Vettori vs Dolidze Prediction, Picks and UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Bet on Decision Win for March 15

It might lack the hype and anticipation of last week’s UFC 313 pay-per-view, but Dana White and Co. return to our screens this weekend, inside the trusty Apex, to deliver a middleweight main event involving two old rivals.

Two years after they first met at UFC 286, Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze will revisit their rivalry. Only this time, it’ll be five rounds inside the smaller octagon, with a main event spotlight shining on their performance.

With another intriguing 185lb battle just days away, I’m back to deliver my UFC expert picks and share my Fight Night analysis to help you bet on UFC this weekend.

Let’s get it!

All roads lead to Saturday! 👊

It all goes down THIS SATURDAY at #UFC104!

Who you got?! pic.twitter.com/guav3lw0kb

— UFC (@ufc) March 10, 2025

UFC Vegas 104 How to Watch

• Date/Time: Saturday, March. 15, 2025 – 04:00 p.m. ET
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
• UFC 104 Vegas Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze 2
• Co-Main Event Bout: Elizeu Zaleski vs Chidi Njokuani
• Moneyline Probability: Vettori – 60.8% (-155) Dolidze – 43.5% (+130)

Vettori vs Dolidze Betting Preview

Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori

From a middleweight title shot versus Israel Adesanya to fighting the best of the best like Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Jared Cannonier. And then, *poof,* top-ranked 185lb contender Marvin Vettori disappeared from regular scheduling, but where has he been?

If you ask Vettori, he’ll tell you “Miami, so many big booty Latinas.” We appreciate the humor, and he isn’t lying, is he? But in all seriousness, shoulder injuries forced him to have major surgery, as the 31-year-old has now spent just under two years on the sidelines.

Prior to his absence, Vettori suffered a unanimous decision loss to Cannonier. However, given what we know now, dealing with multiple injuries in his arm (rotator cuff, labrum, and bicep) is a great excuse for faltering. He’s switched from Xtreme Couture to American Top Team, and with an opponent he’s familiar with lined up, ‘The Italian Dream’ might just be primed to return to the win column!

Bringing that dominant ground game into Saturday night 💪@MarvinVettori returns to the Octagon at #UFCVegas104! pic.twitter.com/qL7EhG0UMp

— UFC (@ufc) March 13, 2025

Roman “The Caucasian” Dolidze

In contrast to his weekend foe, Roman Dolidze has flipped his fortunes around since the first fight. The Georgian brute has cemented his position as a top-ranked middleweight, and although he suffered defeat to Nassourdine Imavov, which bears zero shame, he’s collected back-to-back wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland.

The question is: How much can UFC betting fans really value those successes? He moved to 205 lbs and defeated a washed-up version of Smith before winning a fight with Holland by default due to a mid-fight injury. Would Dolidze have succeeded later if the injury hadn’t occurred? We cannot answer those questions, but at the very least, snapping his losing streak will be a confidence booster heading into Vegas this weekend.

With so much inspiration from his fellow natives, Ilia Topuria and Merab Dvalishvili, could Dolidze be the third Georgian to challenge for middleweight gold? Or does this old rival place a stumbling block in front of his aspirations?

Bringing POWER to the main event 😤@RomanDolidzeUFC looks to break into the Top 10 after #UFCVegas104! pic.twitter.com/u3fx3njaWX

— UFC (@ufc) March 12, 2025

Vettori vs Dolidze: The Tale of The Tape

Make sure to check the latest UFC news here.

Inside the Octagon: Vettori vs Dolidze Skillset Breakdown

Is Vettori’s Layoff a Concern?

Whenever a professional mixed martial artist returns from a lengthy layoff, we must question their recovery and whether they’ll return as the same fighter they once were. For Vettori, this is my lone concern heading into Saturday’s main event because skill-for-skill, I believe he’s got Dolidze covered in all areas.

Considering he’s just 31 years old and has evidently taken the correct amount of time off to heal up, I don’t see as many red flags around his return as we may have with an older fighter. Then we look at one of Vettori’s greatest assets. He’s known as an absolute workhorse in the gym, has six fights where he’s collected five-round experience, and his durability is second to none, having never been stopped inside the distance throughout his 26 pro-career bouts.

Vettori’s takedown defense is solid and even if he were taken down, he’s no slouch in scrabling situations with a respected BJJ game at his beck and call. In the striking realm, he’s a volume puncher, should be lighter on his feet in this contest, and, much like the first fight, I can see him running away with winning rounds based on the striking numbers alone. This makes him a good MMA pick for the fight.

The Italian Dream is BACK! 🇮🇹

Watch @MarvinVettori in the #UFCVegas104 main event THIS WEEKEND! pic.twitter.com/uuuEStG8ay

— UFC (@ufc) March 10, 2025

Can Dolidze Deliver for Five Rounds?

Despite being 36, Dolidze is ageing well and will be riding high on consecutive wins while his opponent hasn’t been actively competing. Here’s my problem: some of his most impressive work has been on the ground, where many Georgian fighters thrive, but this won’t be an option versus Vettori. Then I look at his five-round, twenty-five minute experience, which starts and stops with Imavov. He didn’t look gassed, but oddly, we’ve seen him look more lethargic in three-round contests, and I have a funny feeling this was due to the wrestling offense he attempted.

I don’t envision Dolidze wanting to stand and bang for 25 minutes, and I expect him to attempt more takedowns this time. When those continuously fail, that gas tank we previously had concerns about will begin to show. Vettori, with his unbreakable chin, will take all the winning power shots the Georgian can deliver on the feet while simultaneously leading this fight through volume striking.

Bringing the POWER! 😤@RomanDolidzeUFC looks to add another highlight in the #UFCVegas104 main event! pic.twitter.com/Sp6yhVMTvw

— UFC (@ufc) March 11, 2025

Vettori vs Dolidze Betting Trends

Here are some UFC betting trends to consider before hitting the sportsbook:

• Vettori defeated Dolidze by unanimous decision in 2023
• 12 of Vettori’s 15 UFC bouts went the distance
• Dolidze has never defeated a top-10-ranked UFC middleweight
• 5 of Vettori’s last 6 UFC bouts were against top-5-ranked middleweights

Vettori vs Dolidze Prediction and Best Bet

Do I like the current -150 UFC betting odds on Vettori? I do! In fact, we’re getting a better price than we did from the first fight on a man that won! It’s a surprising take from oddsmakers, but what’s better than the moneyline? How about these UFC props bets, where Vettori’s price can be boosted to +110 when backing him to win by decision?

If there’s one guarantee with The Italian Dream, it’s that he isn’t finishing a well-seasoned opponent inside the distance. He’s a decision machine with ridiculous durability, and should he walk out of the Apex as the victor, there’s a high likelihood that it’ll be via the judge’s scorecards.

Bet This Pick: Marvin Vettori Wins By Decision (+110)

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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