MLB First Look: German, Houck Duel at Fenway Park
Veterans Hill, Teheran Start Series in Milwaukee
After a quiet Thursday night in which we went 0-2 in our first-inning scoring wager suggestions, we’re locked and loaded for Friday. Big series are beginning in Fenway Park and Minute Maid and Dodger Stadium, to name a few. We’ll try to find some winners to help you along at the sportsbook.
Yankees vs Red Sox
Let’s start with the big series up in Boston that will steal many of the MLB news headlines. It has the feel in Beantown like a last gasp for this Boston Red Sox team to show whether it can stick around or not. Fans who’ve been patient with the overhaul are staring at a fourth last-place finish in the last five years unless the boys at Fenway can get going.
They’ll try to do so with Tanner Houck on the mound. He posted one of his better starts at Yankee Stadium just a few days ago, limiting the Bombers to two runs in six innings. Houck got through the first inning against the Aaron Judge-less New York Yankees on just nine pitches, striking out two, to lower his ERA in that frame to 3.75.
As we’ve mentioned in past RIFI recommendations involving Houck, that’s his style. He gets a jump on opponents almost every time out. It’s simply a matter of whether he can sustain things through the middle frames.
Houck’s ERA in innings 1-3 is 2.00 and in innings 4-6 it’s 8.78. He’ll start strong again against a New York offense scoring 3.4 runs per game while batting .196 since Judge went down.
After Houck finishes his half of the first, Domingo German takes the bump for the Yankees. He’s been spectacular since returning from his sticky stuff suspension, which includes six innings of one-run ball opposite Houck on Saturday, leading the Yankees to a 3-1 win. The 30-year-old has taken advantage of his opportunity by staying healthy, something several teammates on the staff haven’t been able to do.
Opponents are batting .186 against German this year and .200 in the first inning, when he’s posted a 3.75 ERA. The Sox were among the better first-inning offenses, especially at home. Not so much lately. They’ve fallen from fourth in scoring percentage in that frame to 18th in the past four weeks (40.9% to 29.0%).
German has yielded 22 hits while striking out 37 in 31 career innings at Fenway. He should have some clean stretches in this one, and – together with Houck – makes for a nice no-RIFI bet online.
Angels vs Royals
A pair of teams heading in opposite directions tangle in KC, where the surging Los Angeles Angels take on the last-place Kansas City Royals, losers of nine in a row.
Brady Singer’s inability to follow up his outstanding 2022 campaign is one reason Kansas City is where it is. After going 10-5 with a 3.23 ERA in a breakout effort, he has faltered in the first half of this season with an ERA more than double last year (6.58).
Part of the problem has been a handful of rocky openings. Singer sports a 6.92 mark in the first inning, with opponents compiling 15 hits and eight walks in those 13 frames.
The former first-round pick has made just one so-so start in his career against the Angels, so there’s not much to go by there. Those analyzing the MLB lines should know that Los Angeles is fifth in the majors in first-inning slugging percentage (.483) and fourth in runs per first on the road (0.70).
Patrick Sandoval gets the nod for the Angels. Like Singer, he’s struggled to duplicate his solid 2022 campaign. And like Singer, one of the issues has been a propensity to start slow in many games. Sandoval has given up 10 runs (nine earned) in 12 first innings.
He’s also been a bit shakier on the road, where the 26-year-old has issued 18 walks in 28⅔ innings. The Royals don’t take a ton of walks but remain potent in the first inning, scoring 36.8 percent of the time – 5th-best in the majors.
This has all the markings of some early offense. Take all this into account when analyzing the MLB odds for first-inning scoring. If you’re into live betting, you should know that the Angels boast a top-notch bullpen (3.35 ERA), while Kansas City’s is one of the worst (4.86).
Pirates vs Brewers
The NL Central is a real mess. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers sit atop the division and have lost three straight and six straight, respectively. St. Louis is 15 games below .500 and only eight games out. The streaking Cincinnati Reds figure to be atop the standings in no time, now just a game out.
The Pirates and Brewers will try to keep the Reds on their heels during this big weekend set in Milwaukee. Julio Teheran gets the ball for the reeling hosts. He’s been one of the team’s few bright spots, allowing just four earned runs in 24⅓ innings over four starts since signing with the team last month.
In those four starts, Teheran has yet to allow a run in both the first and second innings. He’ll be facing a Pirates lineup that has plummeted in first-inning categories. Pittsburgh entered May leading the majors in scoring percentage in the opening stanza at 44.83. They pull into Friday tied for 13th at 29.9.
There’s been a lot of goose eggs that caused that drop.
Rich Hill will hope for a little support from those struggling Pirates bats when he gets the start for Pittsburgh. He’s let up just three runs in the first inning over his last 11 starts. The veteran lefty is 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA in two starts this month, so he carries in some momentum.
Additionally, Hill has a 2.05 ERA in his career at Miller Park/American Family Field, and active Brewers are batting .219 with zero homers against him. Finally, Milwaukee is last in the majors in OPS against lefties at .644.
Anything can happen when you make your MLB picks, but that’s a lot of support for a smooth Hill start.
