Heading into the final day of the regular season, the eight teams in the WNBA playoffs had already been determined. However, the WNBA predictions could be impacted as the seedings had to be finalized.
When it comes to making WNBA picks, the closest game in the series openers is Dallas favored by 6½ against Atlanta. Connecticut and New York are both 9½-point favorites versus Minnesota and Washington, respectively, while the defending champion Las Vegas Aces are a 16-point favorite against Chicago.
The playoffs begin on Wednesday when Minnesota plays at Connecticut (7:30 p.m., ESPN2) followed by the Chicago-Las Vegas series opener (10 p.m., ESPN). The Washington-New York and Atlanta-Dallas series begin on Friday.
All four first-round series are now best-of-three formats with the higher seed hosting the first two games.
The favorites were just 2-4 against the spread (ATS) on Sunday – the final day of the regular season. Is that a sign of things to come?
This is the first time since 2003 that both Phoenix and Seattle missed the playoffs during the same season. Indiana and Los Angeles also missed the playoffs.
When looking at our WNBA lines, the Aces (-160) and New York Liberty (+130) have the best odds to win the WNBA title while A’ja Wilson of the Aces and New York’s Breanna Stewart are running almost neck-and-neck in the MVP race.
Sun, Sky Top ATS Bracket
Since this is a betting site, what better time is there to see how the WNBA playoff field looked if it was determined by how the teams fared against the WNBA betting lines.
When looking at the WNBA predictions, Connecticut and Chicago would have finished tied for the top spot with 22-17-1 records. Connecticut was 3-1 against the spread in the four matchups with the Sky so that would give the Sun the No. 1 overall seed.
Minnesota would have earned the No. 3 seed at 21-18-1 with Dallas, Las Vegas and Los Angeles (which just missed making the playoffs) tied for fourth. Dallas and Las Vegas went 21-19 and Los Angeles finished 20-18-2.
Las Vegas would earn the No. 4 seed thanks to covering in five of the eight games against the Sparks and Wings this season. With Los Angeles going 3-1 ATS versus Dallas, the Sparks would earn the fifth seed and would play against the Aces in the first round while Dallas headed to Minnesota in the 3-6 series.
Indiana, New York and Seattle all finished at .500 against the spread. However, only two of them could make the postseason.
Seattle would have earned the No. 7 seed with a 5-2-1 record against the spread versus New York and Indiana. The Liberty covered in all four games against Indiana and that would give New York the eighth seed.
Living the Dream
The WNBA playoff field has been finalized and six of the eight teams with the best odds to win the WNBA title coming into the season are among the eight teams going after the 2023 title.
According to the WNBA predictions, the team with the longest odds to make the playoffs is the Atlanta Dream at +4000 while the Phoenix Mercury (+1800) and the Seattle Storm (+3500) are the teams with the best odds that fell short of being among the postseason field.
The WNBA odds were spot on when it came to the top two teams as the star-studded Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty teams came in at +110 and +140 in the championship odds.
Betting Look at Playoff Matchups
Las Vegas swept all four games against Chicago during the regular season. However, the Sky did cover in each of the last three matchups as Chicago was listed as the 13½-, 14½- and 14½ -point underdogs in those games.
The last three games between the teams finished over the total.
No. 2 seed New York and No. 7 seed Washington split the four regular-season meetings with Washington covering in all four meetings. The final three matchups went over the total.
Connecticut, seeded third, won three of the four games against Minnesota. The Lynx did cover ATS in three of the matches.
In the 4-5 matchup, Dallas not only won all four games versus Atlanta, the Wings covered each time with three of those games landing under the total.
The race for the WNBA regular-season Most Valuable Player figures to come down to either A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces and Breanna Stewart of the New York Liberty.
Wilson finished third in the league in scoring (22.8 points per game) and second in rebounding (9.5).
Stewart was second in scoring (23.0) and third in rebounding (9.3).
It will be worth watching to see how many votes Connecticut’s Alyssa Thomas or other candidates receive.
As for the individual leaders, Seattle’s Jewell Loyd finished as the scoring champion with an average of 24.7 points per game while Thomas was the leader in rebounding (9.9) and finished just behind New York’s Courtney Vandersloot in assists.
There should be no such drama when it comes to the Rookie of the Year race with Indiana’s Aliyah Boston likely to win the award in overwhelming fashion.
In the regular-season finale, Chicago played without Kahleah Copper (toe). Isabelle Harrison (knee) and Rebekah Gardner (knee). Harrison and Gardner won’t play in the playoffs.
Connecticut will be without forward Brionna Jones, who was limited to 13 games this season.
Minnesota’s Jessica Shepard (ankle) and Lindsey Allen (thumb) are questionable.
Washington’s Shakira Austin (hip) is questionable while guard Kristi Toliver is out with a torn ACL.
Candace Parker hasn’t played since July 7 for Las Vegas.