Nuggets ATS Pick at Home vs Grizzlies

· Dec 28 - 5 minutes read

The mood around the Memphis Grizzlies has shifted since Ja Morant returned from his 25-game suspension four games ago. It has also shifted some betting lines for the NBA, with the Grizzlies winning every game in which Morant has played. However, the Denver Nuggets, on the road, will be their biggest test.

In the Grizzlies’ last win, they extended their winning streak with Morant to four, beating the New Orleans Pelicans in overtime 116-115. The Nuggets extended their winning streak to five by beating the Golden State Warriors 120-114 on Christmas Day in a game that had some controversy.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets Game Information

Game: Grizzlies (10-19) vs Nuggets (22-10)
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Day/Time: Thursday, Dec. 28, 9:00 p.m. ET
Grizzlies vs Nuggets Live Stream: NBA Game Pass

The Nuggets are one of the best teams in the league. They are the reigning NBA champions and second in the Western Conference. However, the Grizzlies are a complicated team, and a win against one of the best in the league could drastically change their future odds in the NBA.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets Odds and Spreads

Betting Odds Calculator

Grizzlies vs Nuggets Betting Trends

Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater.
Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-0-1 in Nuggets last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 home games.
Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 games as a home favorite.

Against the Spread Pick: Nuggets -7½

The Grizzlies are coming into this game super hot. They are riding the coattails of the return of Morant, and he is averaging 28.8 points, which is the main reason for this four-game winning streak.

However, the Nuggets are still the reigning champions and have continued to look like one of the best teams in the league. Even in an off-shooting night for Nikola Jokic, going 4 of 12 from the field, he still finished the last game with 26 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists. Jokic easily got to the free throw line, going 18 of 18 from the stripe. NBA odds will back him regaining his shooting touch against the Grizzlies and filling up the stat sheet.

On top of that, every starter scored 16 or more points in the win over the Warriors. Jamal Murray had 28 points while Michael Porter Jr. had 19. The bench did struggle, but with the starting lineup looking that good, it is hard not to be confident about the Nuggets.

Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon suffered lacerations to his face and hand resulting from a dog bite on Christmas Day. Team says he is in good condition and will remain away from the team while he recovers.

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) December 27, 2023

The one issue that could shift some NBA lines is the news about Aaron Gordon now missing time. Gordon was bitten by a dog on Christmas Day, leading him to be out for an undisclosed number of games. However, the Nuggets have a good enough team to withstand his absence.

Over/Under Pick: Under 224½

Looking over the history of this matchup makes this game a clear option for NBA picks to hit the under. The Grizzlies and Nuggets have hit the under in eight of their last 10 games when facing each other.

On top of that, the Grizzlies are starting to find their rhythm defensively. Morant has sparked the team, but the return of Marcus Smart, who was out with an injury for 17 games, made his return against the Pelicans. Smart had five steals in the win, and the former Defensive Player of the Year will be on the court with the reigning DPOY, Jaren Jackson Jr.

Furthermore, despite the Nuggets’ elite play recently, they have not put up a lot of points. They have a record of 2-7-1 when it comes to over/under in the last 10 games.

Player Prop Pick: Ja Morant Under 27.5 Points (-110)

Despite how well Morant has played since returning to the court, he will eventually start regressing. That could happen in this game. Morant is listed as questionable with an illness but will likely play, given how important it could be if the Grizzlies could beat the Nuggets. On top of that, he has yet to find his shot from outside, and if the drives are taken away, his scoring production will take a massive hit.

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