Red Bull Looking Vulnerable – Time to Bet the Field?

Why Red Bull is Not a Lock Bet to Clinch Title

Even with such short odds at -6600, we caution against betting the bank for Red Bull to win another title. The constructor is 52 points clear of Ferrari and 115 ahead of McLaren. However, these teams have made incremental gains since the last quarter of 2023. Each challenger now has one win apiece this 2024. And Norris’s win in Miami proves McLaren has the goods to keep contending.

“About time!” Norris said following his victory. “What a race. It’s been a long time coming, but finally, I’ve managed to do it. I’m so happy for my whole team, I finally delivered for them. A long day, tough race, but finally on top, so I’m over the moon.”

head high, your time has come https://t.co/cORoDMpstv pic.twitter.com/QLqyrT4oce

— bia (@LNFOURS) May 6, 2024

Norris was not the only McLaren driver who threatened Red Bull, however. Even his teammate, Oscar Piastri, briefly led the race and set the fastest lap. Had it not been for Carlos Sainz’s clash, Piastri may have joined Verstappen on the podium. Regardless, McLaren is breathing down Red Bull’s neck even if the standings show otherwise.

As for Ferrari, Sainz got hit with a five-second penalty for his collision. Otherwise, the Spaniard may have had another podium finish. He and Charles Leclerc have consistently been within the top six of every race.

Leclerc is just five points behind Sergio Perez for second place. The team has seemingly gotten over its faults from 2023. It is now a moderate favorite (-225) to win the F1 title if we exclude Red Bull.

Is Red Bull Falling Apart? Adrian Newey Jumping Ship

The Barbarian hordes destroyed the Roman Empire. But they only pulled it off due to the empire’s weakened state thanks to division and in-fighting. “Empires fall from within” is the term. And we may be seeing it with Red Bull. Shocking reports indicate that Adrian Newey, the team’s chief technical officer and pioneering engineer, will leave next year.

“I feel now is an opportune moment to hand that baton over to others and to seek new challenges for myself,” Newey said in a statement.

Adrian Newey: “There’s always room for improvement, we’re always searching for little bits and pieces (…)”

“There’s one feature on the RB20 that I am not terribily happy with this year, and that’s something that will either change later in the year, or probably more likely… pic.twitter.com/acUJEoOOtI

— RBR Daily (@RBR_Daily) May 8, 2024

To contextualize the severity of this loss. Picture a legendary coach like John Calipari leaving Kentucky. Newey was the brains behind Red Bull’s dynastic run. He came on board in 2006 and led the team to seven drivers’ titles, six constructors’ titles, 118 victories, and 101 poles. In short: Red Bull will not be the same in his absence.

“All of our greatest moments from the past 20 years have come with Adrian’s hand on the technical tiller,” Christian Horner, Red Bull’s team principal and CEO said.

Are Verstappen and Checo Leaving Red Bull?

On top of this, neither Verstappen nor Perez is sure to return to Red Bull next season. Rumors came out that Mercedes would offer Verstappen a record-breaking deal. A decision on Perez’s next deal could come soon. But it’s not guaranteed to be favorable for both sides.

Those who love betting on Formula 1 and Red Bull should get the most out of it this season. Next year could be a wide-open season, which is something we have not seen since 2009.

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