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Value Bets and Upset Alerts: UFL Week 4 Picks

In the third week of the inaugural UFL season, the offenses of this league started to find a footing. All four games last week hit the over, which is something to note for UFL picks today.

However, the Birmingham Stallions remain the top team in the league. They are undefeated and look to keep that rolling against the D.C. Defenders in Week 4. On the other hand, the Arlington Renegades and the Houston Roughnecks have yet to win a game, and they are playing in the last matchup this week.

Value Bets and Upset Alerts: UFL Week 4 Picks
A Birmingham Stallions helmet | Gaelen Morse/Getty Images/AFP


Saturday, April 20

Memphis Showboats (1-2) vs St. Louis Battlehawks (2-1), 12:30 p.m. (ABC)

Last week, the Showboats were thoroughly dominated by the Stallions, losing 33-14, and scoring two points in the second half. The Showboats’ quarterbacks were sacked eight times, leading to the offense only gaining 212 total yards.

That is why it makes sense to side with the Battlehawks in this matchup with our UFL expert picks today. While the Battlehawks did not dominate the San Antonio Brahmas in their last game, only winning 31-24, they still won, putting them on top of the XFL conference.

Quarterback A.J. McCarron only threw for 152 yards and a touchdown while rushing in another. The running game was solid, going for 113 yards and two scores.

Being back at home for this matchup against the Showboats should only give the Battlehawks more of an advantage, given how massive the crowd was for the first game in St. Louis.



D.C. Defenders (2-1) vs Birmingham Stallions (3-0), 7 p.m. (FOX)

It is easy to see why the Stallions are favorites to win the title this season, with UFL Championship odds set at +150. That makes this a tough matchup for the D.C. Defenders, who narrowly beat the Arlington Renegades last week, 29-28. The Defenders were down 10 points with just over two minutes remaining but managed to come back, kicking a game-winning field goal with four seconds left. However, the defense did give up 419 total yards, which is not great when going up against the best team in the league the following week.

On the other hand, the Stallions made quick work of the Showboats, winning 33-14. They finished the game with eight sacks, now with a league-high 17 through three games. Furthermore, the offense got rolling behind quarterback Adrian Martinez, possibly winning him the starting job. He threw for 334 yards on 28 attempts and two touchdowns. Martinez also showed off his ability to run the ball, gaining 44 yards on five attempts and another score.

Right now, it is clear that the Stallions are at the top of the UFL and have been outclassing everyone. That should not change when they face the Defenders.



Michigan Panthers (2-1) vs San Antonio Brahmas (2-1), 7 p.m. (FOX)

Outside of a loss to the Stallions, the Michigan Panthers have looked like a solid team, and they will be tested when they face the Brahmas. The Panthers bounced back from their loss to the Stallions to dominate the Houston Roughnecks, 34-20, being the highest-scoring offense in Week 3. That could change UFL lines around the Panthers, who did not commit a turnover against the Roughnecks, running for 124 yards and three scores.

On the other hand, there are some concerns about the Brahmas. They tried to mount a crazy comeback against the Battlehawks, like they had done the previous week, but fell short. In Week 2 against the Showboats, the Brahmas scored 20 points in the fourth quarter to pull off an impressive comeback, taking advantage of the UFL’s onside kick rules. However, the Brahmas only lost 31-24 to the Battlehawks, scoring 11 points in the final quarter and falling short. Quarterback Chase Garbers struggled, completing 27 of 41 passes for only 143 yards and a touchdown.

The Panthers are going on the road for the first time this season but should be able to pull off a win.



Sunday, April 21

Arlington Renegades (0-3) vs Houston Roughnecks (0-3), 2 p.m. (FS1)

The only two winless teams in the league, the Arlington Renegades and the Houston Roughnecks are matched up in the final game of Week 4, making it an interesting option for UFL picks. However, the Renegades should have the advantage. They only lost 29-28 to the Defenders last week while putting up 419 total yards and holding the advantage for most of the game. The offense mainly ran through quarterback Luis Perez, throwing for 290 yards and two touchdowns. The Renegade’s offense has been fine this season, averaging the fourth-most points (22). But they also allow the most points per game in the UFL (27.7).

The Roughnecks have yet to play well all season. They have allowed the second-most points per game (25) while scoring the fewest (16.7). There is little to get excited about when looking at the Roughnecks, who lost to the Panthers 34-20 last week.

One of these teams will finally get a win this season, and it will likely be the Renegades. Their offense has succeeded in keeping games close, losing the last two by less than a field goal. The defense just has to hold an inept Roughnecks offense in check, which they should be able to do.

UFL Pick: Arlington Renegades -2½ (-115)



Questions Of The Day

What is the best bet for Week 4 in the UFL?

The Birmingham Stallions have dominated the UFL through the first three weeks and should continue to do so.

Which UFL team could have the best offense in Week 4?

The Arlington Renegades offense looked good in Week 3 and will face the second-worst scoring defense in the UFL this week.

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