NFL Week 17 Preview & Early NFL Picks | NFL Odds, NFL Sunday Predictions & Picks

Speaker 2:

Week 17 is finally here and it is no longer the final week of the NFL regular season due to a new 18 week schedule, but it is still home to a number of crucial games with playoff implications. The Eagles and Net Washington will face off the second time in three weeks, followed by the Chief’s visit in the Bengals as road favorites, Dallas hosting Arizona in Jerry’s world and the Vikings and Packers leveling off on Sunday Night Football and Pittsburgh hosting the Browns as small home dogs on Monday night. Our NFL crew is coming up a solid week 16, going eight and four, and we can’t wait to hear what they have in store for us this week. So without further ado, let’s welcome Matt Landes, Las Vegas Cris and Scott Kellen.

Matt Landes:

NFL week 17 around the corner and guys, another day, another bombshell, this time, Carson went to the COVID list. Gut reaction for a lot of us, he’s unvaccinated, so he’s going to be out on Sunday, but not so fast, now there’s word, the NFL and NFLPA discussing some potential changes to protocols per new CDC guidance that cuts the recommended isolation period from 10 days down to five days. And if your head is spinning, trying to keep up with all this, you’re not alone. Cris, I think the biggest thing we can take away as betters, flexibility about as important as it’s ever been.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, it’s so frustrating, it tied me up into a pretzel last week. I get stuck on bad positions that I’d recommended to other people and it makes you look foolish a little bit, but you can only do so much. But, you have to look at what your options are sometimes. I was holding bad numbers on Baltimore and Detroit, and I did feel like in the past I’ve been holding this stuff, but I had a feeling that those weren’t going to last, this was pretty serious and I should at least get off a portion of my bet. And when the NFL football lines move several points away, it doesn’t give you any options. So a tricky thing that I do in emergencies is, I’ll tease.

Las Vegas Cris:

So I was holding Detroit plus four and a half and I had a lot on it and I wanted to get off some of it. So I teased Atlanta minus the one into a better I was going to place later anyway, which was Dallas. And that landed four in that middle, which was nice. And I did the same thing with Cincinnati, but that just saved me money instead because that was matched with Dallas. So you just have to think outside the box sometimes in these situations and do some crazy stuff sometimes. And it’s bizarre. It really makes you think.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, it’s definitely been chaotic trying to keep up with everything lately, but with some of the creative thinking you just spoke to, between the three of us, we’ve been able to rebound pretty well. When we look at our records for this season to date above 500 across the board if we take a look at a full screen graphic for the YouTube audience coming up right now. And Scott, I’d like to toss it to you for your thoughts on that wave that this season has been collectively starting off pretty well, maybe a bit of a lull in the middle of the season. And it seems like the more muddled the new cycle has gotten, the more we’ve seemingly found our footing in recent weeks. What do you have to say about the bigger picture of following picks like these over the course of a full season?

Scott Kellen:

Well, it’s a great topic, Matt. I think we talked about this early in the year, maybe even the preseason. Even in my best years where I’m hitting 58, 59, 60%, the first thing I’ll go back and look at is, a lot of times the majority of the gains for that season come really in three or four weeks. You’re not winning every single week for 17, 18 weeks, and oh my God, this is great, we’re going five and three every week, it’s, you get three or four weeks where you do really well, you very much minimize the downside, and next thing you know, you’re at 58, 59, 60%, you’ve had a great year.

Scott Kellen:

But if you miss those, we’ve seen this from a investing standpoint, right, if you miss X days of the market, you miss all the returns in the market. It’s the same thing here. And then the other thing, having been someone that has sold picks for a long time. I’m not selling them this year, but have for 15, 16 years, even if I end up at the end of the year at 56%, which by all standards is a pretty good year, if you started out in the whole, and then you got the 56%, I’m not stupid enough, I know I’ve lost some clients because that was negative. They gave up on you. They didn’t have faith because they were losing and whatnot, even though you got the 56%.

Scott Kellen:

So when you’re following people, A, hopefully you know them well enough that you have enough strength to stay with them through thick and thin. And I guess the other thing I would throw in there is, when I’m starting out, even this year, I started out just personally at 70%, I’m not finishing at 70%. I’m probably not finishing at 60%, which means if you start to do the math, I might be 50% the rest of the year after you start out 70% and you end up at 56%.

Scott Kellen:

And if you start out at 45%, that’s ironically, when you probably should buy someone’s picks, if you really believe in them, because they’re probably going to end up at 54%, which means they’re going to do pretty well the rest of the year.

Scott Kellen:

So a long winded answer to your question, you have to stay with people if you believe in them and just work through it and hope that at the end of the year you’re going to be there because it goes up and down. It’s a rollercoaster ride many times. Very few years are just consistent winners, and thankfully, we’ve done okay on this show, all of us have, but it hasn’t been consistent, right? And so you have to have your mindset correct, especially when you’re following people at the beginning of the year, so you can stick to it and make it through assuming that they do well at the end of the year.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, certainly a results oriented bottom line at the end of the day. But at the same time, I think the process and strategy we can share, hopefully that’s just always going to provide value to the audience week in and week out. And we will look to do just that as we take our early look at week 17.

Matt Landes:

Before we get there, everybody a quick shout out to the YouTube audience, please take a quick moment to give us a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel and as always, jump in that chat, let us know what you think as well as if you have any questions we can get to near the end of this show. And with that, we will start to hit some games pretty quickly, because we will not have the traditional line movement forecast from Cris today. And, and this new cycle simply put, your guess is as good as ours. And that goes the same for the injury breakdown with Scott. Just too many to list right now.

Matt Landes:

So guys, let’s get into some games where we do have some degree of clarity, and that takes us first to an NFC’s matchup between the Eagles and Washington, Philadelphia currently laying four, total 46. And Cris, you’re on a side on this one, tell us about it.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. And I’m going to bring back a topic that we discussed in divisional previews, and that’s the ability to pivot. And last week was a perfect example of pivoting because I think we had played New England eight weeks in a row and won seven of them, I think eight or nine and one for the season and went against them in last week and pivoted to Buffalo. In fact, a friend of mine thought I was lying. He was convinced I was still on New England. No, I pivoted. I actually had to support it.

Las Vegas Cris:

I haven’t been supportive of Philadelphia at all this year, basically been betting against them, and they’ve improved dramatically. I have them number two in the NFL over the last five weeks in improvement, mainly on the defensive side. Meanwhile, Washington, they had their nice run, but it’s hard to believe, I have them at number 26 over the last five weeks. I thought that they would still be a little bit higher, even though we know they’ve slumped a little bit, and I have them number 24 overall, which is pretty mediocre. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is made such a big jump that I’m not going to tell you where I have them because it doesn’t make sense, but they’ve made quite a jump.

Matt Landes:

Higher than the Cleves, the Bills, the Bucks.

Las Vegas Cris:

No, they’re not quite that high, but they’re in the top 15. I’ll just put it that way somehow. And I find that, I don’t know. I’m still having a hard time buying it, but I had this line at about a little bit over a touchdown. And I generally don’t move fast, laying three and a half points. I want to see if I can nail that three, and I just pulled the trigger this morning and said, “Nah, I’m not going to see a three. We’re going to just suck it up and take that three and a half.” And I think that was the right move.

Matt Landes:

And at the current number of four, are you still on board with the Eagles? Assuming so, what’s the price ceiling to bet Philly if you make the line seven?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I don’t like this spot. It’s a horrible spot because it’s a divisional rivalry and anything over … You’re supposed to blindly just take the field goals in these matchups. But I just have to and we’ve referenced it in previous weeks, the home underdogs of more than three and a half, we’re winning at a 38% clip, less than 40%. So we’re doing okay in these situation. So I’m just following the metrics and I’d lay the four, for anything more than that. I wouldn’t want to, but I probably might.

Matt Landes:

Well, that reminds me, that facial expression says it all. The more nervous I am, usually the better I do.

Las Vegas Cris:

That’s your problem, I’m up there.

Matt Landes:

Wise words of pivoting [to LVC 00:10:59]. So you could see it all on the screen right there. And I’ll just go ahead and make quick note. This is a rematch from what we saw in week 15 in that one, that was a Tuesday game. I think, as we recorded this show at this time last week, it still actually hadn’t kicked off yet. Even though here we are in week 17, that one helping to wrap up week 15.

Matt Landes:

The Eagles went plus three in yards per play, just three for six in the red zone, minus two in turnovers, they thoroughly dominated that one and probably should have won by a lot more than they did. I think we were all pretty fortunate to get a push on that Washington plus 10, that we locked in on game day. But in this one, Washington is going to be healthier after they were dealing with a big bout of COVID injuries, altogether, I think that the Eagle’s domination last time around paired with the Washington health improvement, nets out to about a wash for me. So it’s a pass for me for now. Scott, how about you?

Scott Kellen:

I make the line about three. So that would give us a little bit of value with Washington. Pretty decent situation with Washington here as a home dog, I can see Cris agrees with my line by the way, but a pretty good situation on Washington here, a home dog, we give up 40 or more points, it’s a bounce back situation for them.

Scott Kellen:

To your point, Matt, they’re getting healthy, but, do I want any part of Washington? We saw that debacle on Sunday night, the fighting on the sidelines, they got a player who got in an accident, the gal in the car who actually was from Vegas got killed. Ron Rivera mentioned it. They’re dealing with a lot of stuff right now as well. And then when I look here, Washington this year at home has beat the Giants by one and Seattle by two, obviously not very good teams. When they’ve played good teams and Philadelphia is becoming a pretty decent team as Cris mentioned, they lose by four of the Chargers lose by 11 to the Saints when the Saints were actually the Saints at the beginning of the year, lose the Chiefs by 18, did beat Tampa by 10, they lose to Dallas by seven, just a couple weeks ago.

Scott Kellen:

So they’re not being real competitive even at home against the better teams. So that makes me wonder a little bit. Pointed out last week, Philadelphia against the really bad offenses that they’ve faced, and I don’t put Washington in that boat, but they’re having a lot of points to the really bad offenses. Washington’s better than a bad offense, but all that just makes me question if I really want Washington, I don’t know the state of this team. I will say, to add a little more value here. I made this number 39 and a half, and I’ve got to go back and look at that. And I’m constantly swapping out players because of COVID and whatnot. So I got to chuck all that and I wouldn’t commit to that until we get closer to a game, but I did notice Washington eight and one to the under the last nine games as a home dog. Again, I make this number 39 and a half.

Scott Kellen:

Philly’s been pretty good against average to certainly below average offenses, they’re probably going to run the ball and eat some clock, and we’ve got to divide it. By the way, this is the last week, this does not really apply the last week of the season, but these higher divisional totals late in the season tend to go under. So I may, before Sunday comes take a look at the under, in this game, especially if it stays at 45 and a half or higher.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Well, as you touched on Scott Washington aside that you’re not going to play just based on the numbers, plenty of blowout, potential involved in some of their recent games. I think you could say the same thing about the New York Giants and we’ll get to their game this week, traveling to Chicago to take on the Bears. Chicago at BetUs currently laying seven at plus 105, total of 37 and a half. And Scott, as we stick in the NFC, what are you looking for in this matchup between the Giants and the Bears?

Scott Kellen:

I haven’t played anything here yet just because of COVID. It’s almost just being solid in terms of just waiting on some of this stuff. So I’m going to wait, we’ll see who’s going to be quarterback for the Bears. But this is a situation the Giants are falling into that I’ve mentioned numerous times here. We’ve got a team as a dog who has struggled to score points the last couple of games. This is a situation that just historically is a winner every single year. So it puts the Giants in a qualification in that situation.

Scott Kellen:

So, that certainly gets my attention. I’m showing value on the Giants here in this game. And I look back the last two years, these two have played here, actually Bears won here last year at 17, 13 laying four and a half. And then two years ago, 19, 14 laying six points. And we know that at least the Bears do beat, as we’ve mentioned many times, they beat the bad teams, they lose to the good teams and they beat Seattle last week with Nick Foltz in charge, but the Giants have also been competitive against bad teams here as well.

Scott Kellen:

So in my mind, this is laying a lot of points for a bad team against another bad team, and we got a very low total, which means there’s probably, as you’ve said multiple times, not a lot of variance here in terms of what we could probably expect in this game. It’s a fair amount of points in a lows total, two bad teams. I’m looking Giants, if anything, and we’ll see, but I would not be surprised if I’m not on the Giants if this stays at six or higher by Sunday.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, I will lean the Giants way with you, but what’s keeping me off for now, maybe a bit of recency bias. Their offense last week, generating just 2.6 yards per play, net 2.3 yards per pass, playing a bit of eeny meeny miny moe with quarterback, it’s just a putrid situation on their offense right now, but as you touched on, Scott, that seems to be reflected and then some, if we’re seeing a line as high as Chicago minus seven. So I certainly going to be thinking about the Giants a bit if I want to get involved at all in this pretty ugly match up over the next few days. Cris it sounds like this game, an example of a situation that you’re really not too fond of.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, what I am fond of is a team that’s consistent and the Giants are Steady Eddie, they’re 27th in the last five weeks and they’re 29th for the whole season. So you would think that we’d be able to make some more money off of them, but they’ve been mainly involved in games that you don’t want any part of. You never know who’s going to play and there’s just too many variables that are unknown. Chicago, believe it or not, I was lucky to add that in the comment section of the Thursday video last week, I added Chicago plus seven late. I didn’t even expect to play them last week, probably because I didn’t think it was ever going to hit seven, but that was a nice add on. And Chicago’s actually number two over the last five weeks, some way somehow, in improvement versus other teams, they’re still mired down in the 25th hole.

Las Vegas Cris:

But I agree with what Scott said primarily is, you got two bad teams, low total points, the only way that I could look would be the Giants. I don’t see myself getting on this game at this point because, I don’t know. There’s just too many injuries, too many unknowns, it just seems like there’s just enough there in the Giants that you want to play them and … Two bad teams, plus the points is the only way I can look.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, we can’t say we’ve got two bad teams involved in the next game we’ll get to. Certainly one bad team, the Jets hosting Tampa Bay. And in that one, the Bucks laying two touchdowns on the road, although there’s plus 105 being attached to that minus 14 for Tampa Bay at BetUs. Total in this one, 45 and a half. Cris, another game, that’s not a spectacular matchup, but something you were quick to identify this season double digit favorites doing better than they had historically, is there anything that could get you looking the Bucks way between now and kickoff?

Las Vegas Cris:

No, I have concern about Tampa Bay though. I do have a to win the conference wager in pocket and I am concerned because they’re number 26 over the last five weeks, they’re slipping. We know they have the injuries and incomplete team and we saw Brady throwing the iPad and they’ve obviously, this is probably a great time for them to have a little bump in the road, frankly, but I don’t see any value on this game. I have the line basically 15, so it’s right there. The Jets are exactly where you would think they are at 21 and 28 for last five in the season. And it’s just painful to even have to be involved in a Jets game. So I had to sweat that out with a Jacksonville teaser last week. So yeah, I’m pretty sure I’ll be on the sidelines on this one, no matter what.

Matt Landes:

I think I’ll see you on the sidelines because I have no appetite for the Jets right now and Tampa Bay, I don’t want to lay the two touchdowns, but I do feel like they might have gotten their injuries to pop up at the right time because since they got decimated in that Sunday night game against the Saints a couple of weeks ago, they end the season with the Panthers and the Jets and the Panthers. That is a pretty soft on-ramp if I’ve ever seen one, although some of these injuries are probably going to become much more of a factor in the playoffs to your point, Cris, being concerned about the future of bet to win the conference. That said, I don’t think that’s going to become too much of an issue when they take on the Jets this Sunday. So a pass for me, maybe there’s some fortuitous timing for Tampa Bay with some injuries. Scott, what do you make of this one between the Bucks and the Jets?

Scott Kellen:

Well, Jets got a lot of COVID issues right now, and you can argue that Jets are a horrible team, a bunch of bad players, blah, blah, blah. But the COVID issues that have hit them have hit some of their better players too, especially on the defensive side, which was not very good to start with. They lost their secondary to injury earlier in the year and we’ll see how that all plays out between now and Sunday. So that’s just something that catches my eye. Tampa Bay also is going to get Breshad Perriman back at the receiver position and Antonio Brown obviously helped them a lot just because they have a little bit more of a deep threat there as well.

Scott Kellen:

So the only way I would really look at that, I’m showing value on Tampa bay, but I don’t really want to lay double digits here, especially because Tampa has suffered some injuries on the defensive side, but I would possibly look at their team total points, which right now might be about 29 and a half to good offenses this year, the Jets at home have allowed 31 to Cincinnati, 45 to Buffalo, 33 to Philly, and even just recently to a really bad offense, 30 to New Orleans. These are all at home. And I’ve got Tampa Bay scoring about 34 in this game right now. So there might be some value to the over on the team total points, if you can get it under 30 with 29 and a half minus 120 juice or better, that would be the only way I would look in this game if I look to any side or total, otherwise it’d be a pass for me.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. And Scott, before we go any further, I think it’s a good time to note, we will not have you with us on the Thursday show, but you brought up some really good points already about, at the very least, some strong leans to the under between Philadelphia and Washington to the Giants, potentially catching as much as plus seven and then in this game as well, as you just outlined, the Bucks team total. So if you want to just keep myself, Cris posted on any picks that you lock in before we start recording on Thursday, we can certainly share those as well, and maybe get that still as part of the official picks for the week in our Thursday show, it’s tough to lock in a lot of plays, especially in a new cycle like this, this early in the week. But if we get any more clarity, it sounds like a few picks you’re pretty close to pulling the trigger on. So we can have the audience stay tuned for that.

Matt Landes:

And with that, we can move on to the next game, guys. If you thought that a 14 point road favorite would be the biggest favorite we’d see on this show, think again, because we’ve got a 15 and a half point favorite in the Patriots hosting Jacksonville, total of that one 41 and a half. And Cris, as you’ve touched on off the top, a pivot on the Patriots most recently paying off, what are you expecting from them this Sunday?

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, it gives you the bad feeling of you’re cheating on your girlfriend or something. When you’re playing with a team for so many weeks in a row and you just change sides. I just had that feeling, because I was rooting for New England because we had them early, but we saw that they were fading a little bit, believe it or not number 28 over the last five weeks. I don’t know how that’s possible, because they’ve really only had the two bad games that are registering in my memory. But I think that they’re coming back to earth a little bit here. What did I have this at?

Las Vegas Cris:

I had the line showing a lot of value at 15 and a half, believe it or not, but I’m just going to stay away from it. I don’t like how New England’s trending at this point. But one thing to consider is, it’s open season on Trevor Lawrence this week with Bill Belichick in rookie quarterback. So Belichick has a way of shutting them down. Well, I don’t know how to play New England today, that’s the only way that I would go on it. I don’t think I’ll be on it, but I may be on it.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. As you talk about open season on Lawrence for Bill Belichick makes me think that I was perhaps a week early to take the Jags under their team total. So maybe I’ll give that one another look against a much better defense going from the Jets to the Patriots as the Jags opposition this weekend. My only note on this one, the Patriots and Bill is probably the game of the week for week 16 and the Patriots managed to go just one for 10 on third down minus two in turnovers that certainly did them in. They could have that same third down percentage in turnover differential, and probably still win this one fairly comfortably. Again, that’s baked into the price and then some when we consider New England laying 15 and a half in this spot.

Matt Landes:

And Scott, I want see what you think in particular of a spread this high, when we’ve got a total of 41 and a half, it reminds me of what you mentioned with the Giants-Bears game, those 15 and a half points looming extra large and a total this low. Do you think there might be any opportunity whether somebody wants to bet the underdog parlay to the under or the favorite parlay to the over?

Scott Kellen:

Well, I made the total about 42 and a half and there could be obviously some adjustments between now and then. The other thing to note with Jacksonville here, Josh Allen, very good defender for them, he’s on COVID, Myles Jack goes on COVID, and I haven’t made all the adjustments for all that yet either. I’m like Cris. Well, I’ve got New England favored by a little bit less 13, that’ll probably trickle up after I make a few adjustments. So maybe a slight bit of value on Jacksonville. A couple of decent situations on Jacksonville at this point in the year, one of them being, and again, I don’t know how much it comes into play here because they’re playing Jacksonville, but New England’s given up, what? 33 and 27 points the last two weeks. That usually doesn’t bode well for home favorites giving up a whole lot of points.

Scott Kellen:

Again, can Jacksonville do anything about that? I don’t know. And like Cris said, rookie quarterback, so Belichick could take something out on them from that, and obviously they’re coming off a couple of losses. Could they make a statement game here against the team that probably can can’t really fight back? Certainly some things could happen there. For me, it’d be a Jacksonville or nothing look, but I had my feel of Jacksonville two and three weeks ago. And that’s probably about enough that I need to see in Jacksonville the rest of the year. So I probably won’t be involved, but I would look dog or nothing. As far as the correlated parlay hard to say here. I don’t think I would do that. But like I said, dog or nothing for me and it’ll probably be nothing.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. What we do have you involved in the next game we’ll get to as we make our way to the late window on Sunday with our early look at the week 17 board, let’s get into Cardinals, Cowboys, Dallas currently laying five and a half, total of 51 and a half. Scott, it seems like you’re looking for some fireworks on Sunday in Dallas.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’ve got value with the over. This has been bet up here in the last couple of days, but I’m still showing value all the way up to 52. We’re currently at what? 51 and a half. I’ve got this closer to about 56 points here. I make the number about five. So I side is about right. I’ll give you two ways to play this game. I think there’s enough, even though we haven’t seen great strides out of Arizona here recently, I think Arizona can come in from an offensive standpoint and contribute enough to get us to the total or going over the 51 and a half 52 points here. But I played this last week and I’ve played this many times this year and we mentioned it last week, Prescott now has scored and Dallas has scored 31 or more points in 14 in the last 18 games that Dak has started at home.

Scott Kellen:

And I’m making right now Dallas about 31 points here in this game. I don’t know exactly what the team total is, but it’s probably going to be about 27, 27 and a half. So you could play Dallas over the team total here. I think there’s plenty of value there, or you play this game over the game total of 51 and a half, but Dallas has showed that they can score points at home. I don’t think there’s anything coming from Arizona that’s going to really slow down this offense, including now they’ll probably be without Markus Golden who’s on the COVID list as well, who’s one of their better pass rushers and they’ve struggled in the secondary. They just tried to pick up Bashaud Breeland this morning before they got him signed, he’s already on the COVID list, which tells you, they need help in the secondary, and we saw a little bit of that last week as well. So I think over the total here and or over the team total for Dallas are both good value plays in this game. For me, the side is priced about right.

Matt Landes:

When you touch on the Cowboy scoreboard output recently, it’s pretty impressive to me considering their offense had been mired in a bit of a slump by the looks of it. It seemed like Dak really hadn’t been full strength since returning from a calf injury up until this past Sunday night when they just went crazy on Washington. And that was a nice pendulum game for the Cowboys offense. Again, we talked about a bit of a slump leading up to that one, but they go 11 for 16 on third and fourth down, a perfect six for six in the red zone. And Scott, if I had to make a play, total related in this one, I think I would agree with you on the Cowboys team total. The Cardinal’s offense just seems like it’s been reeling and I don’t want to rely on them to do much of anything to get a bet home for me.

Matt Landes:

So I like your look at both the full game as well as team total opportunities for Dallas and Cris, when it comes to the reeling Cardinals, I want to get your thoughts, but let’s have Scott jump right back in here with one more.

Scott Kellen:

Just one last thing on that, Matt, too, you remember, we pointed this out last week. Dallas was on the road for three weeks in a row and yeah, they scored some points, but like you said, and rightfully so, their offense was struggling, but they scored 56 last week against Washington and some of that was a competition, 33 against Vegas although they lost that game, 43 against Atlanta. Those are their last three home games. And I think they mentioned this on Sunday night, they don’t hold me to this, but I believe their red zone offense at home has been off the charts and on the road, not so much. So that’s where I get comfortable with this despite what we’ve seen maybe a little bit with their offense is just, this team just seems to play much better at home in very friendly confines that are really conducive to offenses as well.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. When it comes to that notion, I know even a full season can be a small sample size and home road splits can be blown out of proportion a lot. Do the conditions as you touched on in more or less a dome in Dallas, do the conditions there have you even more optimistic about their offense playing at home or do you think that some of it is just noise in the inherently small sample we get even over the course of a full season?

Scott Kellen:

It’s probably noise, but there is something about that place that they do just seem … Look at these stats 14 of the last 18 games, they’ve scored 31 or more with Dak starting. Yes, sample sizes and all that, in football, we’re always dealing with small sample sizes. So I agree a hundred percent with that, but that’s 18 home games. You only get eight or so prior to this season right and, I don’t know if Cowboys got an extra one this year or not. So we’re going back three, four years, whatever that is, right? So I guess less than three, well, he missed most of last year, right? He started maybe two or three at home. So we’re going back to 2019 I believe, in all their games that they’ve done pretty well at home. And other teams have come in there and say, “This is the perfect environment.” They love playing in there, which is partly with Dallas’ defense obviously in the past or better this year. But I think other teams have scored there too, just because of the confines as well.

Matt Landes:

Cris, do you think the Cowboys are back after what they showed us on Sunday night?

Las Vegas Cris:

I’m going to interrupt, Carson Wentz is upgraded to questionable and the two, they just issued a memorandum, five days have to pass between the initial specimen and testing negative and at least 24 hours have passed since somebody’s had a fever. So those are the two main changes to the COVID policy, which is why Wentz could possibly play this weekend, which is good news. That’s the way it should be. It makes no sense. But to answer your question, I think, yeah, they’re not 56 to whatever back, but they’re there and I actually always expected them to come back.

Las Vegas Cris:

It’s very common for these teams to go through hot streaks or cold streaks and go back to the team that they really are. And I honestly believe in the Dallas Cowboys, I think they’re a solid team and I actually, believe it or not, I’m so sick and tired of hearing about the Dallas Cowboys from Skip Bayless or they just get so over promoted. I used to be a big fan and then I was starting to root against him, I’m starting to root for again, because they don’t have any showboats causing problems like back in the old days. And they seem to be working hard and they’re taking a lot of crap and I don’t believe they’ve done anything this century. So nice to see them back. Arizona is-

Scott Kellen:

And we’re 20 years into the century, by the way, too.

Las Vegas Cris:

Pardon me.

Scott Kellen:

We’re 20 years into the century too.

Las Vegas Cris:

’22.

Scott Kellen:

’21.

Las Vegas Cris:

’21. Yeah.

Matt Landes:

Scott, are you trying to say that it’s no longer Aikman, Irvin and Emmett Smith leading that team?

Scott Kellen:

I guess. We’re into it now.

Las Vegas Cris:

But those are good teams if you were rooting for them. It’s like me and my Pistons I love Bill Laimbeer because he was on my team. I liked the Bad Boys, but everybody else hated us. But Arizona, boy, they are just falling off the cliff, quite frankly, I believe they’ve lost five out of eight games, they’re in the low twenties over the last five weeks. And I’ve got a little mini problem on my charts because I have Arizona still as a top 10 team, but I know that they aren’t. So I’ve got to take a look at them. Dallas is-

Matt Landes:

Is there anything you can do? When you mentioned still having them as a top 10 team, is there anything you can do manually to add extra weight to recent form knowing they’ve had some injuries and even though Murray’s back, he frankly hasn’t looked a hundred percent since he returned to the lineup.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, yeah, those are all going to be manual cerebral adjustments. The model’s going to stay the model unless there’s changes that affect every team. So when PATs move and scoring changes and there’s changes that happen to every team, then you do have to make some changes, but this seems to be a one off where fortunately it doesn’t tell me to play against them or on them. So I would lean toward Dallas being the play here, just because I’m showing that there is a little bit of value on Arizona. So I flip it the other way manually in my head. But this is just the sequel to last year. They did the same thing last year, started off great and Kyler got injured. I think he was more injured last year than this year, but they’re just being figured out, and quite frankly, I don’t think their coaching is very good.

Las Vegas Cris:

I was really high on Kliff, but the team is not disciplined. How many penalties in the last game? They just gifted the Colts so much. They’re botching kicks, they’re not taking kicks when they’re supposed to be taking kicks, they pissed away a minute of that fourth quarter, if you’re going to kick the field goal, then kick the field goal from the 20 yard line. Why do you go all the way up to the 10, burn 40 seconds off the clock. And then on top of it, kick it from the 10 yard line on third down, what are you doing? So a lot of things just don’t make sense. So I like Scott’s look at the over, I actually bet some over, under, the current total right now, but I think I’m going to be off of this side at this point.

Matt Landes:

I like the point about the Cardinals falling off a Kliff, Cris, especially if you meant that as a play on words, K-L-I-F-F in their case. Well done and the next game-

Las Vegas Cris:

Nothing gets by you.

Matt Landes:

… Yeah, that journalism background coming into play here. The next game we’ve got a team falling off the cliff as the rest of the world would spell the word, Seattle, really struggling lately. And they’re hosting Detroit. Somehow the Seahawks still laying seven, total 42 and a half, but Cris, tell us about this line and how it shows value on your Detroit Lions.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I usually bring something interesting about the Lions. The Detroit Lions are poised to break an NFL record sometime over the next two weeks. Do you guys have any idea what it could be?

Matt Landes:

Something about covering one more game might give them the best ATS percentage in a regular season?

Las Vegas Cris:

That’s a good guess, but no. They are actually at 36 fourth down attempts and the NFL record is 39 and that’s held by the New England Patriots from 1995. And the Patriots went 15 for 39 on their fourth down attempts. And the Lions would actually better that because they already have 18 conversions of 36. So it’ll be interesting to see them break that odd record, which will be like the three point record in basketball that’ll keep on getting broken, I have a feeling. But that’s a little feather in the cap, but for the life of me, I don’t understand. Thank goodness he did it. He was always going for fourth downs, why did he kick a field goal down seven fourth down from my … I heard people complaining that the fix was in. It was ridiculous. So I didn’t watch it live, but I guess it was pretty bad. And it helped me middle that game.

Scott Kellen:

I was shocked he kicked it. I did not think he would kick that then. Because it was what? 250 or something left in the game.

Las Vegas Cris:

Right.

Scott Kellen:

Wasn’t a lot of time.

Las Vegas Cris:

Goff should be back. And it’s got the vote of confidence from Campbell this week when Campbell was asked, “Could this be the quarterback of the future?” He basically said, “I don’t see why not, he’s doing well.” And he is doing well. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league since the Lions had their buy. So I think we’re feeling a little bit better about Mr. Tiny Hands, maybe he can come through. But anyway, on this game, I have these teams a lot closer in value than one would think. And this is another situation. This is like when you go out to dinner, you’re the new couple, like the three of us, this is our first year doing this. And we go out with a couple and all they’re doing is bickering. And you know that that relationship is going to be over and you got to sit there and watch it crash out, which is like what Russell and Carroll are going through. So they’re not going to be together next year. We know that. What do they have left to play for?

Las Vegas Cris:

The Lions are still playing with high energy, I like them plus seven points and it’s certainly no guarantee or anything like that. But again, I’ll be repetitive, don’t take a bad team unless the bad team’s facing another bad team, giving them points.

Matt Landes:

I’m with you on this one, Cris. And I think even though the Lions covered last week, that was one of the more misleading final scores. The Lions over four the red zone, the Falcons two for two. And if the Lions don’t have an interception at the end of that game, if they go ahead and score a touchdown and win outright, which very well may have happened, I don’t think there’s any chance they’re catching a touchdown in this spot, especially because I think this line might still be factoring in a bit much of a home field advantage for the Seahawks. I think that home field advantage can fluctuate based on how good a team is. And Seattle going through this stretch. It’s not exactly the 12th man, as we knew it in the Legion of Boom days. So just as a value play, I’m going to plug my nose, go to the window once again, with the Lions and join you there, Cris. Scott, what are you looking for in this matchup between Detroit and Seattle?

Scott Kellen:

I’m not going to play the game. I do want to get Cris’s opinion on Detroit’s offense and how well they’re going to do in this game.

Las Vegas Cris:

They’re going to be offensive.

Scott Kellen:

Didn’t John McKay say something about that execution, I’m all in favor of it?

Las Vegas Cris:

That was great.

Matt Landes:

He worded it a little bit better than Brian Kelly did at the start of this past college season.

Scott Kellen:

Yes. I’ve got this total pretty high. I had the total high last week. I stayed off because of the snow, which, snow in itself is not enough to deter you get off a total, but it was a late game and I really didn’t have time to see what was going on with that before it started, watching the other games. But we pointed this out last week too, Seattle now we just add another one to the loss column here, three in 11 against the spread since 2017 is a home favorite of six or more. They’re not winning these games that they’re favored in by a fair amount of points, they’re not winning them by margin. And I don’t have it in my notes here, but I believe I said last week, they’d only won three of those games by more than three points, even. So they’re just not winning these games. And here we go again, they’re a big favorite.

Scott Kellen:

I actually show a little bit of value on Seattle. So I’m probably not going to be on Detroit, but something you said too, Matt, and I don’t put Russell Wilson in this boat, but the rest of squad you could put in this boat, when you have teams that do really well, year after year, after year, after year, and now here’s a team that’s got a win percentage of 333 or whatever they’re at. It’s pretty bad. You can see the veterans. They don’t really care to show up anymore, right? Because they’re showing up every year in week 16, 17, and now 18 this year, because they’re about to go to the playoffs. That’s not happening here. So we’ll see how well Carroll can keep it together with these veterans on this team where you’re used to winning all the time and now they got to show up to play nothing.

Scott Kellen:

So that would concern me a little bit if you’re playing Seattle as well, but I may take a look at the total here. Seattle’s offense has been okay lately scoring 24 last week, 33 against Houston, I’m going to say 30 against San Francisco. We know that was a lot of fraud upon return and a whole bunch of stuff happened there, but maybe their offense can do enough against this Detroit defense, which has been actually pretty decent, but that’s why we’ve got a low total here. So that’s why I’m curious from Cris’s standpoint, who follows the Lions, where he thinks the Lions can come in offensively in this game to possibly get it over the total. I don’t know if you’ve thought about that or have any opinion on that.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I recall, I don’t know this from history, because Goff’s first season is this year, but I seem to recall that his record outside or in cold temperatures is pretty atrocious. So that’s the first thing I would look up-

Scott Kellen:

Yep. Good point.

Las Vegas Cris:

… is to verify that. And believe it or not, I have Detroit’s offense rated five notches above Seattle’s offense. I have them at the high teams offensively somehow. So they’ve got that running game going where they just grind it out and they move the ball. I’m shocked because it’s so often that they just pop on red zone and somehow they’re, or I hear it on the radio, they’re saying, “Well, Detroit’s driving again.” I’m like, who is this team? How are they driving? Who are they doing it with?

Scott Kellen:

It’s true.

Las Vegas Cris:

Somehow they’re moving the ball. And I mentioned it last week I believe, I didn’t care who the hell the quarterback was going to be last week, all these players have played. They have been so decimated with injuries. Usually you’ve got a handful or a lot of players that just never seen any time. Trust me. Every single Lion has seen time and has experience and is trying out to stay on this club. His spirits are really high anyway. So I don’t know what to expect. Do we get Swift back? I don’t know. And they should just sit him out for the rest of the season, frankly, and you’re not getting Hockenson back. And one of the wide receivers Johnson, I believe went on COVID this week. So I got to keep an eye on that.

Matt Landes:

One of the points you made, Cris about a lot of the Lions, in fact, I think in your words, all of the Lions, having some experience at this stage, reminiscent of a point I’ve heard a lot of sharp handicaps make this time of year in college football, where teams getting ready for big bowl games have freshmen that are essentially sophomores at this stage. With the Lions, anybody who’s a rookie or inexperience on that team, not really playing with the experience level or probably the confidence of a rookie, thanks to some of that experience. So for you and I, hopefully that can come into play on Sunday in Seattle.

Matt Landes:

And you touched on Goff’s record in bad weather games and when it’s cold out. I know there was a really famous game in Chicago a few years ago with the Rams, but just last postseason Goff, I know he got hurt during the game, but Goff took the Rams into Seattle and they won that one on the road. And then Goff pretty banged up, I think, acquitted himself quite well at Lambeau Field, even though the Packers ran away with that one. Goff wasn’t the problem, maybe a little bit noise seeping into my consciousness, trying to find silver linings with Goff in these types of conditions as a saving grace for this bet. But I just struggle to see how the Seahawks right now should be laying seven to pretty much anybody in the league, let alone a Lions team that’s surprisingly shown a lot of upside recently.

Las Vegas Cris:

What really sucks about going to Las Vegas or traveling sometimes is, you don’t like to be a small fish in a big pond. And Goff was in Los Angeles and he was the small fish and he comes to Detroit and while he wasn’t “a big fish,” the expectations were none on him. And maybe he’s adjusting that and feeling comfortable in his own skin and his surroundings and really turning the corner with what he may be able to do down the road. Just having no expectations put on him. So just something to consider why he’s doing better, so much better than maybe he was at the beginning of the season.

Scott Kellen:

I’ve said this a couple times and really haven’t taken advantage of it throughout the year, but he’s the perfect quarterback for this type of team. I was just looking back, you look at all the bad teams this year the Jets, the Jaguars, the Texans, the Giants, they got crap for quarterback that you can’t expect anything out of to do anything consistently good in most those of these teams-

Matt Landes:

Hey did you see what Davis Mills just did to the Chargers? That’s a star in the making.

Scott Kellen:

Yes. By the way, I said this a couple weeks ago, Davis, I maybe said it last week.

Las Vegas Cris:

Did we burn those [crosstalk 00:48:26] yet?

Matt Landes:

They’re on their way to Goodwill.

Scott Kellen:

He’s looked okay, right? But we know that was the debacle at the beginning and we’ll see what happens from Davis Mills, but Goff is perfect on a team that’s bad, right? But he, on the Rams, yes, you had all these expectations and he’s got to take them to the super bowl, which he did along with the defense and other stuff, but here, he just has to play quarterback and he’s one of the best guys on this team. It’s perfect for a bad team that’s always getting a whole bunch of points, because you’re at least getting some consistency from the quarterback position that’s not going to just destroy you in a game like these other bad teams. And they’ve had that all year and it’s probably one of the reasons that’s helped them. But Tim Boyle looked good last week too. [crosstalk 00:49:20].

Las Vegas Cris:

And I’d rather have Goff than Mayfield. Seriously.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah.

Las Vegas Cris:

I don’t want Mayfield.

Scott Kellen:

Heck yeah, right? Yeah. Is Jared Goff in the top 10 or 15 quarterbacks? No, probably not, right? Clearly. But he’s perfect for this team where this team’s at right now and where this team will be for a few years, at least.

Las Vegas Cris:

Sometimes a team just needs somebody like an Erik Krame or Trent Dilfer. When Erik Krame was with the Lions, he just didn’t make mistakes. He just didn’t do stupid stuff like Mayfield does. And if you can just have a quarterback limit the mistakes, your team can be very successful.

Matt Landes:

Yes. I think on that note, we can transition out of this week’s edition of Lions talk and bring up one of the teams from our live Q&A that’s got re referenced a moment ago, that being the Jaguars. Question notes, “The Jag’s team total under has been hitting a lot this season.” I’ll just pause and note, that may be the case, but certainly wasn’t when I bet them under 20 and a half last week. Nevertheless, the question continues, “Have you guys noticed any other slam dunk trends like that this season?” And I’ll give you guys a minute to think about it.

Matt Landes:

One that I’ve seen has been teams with COVID outbreaks or injury outbreaks. If you’re not getting down, as soon as the information breaks, just wait, chill out, let the steam come in and oftentimes, spading that steam right before kick can add some value. And while I haven’t measured it exactly throughout the course of this season, I know it’s a tough trend to necessarily quantify. I know week in and week out it’s been pretty successful for us and Cris we’ve talked about it last week. I think the Lions again, once Goff was ruled out in that game, was north of a touchdown for a decent bit.

Matt Landes:

The Bears also coming through last week, even though they were down to Nick Foles at quarterback. It’s not bulletproof. I think that we’ve seen some other teams like Washington being pretty banged up and they no-showed twice in just one week, last week. But overall, I’ve seen a lot of success with that. That’s been one of my bigger takeaways this season is that you can’t get down on information right away, just wait and oftentimes the market can overreact. Anything else standing out to you guys from a trends perspective over the course of this season?

Scott Kellen:

Well, one that we talked about today, I probably started this, I’m just looking 1, 2, 3, and their fifth game this year is that Dallas one that we pointed out, at home this year, Dallas has scored 41 against Philly, 36 against Carolina, 44 against the Giants. That’s where I think I started noticing that. They lost to Denver only scored 16, 43 against Atlanta, 33 against Vegas, 56 last week, 13 total at home, they are scoring a lot of points, 31 or more, like I said earlier, 14 of 18 games. That’s one that I have noticed and been on most of those weeks when they’ve been at home as well.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. You’ve been writing that pretty well, Scott. Cris, anything on your end?

Las Vegas Cris:

I consider myself ground zero or patient zero for the betting online community in sports because I am the person that places, the first bet. And as soon as my bet is placed, that team is stricken with COVID. So that’s the only true trend that I’ve noticed is that I’m going to be a stuck like a pig on several games every week. And touching back on what you said, Matt, I think that, that doesn’t just apply to COVID it applies to injuries also is, by the time you the audience learn about the information on an injury or a situation, the line’s already lost its value. You never bet based on “Well, so and so is out.” Or, “This guy’s injured or this guy’s coming back.” That’s already in the line. And what pushes the line a little bit too far are those people taking it past that point of where it should be.

Las Vegas Cris:

So like you said, Matt sometimes you can get in these games at the last minute and get some really nice value. And that’s what I felt like I did with Chicago. The line just moved too far and I took the Bears last week.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, it’s nice when it works out that way, and hopefully we can continue to deliver some positive results over the rest of the season. To quickly you recap our best bets for this show, as we put a bow on our early look at week 17, we’ve got Cris with a couple of plays the Eagles minus four at Washington, along with the Lions plus seven at Seattle. I’m with you, Cris on that Lions bet. And we also have Scott on over 51 and a half when the Cardinals take on the Cowboys in Dallas.

Matt Landes:

Guys, as we hit the home stretch here, we can, I think spend just a couple minutes talking about the notion of hedging. I think that becomes a big part of the consciousness for a lot of betters with regular seasoned win totals that are getting close to hitting, or maybe coming right down to the wire and people want to lock in a profit same with division futures or regular seasoned awards as we start to get clarity there. How do you guys approach the notion of potentially hedging late in the season when some of these bets are getting pretty close to being decided?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, yesterday was a perfect example where I had over bought on this Western Michigan plus four and a half and plus six, and it went to seven the other way. And I just kept watching it go watching it go, and I didn’t realize it was an early morning start. And I’m like, “I had a triple bet on this all of a sudden.” Because I knew the line was going to move and I just intended to buy it back and have a nice middle. But at some point your bets can become so good that there’s no point in buying it back, just take the win. So that’s what I ended up doing for the most part on that place.

Las Vegas Cris:

So be aware of your team totals. It’s easy to forget you may have them and that this week or next week, you might want to just keep an eye on what that result is going to mean for you and how that comes into play with teams that you’re considering betting, because a lot of these things can overlap. Different bets can overlap and be different bets. And I do those all the time. And as I mentioned earlier in the show, from a straight bet into a teaser and possibly you could have moved into another bet if I hadn’t liked that Dallas side.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. As you outline that, Cris, especially the point about once a bet becomes so good, it becomes an easier opportunity to lock in a profit, but perhaps even more detrimental to do. So I think it’s maybe coming down to the mindset, “Do I want to make a profit on this particular bet or do I want to make a profit on betting in the long term?” Because often, if you’re hedging, you’re paying the biggest second time.

Las Vegas Cris:

One thing I want to add is the attitude of, “Well, I’m buying extra to get off in game or I’m adding an extra game so I can hedge that last game.” Those aren’t necessarily great ideas because I’m really annoyed by how little value there is in in-game. I was excited at the beginning of this year because I was going to pay attention to it more. And they have a way with these algorithms, they know what you want. So it’s costing you extra money. It’s not like you can get off at 110. You’re getting off at a worse line and higher juice more times than not. And they’ve got it down pat, and it basically puts you in a situation of desperation only wagers as far as I’m concerned.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Scott, when it comes to any regular season when totals, division futures, and so on that are coming down to the wire here, what goes into your thought process as to whether or not to do anything to protect a position you’ve already taken?

Scott Kellen:

Well, I think, and Cris said it a little bit. I think, if you have a really good plus EV on this thing, I don’t give any money back and you realize you’re going to win some of those, you’re going to lose some of those. And again, sports betting, like a lot of things in life can come down to a mind game. You can have a really strong plus EV bet you decide not to hedge it because you think you’re in a really good position. You don’t want to add on extra juice, as you said, Matt, and then you lose. You’re like, “Damn, I could have had that.” But you have to understand what you had and you just live with that. So I try not to hedge if there’s a strong plus EV.

Scott Kellen:

Sometimes we make bets and they’re not a stronger bets. And so maybe it’s not as strong of a position or advantage that you have and maybe there’s something that’s worth hedging then that’s when I’ll tend to hedge a little bit more. If I think there’s a little bit less chance to succeed with this last bet. And this is a little bit different, but I had a buddy who likes to play where a sports book here in Vegas will give you NFL odds on what team’s going to score the most on a Sunday. And it’s just a Sunday games. In this week, he had Cincinnati at 15 to one and going into Sunday night game, they were the highest scoring team and based on the tiebreakers, and he did actually hedge with Dallas on the team total over, I don’t know how much he hedged, right? But he hedged that one because he felt like maybe they were going to, again, they had to score more than 41 points, which you don’t really expect.

Scott Kellen:

I told him, “I don’t know if they’re scoring 41, I feel pretty good about Dallas scoring the thirties.” He ended up hedging. That’s a very direct hedge by the way, obviously and sometimes you can hedge things that maybe aren’t as direct and you have to understand that as well. But if I’ve got a strong plus EV, I’m not touching it, I’m letting it go. And if it’s a little bit less, then possibly I’ll hedge a little bit.

Las Vegas Cris:

Recently I had a big money line parlay from MMA that was going to be kicking in and I wanted to hedge. And for whatever reason, I felt the best move was to just bet the other fighter in a parlay with something else I was going to be betting on, which was a completely different event. I combined it with a football game for the following day. Think about it. You’re in a no lose situation if you can parlay a straight bet into another straight bet for something you’re going to bet on anyway, at a different time. You’re just increasing that. Because if you lose, you were going to lose that money anyway on the hedge and if you win, you just added a lot more value to your upcoming bet.

Matt Landes:

I think that’s a good point to leave things off for now. Hopefully, for everybody checking this out, there’s some value between three different bets as we take our early look at week 17, plus some good food for thought about hedging decisions over a final couple of weeks of the regular season.

Matt Landes:

We’ll go ahead and take a moment to thank everybody for tuning in, for the YouTube audience, please remember to give us a quick thumbs up, and subscribe to the channel. And one friendly programming reminder we will be back with you at a special time ahead of New Year’s Eve to break down the rest of the weekend board. That’ll be Thursday at 3:00 PM, Eastern, noon Pacific, and we will see you then, right back here at BetUS, where the game begins.