Bettors get excellent value on the main card at UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs Rodriguez, including in the co-main event between Michelle Waterson and Amanda Lemos.
Waterson vs Lemos
Most of the early betting moves have come for Lemos, who is 11-2-1 following a first-round submission loss to Jessica Andrade.
The Brazilian looked better when beating Angela Hill, but Hill is only a 13-12 fighter and she hasn’t been facing much in the way of opposition.
Waterson is 18-9 and the despised outsider at +250, but we think that’s excellent value for the 36-year-old, who is always a threat.
The Karate Hottie’s best days might be behind her but that doesn’t mean that she can’t handle Lemos, who is no spring chicken at 35.
We’ll take the value odds with the sportsbook in the co-main event.
Pick: Waterson +250
Li vs Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov hasn’t lost in the UFC since making his organization debut in 2017, so he’s riding a long winning streak.
The Russian improved his record to 18-2 with a win over Francisco Trinaldo in 2021 and he could make his 2022 debut with a bang.
The -165 favorite has to get past a tricky Jingliang Li, who is looking to bounce back from a loss to Khamzat Chimaev. However, prior to the loss, heLi looked much better when knocking out Santiago Ponzinibbio, so he has the power to end the fight early.
UFC odds have Li at +135, which is a fair price for the Chinese fighter. However, Salikhov has a big grappling advantage and he could look to get the fight to the ground before Li can do any damage on his feet.
Pick: Salikhov -165
Schnell vs Mudarji
Su Mudarji is another firm favorite on the UFC Fight Night card and he’s -280 to beat Matthew Schnell.
The Chinese fighter comes off a three-round decision victory and he has also sent decent fighters to the canvas. He knocked out Malcolm Gordon in the first round in 2020, so he has power in his hands.
Schnell has the reach disadvantage and he didn’t look good when being submitted by Brandon Royval at UFC 274. However, it was a tough fight and he has a good submission game.
A lack of recent fighting isn’t ideal for Schnell, which is why we’re leaning toward Mudarji. He can stand with most fighters and Schnell could have trouble getting him to the ground.
It could pay to follow the money moves with this fight.
Pick: Mudarji -280
Take a Look at Other 2 Articles for This Week’s UFC Upcoming Events
- UFC: Underdogs Roll For ABC 3 Prelims, July 16
- Ortega vs Rodriguez Predictions, Fight Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks, July 16
Burgos vs Jourdain
Shane Burgos has a big reach advantage and that’s why he’s the -175 betting online favorite to beat Charles Jourdain.
The 31-year-old rebounded from a loss to Edson Barboza with a win at UFC 268 and he looks ready to make a comeback in 2022.
He fights in front of home fans in Long Island and that could have a big impact on the fight.
“It’s way less stressful, I feel like I’ve had my best performances in New York,” Burgos told Newsday. “Because I’m so laid back on fight week.”
He is respectful of Jourdain, who likes to come out swinging and end the fight early.
“He’s definitely up there (with my most violent opponents),” Burgos said. “He reminds me of a younger Cub Swanson. That’s the vibe I get right there.”
Bettors have to respect +145 underdog Jourdain, but given the circumstances of this fight, we’re going with Burgos.
Pick: Burgos -175
Murphy vs Tate
It’s good to see Tate back in the Octagon following a loss to Ketlen Vieira in November.
The former champion is attempting to make another run and she has to get through Murphy, who is 15-5 following a knockout loss to Valentina Shevchenko.
She’ll find this fight easier but not by much. Tate is devastating when she’s on her game, and although we expect a close fight, Tate should win on points.
Pick: Tate -210