Guardians Biggest Surprise If AL Playoffs Started Today

Texas joins Cleveland and the New York Yankees as the division leaders going into Monday’s action.

When looking at the MLB futures odds, the New York Yankees have the best odds at +325 to win the American League championship followed by Houston at +450. The Baltimore Orioles (+550) and Texas Rangers (+600) aren’t far behind.

Sorry to See the A’s Leave Town

After losing a series to the Yankees, the schedule maker was kind to the Guardians as Cleveland took three out of four games from the Boston Red Sox and then swept a three-game series against the visiting Oakland Athletics.

There’s nothing quite like playing seven of the first 22 games against the lowly Athletics to send a team soaring to the top of the standings.

ICYMI: Josh Naylor’s 3 RBIs sends Guardians to 6-2 win, sweep of A’s and continues best start since 1999 | AP News https://t.co/AXpZMae4Xs

— Tom Withers (@twithersAP) April 22, 2024

Despite a 5.23 ERA in two starts, Logan Allen is 2-0 against Oakland while eight pitchers have 0.00 ERA against the A’s.

Josh Naylor is batting .375 with five extra-base hits and eight RBIs while catcher David Fry has a .462 average. Five hitters with at least 10 at-bats against Oakland are hitting over .350.

After another series with the Red Sox, things could get a little more challenging with the next six games against either the Atlanta Braves or the Houston Astros.

Cleveland’s three-game lead in the American League Central Division is the most among the six division leaders.

The Yankees are 5-5 over the last 10 games. Baltimore picked up two games on the Yankees during that stretch to move a half-game in back of the Yankees in the AL East.

The Yankees remained in first place as Luis Gil picked up his first MLB win in three years in a 5-4 win over Tampa Bay. Gil pitched into the sixth inning and allowed two hits to go with nine strikeouts. Alex Verdugo had a two-run single and later scored in a four-run sixth inning to give Gil just enough run support to pick up the win.

The Yankees are sitting in first place even though Aaron Judge is batting only .183 and Gleyber Torres has a .200 batting average.

In the AL West, Texas is still in first place despite a 5-5 record at home. Seattle is closing fast after winning back-to-back series.

First place is on the line when the Mariners and Rangers meet in a three-game series starting on Tuesday.

Let’s Get Wild

While Baltimore has yet to move by the Yankees in the AL East, the Orioles currently have the best record among the non-division leaders in the American League. With a 14-7 record, Baltimore is on pace to win 108 games even though pitcher Kyle Bradish has yet to throw a pitch this season.

Youngsters Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Jordan Westburg have already combined for 16 home runs.

The next six games for the Orioles come against teams with losing records before a series with the Yankees begins later this month.

Kansas City continues to be a surprise in the early portion of the season. The Royals lead the American League with nine home wins. Shortstop Bobby Witt figures to be in the thick of the Most Valuable Player race. He is hitting .300 with 14 extra-base hits. Getting first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino back has been a huge boost. Brady Singer and Seth Lugo lead a solid starting rotation.

The Boston Red Sox just swept the Pittsburgh Pirates and currently hold down the final playoff spot in the American League with Toronto and Detroit just a half-game back.

The Toronto Blue Jays are -13 in run differential so time will tell if the Blue Jays can stay in playoff contention and continue to defy the baseball odds.

A Look at the AL Bracket

The Guardians and Yankees would advance into the Division Series round if the playoffs began today.

The wild-card matchups would feature Boston playing Texas and Baltimore meeting up with Kansas City, with the Yankees and the Guardians awaiting the winners.

The Houston Astros had the best odds of winning the World Series among American League teams when the season began. They are currently five games behind Texas in the AL West and six games back of Boston in the wild-card race.

Only the Oakland Athletics had longer championship odds among American League teams than the Royals. Kansas City was priced at +12500 to win the World Series according to our sportsbook odds.

Playing the Numbers Game

If the playoff bracket was determined by records against the run line, it would look a little different.

The Guardians not only have the best outright record in the American League, they also lead the majors with a 16-6 mark against the run line. Baltimore (13-8 ATS) would also be a division leader while in the AL West, the Los Angeles Angels’ record of 11-11 is the best of a mediocre group.

Kansas City, Boston and Toronto would be the wild-card teams with the Yankees and the Rangers having some work to do.

What About Individual Awards?

Just looking at the early numbers, Juan Soto of the Yankees would be among the front-runners in the AL Most Valuable Player race. He is batting .337 with 10 extra-base hits and an on-base percentage of .456.

Baltimore’s Jordan Westburg, Houston’s Jose Altuve and Josh Naylor of the Guardians would be other players to keep an eye on. Former MVP Mike Trout leads the American League with eight home runs while Kansas City’s Salvador Perez is hitting .333 with 22 RBIs. That ties him with Adolis Garcia of the Rangers for the AL lead.

Who had Boston’s Kutter Crawford, Toronto’s Jose Berrios, Oakland’s Pete Blackburn and Reid Detmers of the Angels with the best ERAs in the American League among qualified pitchers?

The three pitchers from the American League with the most strikeouts all have ERAs over 4.00 so they would be back a bit in the Cy Young odds.

Baltimore’s Colton Cowser, who is batting .377 with five home runs and 16 RBIs, is the player to beat in the Rookie of the Year race. After a slow start, Texas outfielder Evan Carter is starting to find his way. Relievers who aren’t closers struggle to gain traction in the awards race, but Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis has yet to allow a run in 10.2 innings and he has 15 strikeouts.

Questions of the Day