NCAAF Outlook: Conference Realignment Shakes Up Odds
Conference realignment has been changing the college football landscape for years, but it would be hard to find a year with more teams heading to greener pastures. Shed a tear for the Pac-12, which has gone the way of the Big 8 and Southwest Conference.
The college football odds will be impacted by the teams in new conferences during the 2024 college football season.
Five of the players listed by the Las Vegas odds with the best chance of winning the Heisman Trophy are either on teams that change conferences or on a new team.
Georgia leads the way at +330 in the odds of winning the national title followed by Ohio State at +425. Texas, which moved from the Big 12 to the SEC, has +700 odds to win it all.
Here’s a look at where the new teams are in the pecking order in their new conferences.
ACC Title Odds
Southern Methodist, which comes over from the American Athletic Conference, has the seventh-best odds to win the ACC title. California and Stanford join the ACC from the Pac-12. The Bears are 10th at +5000 with Stanford (+50000) having the longest odds to win the ACC according to the BetUS sportsbook odds.
Stanford plays at Clemson on Sept. 28 so it shouldn’t take long to see how the Cardinal will match up in the ACC. On the same day, Florida State heads to Dallas to face SMU while California welcomes Miami to town on Oct. 5
Florida State and Clemson fought it out for ACC supremacy and they are currently the co-leaders with +260 odds to win the conference followed by Miami (+450) and Louisville (+550).
Big Ten Title Odds
Reigning national champion Michigan is not only behind longtime rival Ohio State in the Big Ten championship odds, but new addition Oregon (+250) is between Ohio State and Michigan when it comes to winning the Big Ten.
USC quarterback Caleb Williams was the top pick in the recent NFL Draft but the Trojans could still make some noise in the Big Ten after moving over from the Pac-12. The Trojans (+2500) are fifth in the Big Ten title odds.
USC opens the season against LSU in one of the most anticipated early-season games, with the Trojans opening Big Ten play against Michigan on Sept. 21. Oregon’s Big Ten debut is against fellow former Pac-12 team UCLA.
Washington and Michigan will square off on Oct. 5 in a rematch of the national title game. Both teams saw their quarterbacks (Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy) get selected in the first 10 picks in the NFL Draft and each team has a new head coach so things will look much different.
Michigan football players brought the CFP national championship trophy to the NFL Draft. 🏆
Video: @NFL pic.twitter.com/J8mVYdliXc
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) April 26, 2024
Washington, coming off a run to the national title game, is tied for seventh at +5000 while UCLA (+8000) is tied for 10th.
Big 12 Title Odds
With Oklahoma and Texas leaving for the SEC, the Big 12 is lagging behind in the college football arms race.
Utah has been in the thick of the Pac-12 title chase in recent years and is tied with Kansas State with +330 odds to win the Big 12.
Another former Pac-12 mainstay team could be a team to watch with Arizona fourth at +750 in the Big 12 title odds.
For all the headlines that head coach Deion Sanders generates at Colorado, the Buffaloes are just 11th at +3500 in the odds of winning the Big 12. Arizona State (+10000) is only ahead of BYU and Houston in the Big 12 odds.
Utah jumps right into things with a Week 2 matchup with Baylor, Arizona opens conference play against Kansas State and Colorado faces Baylor on Sept. 21.
SEC Title Odds
The rich get richer with Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC.
Georgia is still the favorite in the SEC and in the national title odds. However, Texas is putting pressure on the Bulldogs with +250 odds to win the SEC. The teams meet on Oct. 19 in Austin the week after Texas and Oklahoma meet for the first time as SEC rivals.
Oklahoma is ninth at +4000 in the SEC title odds.
It will be worth watching how Texas and Oklahoma adapt to life in the SEC. Alabama is trending in the wrong direction after the retirement of legendary head coach Nick Saban.
Questions of the Day
Which team in a new conference has the best odds of winning the national title?
Texas is third at +700 in the odds of winning the national title with Oregon fourth at +900 in the championship odds.
Who are the current favorites to win the Heisman Trophy?
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers lead the way with +800 odds of winning the Heisman Trophy. Ewers is also second at +400 in the odds of being the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
