First Five Innings: Best MLB Picks on the Worst Teams
Monday night baseball brings us Game 1 of perhaps the most forgettable series thus far in 2024. The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins, two of baseball’s worst teams, are set to battle it out for the title of biggest disappointment of the year.
Check in on your friends who are Chicago White Sox fans pic.twitter.com/RQslk1OjNr
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) April 21, 2024
Ordinarily, this game might not catch my eye, but a careful examination of several key stats and trends has led me to a potentially valuable MLB betting opportunity on the White Sox. It’s a daring move, but one that could pay off.
Before I come to my senses, let’s dive into why I’m betting on the worst team in baseball to start the week.
F5 Pick: White Sox +½
It’s a surprising turn of events as my MLB pick recommendations now point to the struggling Chicago White Sox. With a dismal 3-18 record, they’re currently vying for the title of the worst team in the MLB. Their performance is so poor that they’re on track to shatter records for losses, a feat currently held by the New York Mets (120 games lost).
Dorktown: Chicago White Sox! pic.twitter.com/xxhWbUrEji
— Secret Base (@secretbase) April 20, 2024
Let’s not forget they are also on a three-game losing streak, have scored just 45 runs in 21 games, and are just one of two teams hitting below .200.
Despite their recent struggles, the White Sox presents a sound investment opportunity. Their current form, combined with the Twins’ own issues, could tip the scales in their favor.
But here’s the thing. The Twins are also a pile of hot garbage, and the other MLB team is hitting below .200 in the year.
This matchup is like when a movable object meets a stoppable force. While the White Sox are a worse team, Monday is their day to shine. At least in the first five innings against a team that is 2-6 at home.
One of the reasons for my sudden confidence in the White Sox is the Twins’ poor performance in the early innings. Minnesota is so weak in the early game that they rank last in F5, betting against the MLB spread at 6-12 and an ROI of -36.94. If you had the misfortune of betting on the Twins F5 ATS in every game this year, you’d be down around -7.71 units.
Predictably, the White Sox aren’t exactly setting the world on fire in this category, but at 8-11, their ROI of -15.24 is far less of an eyesore.
the minnesota twins if you scored runs by popping the ball up pic.twitter.com/xo6hMU62JP
— its over (aidan) (@MVPrielipp) April 16, 2024
Additionally, as awful as the White Sox have been in the runs department, the Twins, who “lead” the MLB in the fewest runs, scored in the F5 innings at 1.35. The White Sox aren’t far behind in 29th place at 1.38 and 1.60 on the road. Bad, but not quite as bad.
The MLB odds are also in our favor here, with the ChiSox +105 to cover the first five innings spread against an equally weak opponent.
On a side note, considering how pathetic both offenses have been, I’m also leaning towards an F5 bet on the Under. Neither team has good Under ROI, but they don’t have the opportunity to play such poor offenses regularly.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.
