Best Thursday NBA Player Props: ‘Amen’ to These Picks

We thought trouble could be brewing in Milwaukee after Giannis Antetokounmpo went down with a calf injury, but the Bucks made a statement win in his absence, defeating Orlando 117-99. Damian Lillard didn’t let us down, cashing over his 27½ points and finishing the win with 29.

Meanwhile, the Western Conference standings continue to shake up every night. The Phoenix Suns are desperately clawing to climb into the sixth seed and out of the Play-In after they got revenge on the Clippers.

The game of the night was in Denver, with the Nuggets defeating the Timberwolves 116-107. With two games left to play, the defending champs solidified their position as the top seed in the West.

Updated West Standings ‼️

– Nuggets move to the top seed in West
– Lakers and Warriors lock in their spots in the #SoFiPlayIn

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Despite the five-game schedule, these Thursday games are worth watching. We have plenty of player props to select from for Thursday night. There are still NBA game odds today to sift through. Let’s get to the best NBA bets for tonight.

Best NBA Player Props Today

1. NBA Player Prop: Rockets PG Fred VanVleet Over 7½ Assists (-137)

I heavily considered backing Jalen Green, but the lines are too juiced for my liking. The Houston Rockets have been eliminated from playoff contention, and they will travel to Salt Lake City to battle the Utah Jazz. I’m going back to the well with point guard Fred VanVleet. Houston remains without starting center Alperen Sengun. Sengun was leading Houston in usage, so some other guys have had to step up in his absence.

VanVleet has been a leader and top distributor in March. FVV is averaging 8.3 assists in the 15 games since Sengun went down. The Jazz give up the most assists per game in the NBA and FVV averages 13.7 potential assists without Sengun. In the three prior meetings with Utah this season, he finished with 7, 7, and 6 assists.

In the first game, Sengun was active, and more recently, VanVleet played just 28 minutes in a blowout. His recent low assists tallies could be chalked up to blowouts and early foul trouble. He has gone over this number in three of his last four games overall. I’m expecting VanVleet to contribute in a big way tonight alongside Jalen Green. I’m firing up FVV again with confidence.

2. NBA Player Prop: Rockets PF Amen Thompson Over 9½ Rebounds (+102)

Amen Thompson will likely remain in Houston’s starting lineup tonight, and I’m going to the window on the rookie. I love this price at even money! We’re already backing VanVleet, and the Jazz have no motivation to win whereas the Rockets have no motivation to lose for tanking purposes. We know that Rockets do-it-all center Alperen Sengun is likely done for the season after he suffered a severe ankle sprain and bone bruise in his knee. Sengun will be missed because he leads the Rockets in scoring and rebounding.

I expect Thompson, the fourth overall pick in 2023, to continue to see significant minutes. He is averaging 29.8 minutes without Sengun. He has played 15 games without Sengun, averaging 8.7 rebounds, going over this line six times. The Jazz are technically a sound rebounding team, but they have a ton of starters listed as out ahead of tonight’s game. Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, and Walker Kessler are just a few of the bigs they will play without tonight. Point guard Fred VanVleet is a veteran who could sit early in a blowout, but Thompson as a rookie is blowout-proof as Houston will want him to get significant minutes, win or lose.

3. NBA Player Prop: Kings SF Keegan Murray Over 2½ Threes Made (-176)

I hear you all groaning at this price. You could sip the juice or play this up to over 3½ at even money. I’m sipping the juice and getting prepared early for the weekend. Tonight, the Kings will host the Pelicans, who have won all four meetings this season. Both teams are jockeying for playoff seeding, and this TNT showdown should have playoff-level intensity.

Keegan Murray has been forced to step up over the last two weeks since Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter went down with injuries. This hasn’t been a problem for the second-year man, who has knocked down at least three shots from beyond the arc in five of seven games this season with Monk sidelined. Murray’s home-road splits are evident as he is making 2.7 three-point attempts at home compared to just 1.9 on the road.

The Pelicans allow the fifth-most threes per game. They allow the second-highest percentage of opponents points from three-point land this season and allow their opponents to live and die by the three. Fire up Murray!

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