Value Betts? Pitching Adjustments Lower Mookie’s MVP Chances

Mookie Betts is also a bowler and has bowled five 300 games during competition. pic.twitter.com/U3RjsrOWqI

— BaseballHistoryNut (@nut_history) May 3, 2024

Betts’ Numbers are Dwindling

Before I get into the why, let’s go over why I’m concerned about Betts’s betting future regarding his quest for the MVP.

There is no denying that Betts came out hotter than a $2 pistol, with a .340 batting average in April with 12 extra-base hits, 13 RBIs and 19 walks. He only hit two home runs, but his ability to put the ball in play led BetUS Sportsbook to list him as the odds-on favorite to win the MVP over teammate Shohei Ohtani (+500).

At one point in April, Betts was hitting an absurd .388. He was so hot that I recall writing an article about whether he, or anyone else, could finish the year with a .400 or better average. If you look at his season stats, Betts still is hitting a lofty .349. Ohtani leads the bigs with a .365 average and could make a run at the Triple Crown. I like the idea so much that I decided that will be my MLB article for Thursday.

Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani rank 1st and 2nd in the majors in WAR. If they finish 1-2 this season, they’ll be the first teammates to do so since Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez with the 1996 Mariners. https://t.co/vT8gaK0Rqb pic.twitter.com/RhwkEcfgJc

— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) May 8, 2024

Returning to Betts, why would I fade a guy sitting .349 from the MVP race? The reason is simple. He’s hitting just .250 this month, hasn’t hit a home run since April 12 and tallied zero XBHs in about two weeks.

While the reason for my skepticism is easy to explain, the why will require a bit more explaining. See, Betts isn’t hitting like crap because he forgot how to hit. I think the issue comes down to pitchers figuring out how to pitch to or, more accurately, around the talented infielder.

Why Betts is Struggling

First, let’s discuss the MLB in-zone rate. Not to be confused with the fielding metric zone rating, the in-zone rate is how often a hitter sees balls in the strike zone. The in-zone rate can tell us a few things – in this case, how much effort pitchers give toward pitching around a hitter’s strengths. This is particularly difficult for Betts because he’s such a talented hitter.

Every hitter has weak spots, but Betts is good against almost every strike a pitcher can chuck his way. He doesn’t hit balls high in the zone very well, but he knows this and doesn’t swing at them often. To get the best of Betts, you must do your best Bob Ross impression and paint the edges like happy little trees. If you miss up, he will lay off; if you miss low, he will punish you.

It seems like pitchers are catching on a bit or are just tired of getting wrecked by Betts because he’s seeing fewer and fewer balls in the zone. His in-zone rate has fallen from around 50% in 2023 to 45.5% in 2024. To him, a staggering 10% of pitches are in the waste zone. Basically, in the dirt or, in the words of Bob Uecker, “just a bit outside.” These are pitches that MLB talents don’t swing at.

Furthermore, 24.4% of pitchers have been in the chase zone. These pitches are hittable, but trying is risky business, especially when they are low and away.

With pitchers being more careful, Betts has seen the fewest pitches in the heart of the zone in his career, with just 23% of them coming right down Main Street. This is not only his lowest percentage to date but also ranks him eight lowest among qualified players. He’s also leading the MLB in walks, which could be helpful when making daily MLB picks on player props.

To put it simply, pitchers are avoiding him more than they ever have. But this isn’t just a case of pitching around Betts. It’s more of a strategic attack on the strike zone’s edges to force the former MVP to make tough decisions on what to swing at and what to lay off. The outside corner is getting pounded, and if his stats over the last couple of weeks are any indication, it’s working.

Betts is one of the best hitters in the game, so I expect him to try and adjust to this tactic. He already has and is setting up closer to the plate than usual. This gives him a better chance at hitting those outside and away balls.

Betts could recover. He’s a top-tier talent, but as a betting man, I think Ohtani has a far better chance of winning the MVP in 2024. With the Vegas betting odds where they are right now and Ohtani leading the MLB in average, home runs, hits and doubles, my money is on Showtime.

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