Mavericks vs Suns NBA Betting Picks: Durant Carries Phoenix

It’s been a tough stretch recently for both the Suns and Mavericks heading into Christmas Day, largely due to a brutal run of injuries on both sides. Phoenix has won one of its last five and 3 of the last 11 while Dallas got back in the win column on Saturday after losing three consecutive games and four of five prior to that.

Both teams have faced some tough matchups over those stretches, though, and while the Suns are expected to be without Bradley Beal and the Mavs likely without Kyrie Irving, we’ll see a ton of Durant, Booker and Doncic here. That trio alone should create a must-see matchup and one of the most interesting NBA betting predictions of the Christmas slate.

Mavericks vs Suns Odds and Spread

Mavericks vs Suns Betting Trends

• The Mavericks have covered the spread in five of the last six meetings against the Suns, although Phoenix has the most recent cover on March 5, 2023.
• Three of the last five meetings between the Mavericks and Suns have played to the over
• The Suns are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games
• Phoenix is 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games
• Prior to the most recent five games as both teams battle injuries, the five games prior, the Suns were 3-2 to the over and the Mavericks were 4-1 to the over.
• Phoenix is 16-12 in favor of the over this season and Dallas is 19-10 to the over.
• The over has hit in 11 of the Suns’ 15 home games this season
• The Mavericks are 2-8 against the spread as an underdog this season

Taking Over 235 in Mavericks vs Suns

It’s never easy to bet against Doncic, especially in a primetime matchup like this one. I think the stars on both sides show up in a big way here, and we see another high-scoring affair, which has happened in two of the last three meetings between these teams. In the last matchup in March, the two combined to score 256 points and two games prior to that, the total checked in at 241.

This is a tough game to call and arguably the toughest of the NBA basketball picks for Christmas, but points shouldn’t be an issue for either side in this matchup.

Lean Suns to Cover -5

With the Suns’ recent struggles, it looks on the surface a bit surprising to see them favored by this many over the Doncic-led Mavericks. But due to injuries, including the absence of star Irving, Phoenix could actually prove to be a popular NBA betting pick.

The Mavericks have also been without rookie Dereck Lively II, Maxi Kleber and Josh Green of late.

While injuries have hit both teams over recent weeks, the Suns will likely be without Beall, who’s expected to be shut down until January with an ankle injury.

One key piece of news that favors Phoenix, though, is that big man Jusuf Nurkic is expected to return, and that should help to make a major impact as the Suns have struggled with consistency inside during his absence.

While the Suns aren’t my favorite play laying this many points, I like the Durant and Booker combo at home on Christmas night with a fanbase hungry to see an impressive win.

Avoiding Moneyline in Mavericks vs Suns on Christmas

I’m not taking the Suns with the big odds on the moneyline here, and while I have some intrigue in a potential glance at the Mavericks’ moneyline at solid odds, I’ll just avoid the spot here. If you think the Mavericks can cover the five points and this game stays tight late, then it’s worth showing some love to them at +170 odds to win outright.

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Mavericks vs Suns Prediction

Phoenix Suns 127, Dallas Mavericks 119

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