Volkanovski vs Lopes UFC 314 Picks, Odds and Predictions for April 12

For once, we aren’t focusing on Miami, Florida, for its plethora of beach babes stunting their scantily clad bikinis. Instead, all eyes will be on The Magic City because we want to see grown men fight in their underwear… go figure.

It is what it is, and with UFC 314 showcasing a slew of elite-level fights at the Kaseya Center this weekend, we’re preparing for sea, sun, sand, and a lot of octagon violence!

While the UFC 314 schedule is jam-packed with banger after banger, none is more important than the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes, who’ll compete for Ilia Topuria’s vacated featherweight championship.

Anyway, enough of the blabbering… You’re here for the breakdown, and as the BetUS resident MMA expert, I’ve dissected Volk vs. Lopes, with the addition of my UFC best bets tonight and odds for this epic main event!

It’s time!!!

Volkanovski vs Lopes Betting Preview

Is Volkanovski’s Chin a Liability?

There is no disputing Volkanovski’s skill level; this man is a master of footwork and striking, with the ability to zone in on the best available range and opponent’s weaknesses to then outwork them with a varied shot selection, and on occasions, a little wrestling for good measure. His decision-making and fight intelligence are second to none, and when it comes to high-profile, five-round fights, he’s been around the block and collected every t-shirt.

With that said, there’s a huge concern around his age, 36, and the recent knockout losses he’s suffered. First, Makhachev head-kick KO’d him, and then, after a return from lightweight to featherweight, Topuria laid him out inside two rounds. This coupling of knockout losses displayed unusual sights, as we hadn’t been accustomed to experiencing a questionable chin from Volk.

However, with an extended layoff and what could be argued as a drop in competition, are we just banking on Lopes to utilize the power he’s known for and hand Volk a third straight knockout when betting on UFC?

Volk knows how to win. He seems to be in the best shape of his career, and when it comes to avoiding the firefight with Lopes, based on past performances, he only needs to achieve this in the early rounds. When this fight extends, the five-round cardio of Volk will be superior, and I’m sorry for Lopes’ believers. Still, I simply cannot back a fighter whose primary path to victory lies behind a stoppage win, especially after he failed to finish Ortega and Ige in his previous two outings.

In honor of Volkanovski fight week, heres the faces of Volks’ last 6 opponents post fighting him 👀🩸🇦🇺 #UFC314 pic.twitter.com/gyI27DQBpJ

— 🇮🇪𝕮𝕬𝕭𝕽𝕬🇨🇦 (@CABRA8844) April 7, 2025

Lopes Struggles

The jiu-jitsu of Lopes is always a factor; his knockout power is clear, but when it comes to every other facet in mixed martial arts, he’s really up against it.

Volkanovski will have the wrestling and technical striking advantage, especially from kicking range. Across five rounds, Makhachev has been the only competitor able to handle the former champ’s nonstop cardio.

So, we have a smarter, more technical fighter, with proven five-round experience versus the hype of Lopes, that’s predominantly centered around his knockout power and a maybe on Volkanovski’s durability. Getting knocked out by Makhachev and Topuria is something I refuse to use as ammunition for making predictions, and without that, Volkanovski is clearly the more well-rounded and skilful fighter of the two.

DIEGO LOPES JUST DROPPED BRIAN ORTEGA 😱

[ #UFC306 at @RiyadhSeason #NocheUFC live RIGHT NOW on @ESPNPlus PPV ] pic.twitter.com/0N8tHWW2VH

— UFC (@ufc) September 15, 2024

Volkanovski vs Lopes: UFC 314 Best Bet

We know Volkanovski can out-wrestle Lopes, out-cardio, and out-kick him. He has the superior fight IQ; he won’t be baited into a slugfest. Without an early knockout for Lopes (which is possible), the Aussie fan favorite will technically piece the lesser-experienced man apart. In a battle of endurance in a fight I expect to go long, there’s only one option for our UFC predictions.

Money continues coming in on Lopes, and we’re looking at -125 UFC betting odds on the former pound-for-pound No.1—insane odds, if you ask me. Lopes might be Brazilian, but he isn’t Poatan. He’s far too inexperienced to just walk through Volk without some serious kickback, thus making the slight moneyline one of my best UFC picks for UFC 314, and we’ll boost our odds with the KO/Dec double chance prop because BJJ and ‘The Great’ don’t go together.

Bet This Pick: Volkanovski by KO/TKO or Decision (-110)

How to Watch UFC 314

• Date and Time:Saturday, April. 12, 2025 – 06:00 p.m. ET
• Location:Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida, USA
• How to Watch:UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout:Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
• Co-Main Event Bout:Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
• Moneyline Probability:Volkanovski – 55.6% (-125) Lopes – 48.8% (+105)

Get UFC odds for the fight card here.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.