First Inning Fireworks: Three Can’t-Miss MLB Bets for Monday

Cubs vs Mets: Ex-Yankees on the Bump

Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino were teammates for two years in the Bronx. During that time, Taillon made 61 starts and Severino just 19. Both offered very little in the postseason and there weren’t many tears shed in New York when they left for the National League.

Severino is five starts into his New York Mets career and has performed quite well. He has put forth back-to-back quality starts and has given up just five earned runs over his last four outings, spanning 22 innings.

The veteran righty has yet to allow a first-inning run in his five starts while limiting foes to a minuscule .474 OPS. That should play well against a Chicago unit that ranks tied for 25th in first-inning scoring percentage on the road (13.33).

Current Cubbies are a combined 4-for-21 with seven strikeouts vs Severino, who owns a solid 3.09 ERA in his six career starts at Citi Field.

As for Taillon, he’s made just two starts after opening the season on the injured list. There hasn’t been too much rust, however, as the 32-year-old has yielded just one earned run each time out (both Cubs wins).

We got Jameson Taillon on the mound for the first time this season against the Marlins.

Let’s go! Welcome back, @JTaillon50! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DyXPgxktGw

— Just Another Year Chicago: Cubs (@JAYChiCubs) April 18, 2024

It’s obviously a tiny sample size but Taillon has retired all six hitters he’s faced in the opening frame. His two longest starts last year were in New York – one against the Yankees and one against the Mets – and he gave up just two runs on four hits in 15 total innings in those outings.

Taillon is 3-0 with a 2.33 mark in his career against the Mets and owns a 1.71 mark in three outings at Citi Field. Throw in the fact that the Mets are dead last in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage at home (6.67) and you’ve got yourself a safe bet online.

First Inning to Score: NO

Phillies vs Angels: Canning Cannot

This interleague set pits two teams heading in opposite directions, with the Phillies riding a four-game losing streak and the Angels suffering through a four-game slide.

Los Angeles is hoping Griffin Canning can turn some things around after a woeful beginning to 2024. He’s shown some signs with two straight respectable outings – lasting at least five innings both times – but still enters this one with a 7.50 ERA.

Phillies stats against Angels starter Griffin Canning:

Whit Merrifield: 2 for 9, 1 2B
Nick Castellanos: 2 for 6, 1 2B, 1 3Bpic.twitter.com/8tOXkY7O8A

— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) April 29, 2024

The early portions of games have been a disaster for Canning, too. Opponents are 9-for-22 (.409) with six extra-base hits and three walks in the first inning alone, good for a massive 1.371 WHIP.

Eight runs have come across in Canning’s five first innings. These are all pretty rough numbers, but even more alarming heading into a matchup with the Phillies, who simply love to lay it on in the early innings. They rank second only to San Diego in first-inning runs with 29 of them in just 29 games. You can do the math there.

Cristopher Sanchez is one of the many Philadelphia starters who’s enjoyed some early leads. He’s mostly been able to hold them up and owns a tidy 2.96 ERA on the year, but it hasn’t always been clean.

The 27-year-old lefty gave up five runs his last time out in just three innings, although only one was earned. Opponents are batting .286 in the first inning and .313 in the second, picking up as many walks (5) as strikeouts and running wild with four steals in as many chances.

The Angels are listing in a big way but they do have Mike Trout and Taylor Ward and that alone makes them a first-inning obstacle. They’re 11th in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage at 32.14.

First Inning to Score: YES

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks: NL West Heavyweight Clash

We whiffed on a James Paxton offering last week when he and Patrick Corbin combined for a low-scoring matchup we didn’t see coming. He’s back on the bump Monday night in the opener of a big three-game set with Arizona, which swept the Dodgers out of the playoffs the last time these teams met.

Paxton gave up just one run in that start at Washington but it wasn’t all that pretty. He gave up five hits and three walks in just 4⅔ innings while recording only one strikeout. The Nationals threatened multiple times before Big Maple found a way out of it.

James Paxton (4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 1 K) on his outing: “Just trying to find that consistency and I’m confident it’ll get there, it’s just taking a little longer than I’d like right now.” pic.twitter.com/Y11cUdj6EK

— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) April 24, 2024

The big lefty now has 11 walks against only two strikeouts in his last two games. While opponents have yet to get to him in the first inning, he’s followed that same pattern with three free passes against only one punchout. It’s a matter of time before someone jumps on Paxton right away, and who better than the Diamondbacks, who continue to lead the majors in first-inning OPS (1.038)?

Arizona also loves raking at home. It scores in the first inning in Phoenix 53.85% of the time – tied for second in the majors – while averaging 1.08 runs in that frame at home. Those in the Diamondbacks lineup who have faced Paxton are a combined 11-for-36 (.306) with a meaty .611 slugging percentage.

Before Paxton faces this big obstacle in the bottom half, we will see if Tommy Henry can navigate the Hall-of-Fame caliber top of the LA order. He is coming off his best start of the season with six innings of one-run ball, but it was against the Cardinals, the worst offense in the NL.

The Dodgers are on the other end of that spectrum. They lead the majors in runs scored and also lead the way in the first inning, scoring exactly half the time in that frame. Henry’s given up three first-inning runs in his first five starts and is a solid MLB bet to do so again here.

First Inning to Score: YES

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