Season Finale Features David vs Goliath Matchup
Following a rest week, the XFL will cap its season with the championship game between the Arlington Renegades (5-6) and D.C. Defenders (10-1) on Saturday. This one’s for all of the marbles. Who will win the second XFL championship?
The sportsbook has the Defenders as heavy favorites (-6½). However, the Renegades are a dangerous underdog after pulling off the shocking 26-11 win against the Houston Roughnecks in the semifinals. Arlington is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last four games and nearly took down D.C. in a 28-26 overtime loss in Week 9. Will the Renegades complete their improbable run, or will the Defenders finish their dominant season with a title?
Renegades Look to Cap Storybook Ending
This has been a run to remember for Arlington. It was up-and-down for most of the season and sneaked into the playoffs. If the XFL did not pick its teams based on division, the Renegades would not be here. Their 4-6 regular-season finish was far worse than the 7-3 St. Louis Battlehawks.
Few XFL picks expected Arlington to do much in the postseason. It did feature one of the league’s top defenses for most of the season and quarterback Luis Perez was making a huge impact after being acquired via trade. However, no one expected this. How did the Renegades pull it off?
Perez dominated against the Roughnecks with 289 passing yards and three touchdowns. Most importantly, he avoided turnovers, which was a problem early in the season with the Vegas Vipers.
FIRST TD 🤩😤 pic.twitter.com/eZbji4WlqO
— Arlington Renegades (@XFLRenegades) April 29, 2023
Arlington needs another strong performance from its defense. The Defenders lead the league in points per game at 29.8. They also have the XFL’s top rushing attack. It will be strength against strength, as the Renegades feature the top-run defense. According to Las Vegas XFL odds, Arlington is +220 to win outright.
Will D.C. Finish What It Started?
The Defenders looked vulnerable in the final three weeks of the regular season. They managed to win each game but by an average margin of 1.3 points. The defense was struggling, allowing 29 points during the three-game span.
D.C. finished the regular season 9-1, but negative XFL news swirled around the team due to recent struggles. It returned to its dominance in the semifinals with a 37-21 win over the Seattle Sea Dragons. The Defenders blew the game open early in the fourth quarter, taking a 29-9 lead. This forced Seattle to throw often, finishing with only 15 rushing yards. In Week 8, D.C. allowed 33 points against the Sea Dragons.
The run game is still a concern after totaling only 2.6 yards per game. It could have another rough day against Arlington’s formidable run defense. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu must continue his solid play. He posted 258 passing yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in the semifinals. The Defenders must take care of the ball against the Renegades. Turnovers can always keep underdogs within reach, which would likely lead to Arlington covering the XFL lines’ point spread.
Renegades vs Defenders Head-to-Head
The Renegades covered the spread in Week 8’s meeting. The two teams combined for over 700 yards with the over hitting. Despite outgaining D.C. by over 100 yards, Arlington lost 28-26 due to third-down struggles.
Renegades vs Defenders Game Information
- Date: Saturday, May 13
- Time: 8:00 pm ET
- Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
- Renegades vs Defenders Live stream: fubo.TV
Renegades vs Defenders Game Weather Conditions
The championship game will be in a neutral site at San Antonio’s Alamodome. The weather will not be a factor in the domed stadium.
Renegades vs Defenders Betting Lines
Renegades vs Defenders Picks and Prediction
Predicted Score: Defenders 30, Renegades 25
Worth Betting ATS?
The Renegades are red-hot ATS, going 3-1 over the last four games. This includes a back-and-forth game against the Defenders in Week 8. Arlington will keep this close once again. D.C. averaged only 2.5 yards per carry and Ta’amu struggled against the Renegades. Perez also played well with 335 yards. If the Renegades are more efficient on third downs, they could pull off the shocking upset.
Ultimately, take the Defenders to win outright in your sports bets, but Arlington will cover the spread. Here’s a fun fact; Perez and Ta’amu have met five times throughout their careers. Ta’amu is 4-1 in the matchups.
Worth Betting on the Totals?
Neither defense has a great secondary, ranking in the bottom half of allowed passing yards per game. Plus, Perez and Ta’amu are playing well. The run games could be nearly nonexistent, but these quarterbacks are capable of carrying the scoring load. Like in Week 8’s matchup, take the over for Renegades-Defenders.
The Defenders are listed at -260 in our Vegas XFL lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Defenders, you have a chance to win $38. The Renegades are +220, offering a chance to win $220 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Defenders a 72.22% chance to win, with Renegades at 31.25%.