Best MLB Player Props Today: Expect Fireworks in the Desert
Spring weather is in full effect! The NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror and we have a beautiful schedule of MLB games to kick things off Monday. The season is still young, and there is plenty to learn about each team, but our consistently profitable MLB picks are here to deliver. Our best player prop bets went 7-7 last week after we completed a sweep on Friday. I’m looking for another sweep tonight, and our past success should give you the confidence to tag along.
Monday’s MLB schedule features 12 matchups. This is typically a travel day, but many teams start a new series, including some marquee showdowns. Notably, the battle for American League supremacy begins when the New York Yankees travel to Camden Yards to begin a four-game set with the Baltimore Orioles.
The @Yankees take the series and score 15 in back-to-back games for the first time since 2007! 💪 pic.twitter.com/hMgF9Ums1r
— MLB (@MLB) April 28, 2024
The Atlanta Braves head out West to take on the Seattle Mariners. We also have the defending National League champs hosting the current World Series favorites, the LA Dodgers. There are plenty of options for player prop bets today, but I’ve done the hard work of narrowing down the best for you here based on specific criteria or analysis. Get ready for an exciting day of MLB action!
Best MLB Player Props Today
Twins SP Joe Ryan Over 6½ Strikeouts
Joe Ryan, the starting pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, is set to face the struggling Chicago White Sox again. We backed him in his last start against this same lineup, and he came through for us at this number. Ryan pitched six innings, allowed four hits, three runs, and had eight strikeouts. The White Sox lineup has been historically bad to start the 2024 season, having been shut out eight times already. They have put it together a bit over the past seven days, but I’m still looking to fade them. This, combined with their position in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate, sets the stage for a potentially high-strikeout game again for Ryan. This will be Ryan’s second start against Chicago this season. Sometimes, it is difficult for a pitcher to duplicate success the second time around, but the White Sox have been horrible. He went over this line in two starts against the White Sox last year, finishing with 7 and 10 strikeouts in those games.
Ryan has finished with 8, 6, 12, and 7 strikeouts in his four starts this month. In the first series against the White Sox, Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez finished with six strikeouts despite getting pulled after four innings and just 76 pitches. Chris Paddack finished with 10 strikeouts the night before. Before that, Paddack had not struck out more than six in a game since June 2021. Then 23-year-old Simeon Woods Richardson had a career-high six strikeouts!
We’ve recently seen Zach Wheeler finish with 8 strikeouts and Aaron Nola with 7 strikeouts against Chicago. There’s merit behind this. Going back to last season, Ryan is over this line in 14 of his previous 20 starts (70%). Ryan currently has a 29.3% K-BB% which is a career-high mark. Ride with Ryan again tonight.
Joe Ryan, K’ing the Side in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/kL6ierugSg
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 24, 2024
Dodgers SP James Paxton Over 3½ Earned Runs
We’re running into an interesting situation tonight down in the desert. The Dodgers will battle the Diamondbacks for the first time this season after they were swept in the playoffs by Arizona last October. LA won 100 games last season, and they failed to get by the D-Backs. Emotions will be running high with these teams meeting for the first time this season. The Dodgers will send veteran Southpaw James Paxton to the rubber. Paxton signed with LA this winter after making 19 starts for the Red Sox in 2023. He has surprisingly great numbers on the surface through his first four starts as a Dodger, but I’m fading him tonight.
He has a 2.61 ERA but owns a 1.55 WHIP and a 5.30 xERA (expected ERA)! He has been able to pull off some Houdini performances this season. Paxton is in the second percentile in walk percentage. He is sixth in chase rate and fourth in strikeout percentage. He has allowed way too many free passes, which is dangerous against this Diamondbacks lineup that ranks fourth in batting average with runners in scoring position. Arizona has mashed left-handers this season, ranking first in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ when facing lefties. I like the even money we’re getting tonight to fade Paxton. I also like his under 3½ strikeouts prop at the sportsbook.
Questions of the Day
What is the best MLB player prop bet today?
Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan going over 6½ strikeouts.
Who is a good bet to hit a home run today?
Mike Trout has a solid chance to hit a home run today against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are starting lefty Cristopher Sanchez.
