best fights on the card.”
Pick: Mason Jones -450
Pickett vs Staropoli
He might be riding a losing streak after getting knocked out in the first round against Jordan Wright, but there is value with Pickett.
The 11-6 fighter is paying +190 with the sportsbook, and he’s a much better fighter than what we saw at UFC 262. Dropping in class should help his chances, and Staropoli has a significant reach disadvantage.
The 28-year-old comes off decision losses to Roman Dolidze and Tim Means. Those weren’t easy fights, so he will also enjoy an easier fight. However, we wouldn’t price him at -240.
There is much better value with Pickett, who stands taller, has the reach advantage, and is keen to find his best form in the Octagon.
Pick: Jamie Pickett +190
Worthy vs Herbert
Khama Worthy hasn’t been the easiest guy in the UFC to follow, but bettors should respect the experienced fighter.
He comes off consecutive losses to Ottman Azaitar and Jamie Mullarkey, who were both first-round knockouts. However, if he can survive the first round, fighters like Luis Pena know how dangerous he is.
— IridiumSportsAgency (@TeamIridiumISA) October 19, 2021
Worthy scored a third-round submission win over Pena last year, so that’s his best form guide against Herbert, who was submitted by Renato Moicano in June.
Moicano is a tough opponent, so we’re not surprised he lost. However, he was knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo in his previous fight, so he’s not fighting well.
Value is with Worthy, who is paying a generous +150.