NRFI and YRFI Best Bets: Astros-Yankees on Docket
As we plow toward mid-May in the majors, we’re finally starting to see a little bit of separation. Several teams are streaking away from some competition and multiple divisions already look like they could become two-team races (or even one-team in the case of the Dodgers).
Through it all, our Runs in First Inning machine keeps plugging away, trying to find you some sneaky good MLB bets to throw down on early action. Here are a few offerings for Wednesday.
Check out the latest MLB lines.
Astros at Yankees: Rodon and a Rookie
The Yankees are one of those streaking teams, having won four in a row. They and the Orioles are creating a gap in the AL East and New York has a great chance to stay hot Wednesday as it takes on last-place Houston.
Carlos Rodon gets the nod for the Bombers, who rolled 10-3 in the series opener. He’s coming off a rocky outing at Baltimore but overall has enjoyed a nice bounceback campaign to date.
Part of Rodon’s relative success has been built upon some solid early-inning efforts. He has a 2.57 ERA in the first inning, a 1.29 ERA in the second and another 2.57 mark in the third. Perhaps Houston gets to him at some point, but there’s at least a reasonable shot at some early zeroes.
The Astros remain a rather potent first-inning offense, ranking sixth in first-inning scoring percentage. However, each of their big guns are hitting in the 200s lifetime against Rodon and they tend to do most of their damage at home. Houston is 19th in the majors in road OPS at .650.
The Yankees once had a Righetti by the name of Dave, who was a strong starter before becoming an All-Star closer for the Pinstripers in the 1980s. On Wednesday, they’ll face Arrighetti … Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie right-hander making his fourth career start in a tough spot.
The 24-year-old has been knocked around quite a bit already. He’s given up 22 hits while issuing 10 walks in 16⅓ innings, so there’s been loads of traffic on the bases. The Yankees are sixth in baseball in first-inning scoring percentage at home (41.18) after jumping on Justin Verlander for three early runs on Tuesday.
Alex Verdugo with a rocket to right. 🚀 pic.twitter.com/GGDL2IRhHH
— MLB (@MLB) May 7, 2024
Size up the MLB odds and consider if a no-RIFI event is in the cards.
First Inning to Score: YES
White Sox at Rays: Flexen in Tampa
The Rays are streaking as well, carrying a five-game run into this matchup with the last-place White Sox. Aaron Civale has a chance to get on board when he toes the slab on Wednesday.
Civale started his Tampa Bay career on a great note but has hit a big wall, allowing 18 runs in 13⅔ innings over his last three outings. One of those three starts was a rocky effort at Chicago on April 27, when the White Sox got to the Northeastern product for six runs.
All six of those runs came between the fourth and fifth innings, and that’s usually where teams do their damage against Civale. He has a 3.86 ERA in the first and second innings and a 1.29 mark in the third. In his seven opening frames, Civale has 12 strikeouts against two walks while holding opponents to a .222 average.
Chicago is last in the AL in first-inning scoring percentage (19.44). It managed only a single seventh-inning tally in a loss at Tampa on Tuesday and should be an easy early target for Civale.
Chris Flexen will be on the mound for the White Sox. The one-time 14-game winner is trying to rediscover his form from a few years ago and has made some positive steps in that process, albeit with some bumps along the way. He owns a 2.84 ERA on the road and has a sub-1.00 mark between the first and second innings.
As with Civale, opponents have gotten to Flexen a little later. Tampa Bay is a middle-of-the-road first-inning offense. We like his chances to survive a couple of frames before getting hit.
First Inning to Score: NO
Orioles at Nationals: Washington Seeks Sweep
We nailed a scoreless first selection in this Beltway Series matchup on Tuesday. There’s a similar landscape in the finale of the two-game set and another great opportunity for a bet online.
Rookie Mitchell Parker makes his fifth career start for the Nationals. It’s been an uneven performance so far, but tossed seven scoreless in his only prior home start. The 24-year-old lefty has yielded four hits – all singles – while striking out six in his four first innings.
The Orioles, who were held to three hits – all singles – in Tuesday’s 3-0 loss to Washington, have scored 6.25% of the time in the first inning on the road. Everyone else in the majors is higher than 10%, just to show how dramatic that is.
Baltimore tends to hit lefties well, but this is its first look at Parker and we think it’ll take a few frames to size him up.
While Parker is new to the big leagues, Kyle Bradish is new to 2024, having made just one start after opening the season on the injured list with an elbow issue. He was just fine in his season debut last week against the Yankees, allowing a run while working into the fifth in a 7-2 win.
Bradish was dominant in the first inning during his breakout 2023 campaign, allowing three runs in 30 total frames. Two of his starts last year were vs the Nationals, resulting in 14 scoreless innings and a pair of victories.
Washington is dead last in the majors with an average of 0.26 runs per first inning. Expect Bradish to find some early success.
First Inning to Score: NO
Questions of the Day
Which other matchups are intriguing on Wednesday?
Chris Sale goes up against his former team in the Boston Red Sox in Atlanta. That game also features the return of Nick Pivetta from the IL.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.
