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College Football Best Predictions: Air Force Bounces Back

· Nov 10 - 4 minutes read

Fresh off their first loss, Air Force is an 19½-point road favorite over Hawaii. The over-under is set at 47 points in this Week 11 matchup. Let’s check out our NCAAF predictions for this contest.

Air Force is coming off a surprising 23-3 blowout loss to Army giving the team its first blemish. Hawaii pulled off a 27-14 victory over Nevada in Week 10.

College Football Best Predictions: Air Force Bounces Back

Prior to the loss, Air Force was one of the favorites to potentially represent the Group of Five in a New Year’s Six bowl game. The obvious question is how Air Force will bounce back from its worst performance. This is a more complicated question given the travel with this being a home game for Hawaii.

#25 Air Force loses first game of the year to Army 23-3 in Denver. Army is 3-6. pic.twitter.com/j3kwsHL0aq

— Mile High Minute🏔 (@mhmdenver) November 5, 2023

Here is a look at my college football pick for Air Force-Hawaii.

Air Force Run Over by Army

Air Force has had an impressive season but also benefits from a relatively weak schedule. Their slate of games currently puts the program at No. 103 in terms of strength of schedule.

For Hawaii, it was Pofele Ashlock who shined in the team’s win over Nevada. Ashlock posted 9 receptions for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Air Force will also need to prepare for quarterback Brayden Schager who is a dual-threat quarterback. Schager notched 49 rushing yards against Nevada in Week 10.

Air Force leans on its traditional triple-option attack, and Hawaii can expect a heavy dose of the ground game. Sportsbooks were likely surprised to see Air Force fail to score a touchdown against Army.

“We’ve had a pretty good go of it for a while this season, and yet (today) makes you realize how hard it is to win,” Air Force coach Troy Calhoun said after the team’s first loss, per The Denver Post. “Credit to Army — they played really hard, they played really well.”

Air Force (2023) triple option from T-Formation for the game winner pic.twitter.com/JU9SFkgwK6

— Last of the Fullbacks (@TheLastFullback) October 17, 2023

Air Force-Hawaii Pick: Falcons Cover Spread

Air Force quarterback Zac Larrier has been playing through a knee injury. It is reasonable to wonder if this is hampering his play.

Yet, this is a prime opportunity for Air Force to bounce back. Hawaii has one of the worst rushing defenses in the country (No. 108) allowing 181 yards per game on the ground. Air Force’s triple-option should thrive on Saturday.

I thought there could be a pathway for Hawaii to hang around at home, but its inability to stop the run makes this a bad matchup in the Vegas College Football odds. Look for Air Force to get back on track with a blowout victory in Hawaii while covering the spread.